The Breakout Collection + The Glove Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Prices by float: ночной проверки нет, числа ниже — оценка с учётом float

Average profit at most · with float −447 370.44₸

Invest at least 1 618 727.22₸

Average return 1 171 356.84₸

ROI −27.6%

Chance of profit 16%

With float: invest at least 1 618 727.22 ₸, profit at most −447 370.44 ₸

float premium: at least 887 103 ₸

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

A more profitable set was dropped: +583 441.03 ₸ по средним

The gain is understated: 4 outcomes have no price, that is 10.6% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat / Market.CSGO: without them the profit is −640 278.95 ₸

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 2 шт., годных ≈2

×2

M4A1-S | Cyrex

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0067

208 281.96 ₸

at 104 140.98

if this one runs out, you can take

P90 | Asiimov (Factory New) — 135 568.49 ₸ +31 427.51 ₸ per item · on the market 33 · buy 0.0000–0.0124

Steam

×3

SSG 08 | Dragonfire

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0067

512 577.04 ₸

at 170 859.01

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New) — 249 135.45 ₸ +78 276.44 ₸ per item · on the market 45 · buy 0.0000–0.0094

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 720 859.00 ₸ +450 497.84 (+62.5%)

The gain is understated: 4 outcomes have no price, that is 11.5% of the chance

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 1 шт., годных ≈2

×1

M4A1-S | Cyrex

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0067

104 140.98 ₸

at 104 140.98

if this one runs out, you can take

P90 | Asiimov (Factory New) — 135 568.49 ₸ +31 427.51 ₸ per item · on the market 33 · buy 0.0000–0.0124

Steam

×4

SSG 08 | Dragonfire

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0067

683 436.05 ₸

at 170 859.01

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New) — 249 135.45 ₸ +78 276.44 ₸ per item · on the market 45 · buy 0.0000–0.0094

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 787 577.03 ₸ +583 441.03 (+74.1%)

The gain is understated: 4 outcomes have no price, that is 9.6% of the chance

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 3 шт., годных ≈2

×3

M4A1-S | Cyrex

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0067

312 422.94 ₸

at 104 140.98

if this one runs out, you can take

P90 | Asiimov (Factory New) — 135 568.49 ₸ +31 427.51 ₸ per item · on the market 33 · buy 0.0000–0.0124

Steam

×2

SSG 08 | Dragonfire

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0067

341 718.02 ₸

at 170 859.01

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New) — 249 135.45 ₸ +78 276.44 ₸ per item · on the market 45 · buy 0.0000–0.0094

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 654 140.97 ₸ +317 554.60 (+48.5%)

The gain is understated: 4 outcomes have no price, that is 8.7% of the chance

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 4 шт., годных ≈2

×4

M4A1-S | Cyrex

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0067

416 563.92 ₸

at 104 140.98

if this one runs out, you can take

P90 | Asiimov (Factory New) — 135 568.49 ₸ +31 427.51 ₸ per item · on the market 33 · buy 0.0000–0.0124

Steam

×1

SSG 08 | Dragonfire

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0067

170 859.01 ₸

at 170 859.01

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New) — 249 135.45 ₸ +78 276.44 ₸ per item · on the market 45 · buy 0.0000–0.0094

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 587 422.93 ₸ +184 611.42 (+31.4%)

What you get 37 outcomes

Profitable outcome 26%
Losing outcome 63%
Above the Steam cap 11%

Order

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

855 607.85 ₸ 3.08%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.013378

639 049.50 ₸ 3.08%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

457 569.09 ₸ 3.08%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Butterfly Knife | Stained

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

454 455.51 ₸ 3.08%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

590 097.79 ₸ 3.08%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Butterfly Knife | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

316 968.76 ₸ 3.08%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

401 986.31 ₸ 3.08%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 997 880.51 ₸ 3.08%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Butterfly Knife | Night

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

586 114.02 ₸ 3.08%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Butterfly Knife | Scorched

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

384 797.18 ₸ 3.08%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Butterfly Knife | Safari Mesh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 3.08%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

425 540.38 ₸ 3.08%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Butterfly Knife

no wear

682 808.14 ₸ 3.08%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Spruce DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

339 123.99 ₸ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Badlands

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

305 948.51 ₸ 2.50%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Leather

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

385 530.54 ₸ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

522 196.93 ₸ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Eclipse

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

296 520.17 ₸ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Spearmint

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

2 467 228.96 ₸ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Boom!

