The Breakout Collection + The Glove Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Prices by float: ночной проверки нет, числа ниже — оценка с учётом float

Average profit at most · with float −44 900.20₴

Invest at least 162 463.08₴

Average return 117 562.89₴

ROI −27.6%

Chance of profit 16%

With float: invest at least 162 463.08 ₴, profit at most −44 900.20 ₴

float premium: at least 89 034 ₴

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

A more profitable set was dropped: +58 556.89 ₴ по средним

The gain is understated: 4 outcomes have no price, that is 10.6% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat / Market.CSGO: without them the profit is −64 261.41 ₴

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 2 шт., годных ≈2

×2

M4A1-S | Cyrex

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0067

20 904.16 ₴

at 10 452.08

if this one runs out, you can take

P90 | Asiimov (Factory New) — 13 606.29 ₴ +3 154.21 ₴ per item · on the market 33 · buy 0.0000–0.0124

Steam

×3

SSG 08 | Dragonfire

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0067

51 444.64 ₴

at 17 148.21

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New) — 25 004.41 ₴ +7 856.19 ₴ per item · on the market 45 · buy 0.0000–0.0094

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 72 348.80 ₴ +45 214.08 (+62.5%)

The gain is understated: 4 outcomes have no price, that is 11.5% of the chance

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 1 шт., годных ≈2

×1

M4A1-S | Cyrex

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0067

10 452.08 ₴

at 10 452.08

if this one runs out, you can take

P90 | Asiimov (Factory New) — 13 606.29 ₴ +3 154.21 ₴ per item · on the market 33 · buy 0.0000–0.0124

Steam

×4

SSG 08 | Dragonfire

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0067

68 592.86 ₴

at 17 148.21

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New) — 25 004.41 ₴ +7 856.19 ₴ per item · on the market 45 · buy 0.0000–0.0094

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 79 044.94 ₴ +58 556.89 (+74.1%)

The gain is understated: 4 outcomes have no price, that is 9.6% of the chance

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 3 шт., годных ≈2

×3

M4A1-S | Cyrex

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0067

31 356.24 ₴

at 10 452.08

if this one runs out, you can take

P90 | Asiimov (Factory New) — 13 606.29 ₴ +3 154.21 ₴ per item · on the market 33 · buy 0.0000–0.0124

Steam

×2

SSG 08 | Dragonfire

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0067

34 296.43 ₴

at 17 148.21

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New) — 25 004.41 ₴ +7 856.19 ₴ per item · on the market 45 · buy 0.0000–0.0094

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 65 652.67 ₴ +31 871.27 (+48.5%)

The gain is understated: 4 outcomes have no price, that is 8.7% of the chance

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 4 шт., годных ≈2

×4

M4A1-S | Cyrex

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0067

41 808.32 ₴

at 10 452.08

if this one runs out, you can take

P90 | Asiimov (Factory New) — 13 606.29 ₴ +3 154.21 ₴ per item · on the market 33 · buy 0.0000–0.0124

Steam

×1

SSG 08 | Dragonfire

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0067

17 148.21 ₴

at 17 148.21

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New) — 25 004.41 ₴ +7 856.19 ₴ per item · on the market 45 · buy 0.0000–0.0094

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 58 956.53 ₴ +18 528.47 (+31.4%)

What you get 37 outcomes

Profitable outcome 26%
Losing outcome 63%
Above the Steam cap 11%

Order

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

85 872.83 ₴ 3.08%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.013378

64 138.02 ₴ 3.08%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

45 923.79 ₴ 3.08%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Butterfly Knife | Stained

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

45 611.29 ₴ 3.08%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

59 224.99 ₴ 3.08%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Butterfly Knife | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

31 812.48 ₴ 3.08%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

40 345.24 ₴ 3.08%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

200 516.69 ₴ 3.08%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Butterfly Knife | Night

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

58 825.16 ₴ 3.08%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Butterfly Knife | Scorched

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

38 620.06 ₴ 3.08%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Butterfly Knife | Safari Mesh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 3.08%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

42 709.24 ₴ 3.08%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Butterfly Knife

no wear

68 529.84 ₴ 3.08%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Spruce DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

34 036.08 ₴ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Badlands

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

30 706.43 ₴ 2.50%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Leather

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

38 693.66 ₴ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

52 410.14 ₴ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Eclipse

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

29 760.16 ₴ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Spearmint

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

247 622.71 ₴ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Boom!

