The Dead Hand Collection + The CS20 Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Prices by float: ночной проверки нет, числа ниже — оценка с учётом float

Average profit at most · with float −27 222.61₴

Invest at least 46 384.80₴

Average return 19 162.19₴

ROI −58.7%

Chance of profit 13%

With float: invest at least 46 384.80 ₴, profit at most −27 222.61 ₴

float premium: at least 24 863 ₴

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

A more profitable set was dropped: +10 933.55 ₴ по средним

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 13.2% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat: without them the profit is −13 123.35 ₴

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 4 шт., годных ≈0

×1

Glock-18 | Fully Tuned

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0075

9 217.04 ₴

at 9 217.04

if this one runs out, you can take

AWP | Queen's Gambit (Factory New) — 12 042.89 ₴ +2 825.85 ₴ per item · on the market 35 · buy 0.0000–0.0075

Steam

×4

FAMAS | Commemoration

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0075

11 194.93 ₴

at 2 798.73

if this one runs out, you can take

AWP | Wildfire (Factory New) — 7 055.55 ₴ +4 256.81 ₴ per item · on the market 42 · buy 0.0100–0.0203

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 20 411.96 ₴ −1 249.77 (−6.1%)

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 6.7% of the chance

1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 4 шт., годных ≈2

×4

Glock-18 | Fully Tuned

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0112

36 868.15 ₴

at 9 217.04

if this one runs out, you can take

AWP | Queen's Gambit (Factory New) — 12 042.89 ₴ +2 825.85 ₴ per item · on the market 35 · buy 0.0000–0.0112

Steam

×1

FAMAS | Commemoration

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0112

2 798.73 ₴

at 2 798.73

if this one runs out, you can take

AWP | Wildfire (Factory New) — 7 055.55 ₴ +4 256.81 ₴ per item · on the market 42 · buy 0.0100–0.0255

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 39 666.88 ₴ +10 933.55 (+27.6%)

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 8.9% of the chance

1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 3 шт., годных ≈1

×3

Glock-18 | Fully Tuned

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0096

27 651.11 ₴

at 9 217.04

if this one runs out, you can take

AWP | Queen's Gambit (Factory New) — 12 042.89 ₴ +2 825.85 ₴ per item · on the market 35 · buy 0.0000–0.0096

Steam

×2

FAMAS | Commemoration

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0096

5 597.46 ₴

at 2 798.73

if this one runs out, you can take

AWP | Wildfire (Factory New) — 7 055.55 ₴ +4 256.81 ₴ per item · on the market 42 · buy 0.0100–0.0233

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 33 248.57 ₴ +6 872.45 (+20.7%)

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 11.0% of the chance

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −3 607 ₴

1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 2 шт., годных ≈1

×2

Glock-18 | Fully Tuned

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0084

18 434.07 ₴

at 9 217.04

if this one runs out, you can take

AWP | Queen's Gambit (Factory New) — 12 042.89 ₴ +2 825.85 ₴ per item · on the market 35 · buy 0.0000–0.0084

Steam

×3

FAMAS | Commemoration

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0084

8 396.19 ₴

at 2 798.73

if this one runs out, you can take

AWP | Wildfire (Factory New) — 7 055.55 ₴ +4 256.81 ₴ per item · on the market 42 · buy 0.0100–0.0216

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 26 830.27 ₴ +2 811.34 (+10.5%)

What you get 35 outcomes

Profitable outcome 23%
Losing outcome 62%
About break-even 1%
Above the Steam cap 13%

Order

at a loss

★ Classic Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

12 531.50 ₴ 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Classic Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.013378

11 092.64 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Classic Knife | Blue Steel

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

9 031.97 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Classic Knife | Stained

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

7 475.62 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Classic Knife | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

17 873.12 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ Classic Knife | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

6 914.81 ₴ 6.15%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Classic Knife | Boreal Forest

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

8 055.90 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Classic Knife | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

24 800.55 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Classic Knife | Scorched

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

12 011.29 ₴ 6.15%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Classic Knife | Safari Mesh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

7 660.63 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Classic Knife | Night Stripe

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Classic Knife | Urban Masked

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Classic Knife

no wear

9 955.84 ₴ 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Brocade Crane

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

74 942.44 ₴ 0.91%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Brocade Flowers

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

59 545.31 ₴ 0.91%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Dragon Fists

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

20 086.16 ₴ 0.91%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

★ Driver Gloves | Garden

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 0.91%

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Hand Sweaters

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

27 848.83 ₴ 0.91%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

about break-even

★ Driver Gloves | Plum Quill

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

23 293.68 ₴ 0.91%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Seigaiha

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

25 319.51 ₴ 0.91%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Wave Chaser

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

76 331.40 ₴ 0.91%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Lime Polycam

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

74 968.34 ₴ 0.91%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Cloud Chaser

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

67 153.46 ₴ 0.91%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Blackbook

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

59 020.53 ₴ 0.91%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Chocolate Chesterfield

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

35 906.79 ₴ 0.91%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

best

★ Specialist Gloves | Pillow Punchers

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

202 187.35 ₴ 0.91%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Sunburst

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

56 706.51 ₴ 0.91%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Big Swell

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

63 109.71 ₴ 0.91%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Violet Beadwork

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

73 120.03 ₴ 0.91%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Frosty

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

48 362.31 ₴ 0.91%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Blaze

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

40 891.82 ₴ 0.91%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Creme Pinstripe

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

34 076.06 ₴ 0.91%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Red Racer

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

55 243.12 ₴ 0.91%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Ultra Violent

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

188 811.64 ₴ 0.91%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Occult

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

85 406.66 ₴ 0.91%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Dead Hand Collection + The CS20 Collection

Variant 2 The Glove Collection instead of The CS20 Collection Variant 3 The Operation Hydra Collection instead of The CS20 Collection Variant 4 The Clutch Collection instead of The CS20 Collection Variant 5 only The Dead Hand Collection Variant 6 The Wildfire Collection instead of The CS20 Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −2 027.97 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week −1 388.86 ₴ historical median

1% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The CS20 Collection and The Dead Hand Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 1 craft almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3401691 · The CS20 Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit −1 249.77₴ · invest 20 411.96₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Dead Hand Collection + The CS20 Collection

How to build i Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 35 outcomes

More

How to build