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

348 515.49 ₸ 2.50%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Cool Mint

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

987 674.55 ₸ 2.50%

sell on Market.CSGO

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Lunar Weave

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

516 080.91 ₸ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Convoy

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

235 405.31 ₸ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

853 344.34 ₸ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

★ Driver Gloves | Diamondback

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 2.50%

Steam

at a loss

★ Specialist Gloves | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

207 797.91 ₸ 2.50%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 923 985.90 ₸ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 2.50%

Steam

★ Specialist Gloves | Foundation

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 2.50%

Steam

in profit

best

★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

13 264 185.01 ₸ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

4 025 431.16 ₸ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Arid

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 493 918.43 ₸ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

9 681 039.75 ₸ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Charred

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

328 739.75 ₸ 2.50%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Guerrilla

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

139 151.49 ₸ 2.50%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Bronzed

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

190 298.67 ₸ 2.50%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Snakebite

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

159 966.99 ₸ 2.50%

sell on Market.CSGO

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Breakout Collection + The Glove Collection

Variant 2 only The Glove Collection Variant 3 The Operation Hydra Collection instead of The Breakout Collection Variant 4 The Chroma Collection instead of The Breakout Collection Variant 5 The Operation Broken Fang Collection instead of The Breakout Collection Variant 6 The Danger Zone Collection instead of The Glove Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +441 019.51 ₸ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +449 059.47 ₸ historical median

6% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Breakout Collection and The Glove Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 15 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3402123 · The Glove Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit 489 591.23₸ · invest 696 247.91₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.008445 instead of 0.006756
Craft 3402124 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 489 591.23₸ · invest 696 247.91₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.008445 instead of 0.006756
Craft 3401633 · The Glove Collection + The Breakout Collection · profit 450 497.82₸ · invest 720 859.00₸
outcome without sales no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist
Craft 3401557 · The Glove Collection + The Arms Deal 3 Collection · profit 394 809.76₸ · invest 632 223.46₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

CZ75-Auto | Victoria (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.007796 instead of 0.006756
Craft 3401558 · The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 394 809.76₸ · invest 632 223.46₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

CZ75-Auto | Victoria (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.007796 instead of 0.006756
Craft 3402477 · The eSports 2013 Winter Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 392 205.09₸ · invest 634 828.13₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | X-Ray (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.005334 instead of 0.006756
Craft 3402478 · The Glove Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection · profit 392 205.09₸ · invest 634 828.13₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | X-Ray (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.005334 instead of 0.006756
Craft 3402407 · The Glove Collection + The Gamma Collection · profit 384 869.41₸ · invest 645 790.51₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.006963 instead of 0.006756
Craft 3402408 · The Gamma Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 384 869.41₸ · invest 645 790.51₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.006963 instead of 0.006756
Craft 3402193 · The Glove Collection + The Dreams & Nightmares Collection · profit 380 790.01₸ · invest 616 717.96₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.007949 instead of 0.006756
Craft 3402194 · The Dreams & Nightmares Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 380 790.01₸ · invest 616 717.96₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.007949 instead of 0.006756
Craft 3402451 · The Prisma 2 Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 371 594.94₸ · invest 616 717.96₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.008445 instead of 0.006756
Craft 3402452 · The Glove Collection + The Prisma 2 Collection · profit 371 594.94₸ · invest 616 717.96₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.008445 instead of 0.006756
Craft 3402463 · The Shattered Web Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 371 384.48₸ · invest 610 533.11₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

MAC-10 | Stalker (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.008445 instead of 0.006756
Craft 3402464 · The Glove Collection + The Shattered Web Collection · profit 371 384.48₸ · invest 610 533.11₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

MAC-10 | Stalker (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.008445 instead of 0.006756

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Breakout Collection + The Glove Collection

How to build i Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 37 outcomes

More

How to build