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

34 978.66 ₴ 2.50%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Cool Mint

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

99 127.67 ₴ 2.50%

sell on Market.CSGO

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Lunar Weave

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

51 796.31 ₴ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Convoy

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

23 626.38 ₴ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

85 645.65 ₴ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

★ Driver Gloves | Diamondback

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 2.50%

Steam

at a loss

★ Specialist Gloves | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

20 855.58 ₴ 2.50%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

193 100.28 ₴ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 2.50%

Steam

★ Specialist Gloves | Foundation

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 2.50%

Steam

in profit

best

★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 331 256.03 ₴ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

404 011.22 ₴ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Arid

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

149 936.68 ₴ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

971 634.71 ₴ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Charred

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

32 993.87 ₴ 2.50%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Guerrilla

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

13 965.90 ₴ 2.50%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Bronzed

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

19 099.27 ₴ 2.50%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Snakebite

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

16 055.04 ₴ 2.50%

sell on Market.CSGO

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Breakout Collection + The Glove Collection

Variant 2 only The Glove Collection Variant 3 The Operation Hydra Collection instead of The Breakout Collection Variant 4 The Chroma Collection instead of The Breakout Collection Variant 5 The Operation Broken Fang Collection instead of The Breakout Collection Variant 6 The Danger Zone Collection instead of The Glove Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +44 262.79 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +45 069.72 ₴ historical median

6% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Breakout Collection and The Glove Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 15 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3402123 · The Glove Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit 49 137.68₴ · invest 69 878.72₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.008445 instead of 0.006756
Craft 3402124 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 49 137.68₴ · invest 69 878.72₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.008445 instead of 0.006756
Craft 3401633 · The Glove Collection + The Breakout Collection · profit 45 214.08₴ · invest 72 348.80₴
outcome without sales no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist
Craft 3401557 · The Glove Collection + The Arms Deal 3 Collection · profit 39 624.97₴ · invest 63 452.92₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

CZ75-Auto | Victoria (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.007796 instead of 0.006756
Craft 3401558 · The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 39 624.97₴ · invest 63 452.92₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

CZ75-Auto | Victoria (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.007796 instead of 0.006756
Craft 3402477 · The eSports 2013 Winter Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 39 363.55₴ · invest 63 714.34₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | X-Ray (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.005334 instead of 0.006756
Craft 3402478 · The Glove Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection · profit 39 363.55₴ · invest 63 714.34₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | X-Ray (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.005334 instead of 0.006756
Craft 3402407 · The Glove Collection + The Gamma Collection · profit 38 627.31₴ · invest 64 814.57₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.006963 instead of 0.006756
Craft 3402408 · The Gamma Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 38 627.31₴ · invest 64 814.57₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.006963 instead of 0.006756
Craft 3402193 · The Glove Collection + The Dreams & Nightmares Collection · profit 38 217.88₴ · invest 61 896.72₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.007949 instead of 0.006756
Craft 3402194 · The Dreams & Nightmares Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 38 217.88₴ · invest 61 896.72₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.007949 instead of 0.006756
Craft 3402451 · The Prisma 2 Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 37 295.02₴ · invest 61 896.72₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.008445 instead of 0.006756
Craft 3402452 · The Glove Collection + The Prisma 2 Collection · profit 37 295.02₴ · invest 61 896.72₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.008445 instead of 0.006756
Craft 3402463 · The Shattered Web Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 37 273.89₴ · invest 61 275.98₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

MAC-10 | Stalker (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.008445 instead of 0.006756
Craft 3402464 · The Glove Collection + The Shattered Web Collection · profit 37 273.89₴ · invest 61 275.98₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

MAC-10 | Stalker (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.008445 instead of 0.006756

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Breakout Collection + The Glove Collection

How to build i Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 37 outcomes

More

How to build