The CS20 Collection + The Recoil Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Average profit +13 766.63₽

Invest 31 623.55₽

Average return 45 390.18₽

ROI +43.5%

Chance of profit 48%

With float: invest at least 73 773.23 ₽, profit at most −28 383.05 ₽

float premium: at least 40 293 ₽

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −7 807 ₽

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 6.4% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat / Market.CSGO: without them the profit is −9 517.00 ₽

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 1 шт., годных ≈0

×1

FAMAS | Commemoration

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0087

4 958.39 ₽

at 4 958.39

if this one runs out, you can take

AWP | Wildfire (Factory New) — 12 500.00 ₽ +7 541.61 ₽ per item · on the market 42 · buy 0.0100–0.0220

Steam

×4

AWP | Chromatic Aberration

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0087

26 665.16 ₽

at 6 666.29

if this one runs out, you can take

USP-S | Printstream (Factory New) — 9 269.49 ₽ +2 603.20 ₽ per item · on the market 59 · buy 0.0000–0.0106

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 31 623.55 ₽ +13 766.63 (+43.5%)

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 8.7% of the chance

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −10 755 ₽

1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 2 шт., годных ≈0

×2

FAMAS | Commemoration

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0081

9 916.78 ₽

at 4 958.39

if this one runs out, you can take

AWP | Wildfire (Factory New) — 12 500.00 ₽ +7 541.61 ₽ per item · on the market 42 · buy 0.0100–0.0212

Steam

×3

AWP | Chromatic Aberration

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0081

19 998.87 ₽

at 6 666.29

if this one runs out, you can take

USP-S | Printstream (Factory New) — 9 269.49 ₽ +2 603.20 ₽ per item · on the market 59 · buy 0.0000–0.0099

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 29 915.65 ₽ +7 972.70 (+26.6%)

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 10.9% of the chance

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −13 703 ₽

1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 3 шт., годных ≈0

×3

FAMAS | Commemoration

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0076

14 875.17 ₽

at 4 958.39

if this one runs out, you can take

AWP | Wildfire (Factory New) — 12 500.00 ₽ +7 541.61 ₽ per item · on the market 42 · buy 0.0100–0.0205

Steam

×2

AWP | Chromatic Aberration

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0076

13 332.58 ₽

at 6 666.29

if this one runs out, you can take

USP-S | Printstream (Factory New) — 9 269.49 ₽ +2 603.20 ₽ per item · on the market 59 · buy 0.0000–0.0092

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 28 207.75 ₽ +2 178.78 (+7.7%)

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 13.1% of the chance

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 4 шт., годных ≈0

×4

FAMAS | Commemoration

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0071

19 833.56 ₽

at 4 958.39

if this one runs out, you can take

AWP | Wildfire (Factory New) — 12 500.00 ₽ +7 541.61 ₽ per item · on the market 42 · buy 0.0100–0.0198

Steam

×1

AWP | Chromatic Aberration

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0071

6 666.29 ₽

at 6 666.29

if this one runs out, you can take

USP-S | Printstream (Factory New) — 9 269.49 ₽ +2 603.20 ₽ per item · on the market 59 · buy 0.0000–0.0087

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 26 499.85 ₽ −3 615.14 (−13.6%)

What you get 37 outcomes

Profitable outcome 48%
Losing outcome 45%
Above the Steam cap 6%

Order

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Desert Shamagh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

17 330.90 ₽ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Hand Wraps | CAUTION!

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

49 466.38 ₽ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Giraffe

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

12 321.17 ₽ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Constrictor

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

18 534.26 ₽ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Blood Pressure

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

63 109.60 ₽ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Finish Line

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

17 933.49 ₽ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | 3rd Commando Company

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

17 509.85 ₽ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Smoke Out

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

58 339.08 ₽ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Snow Leopard

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

141 180.84 ₽ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Queen Jaguar

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

33 603.61 ₽ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Rezan the Red

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

51 797.31 ₽ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Black Tie

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

88 036.68 ₽ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Field Agent

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

68 599.44 ₽ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Marble Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

124 499.99 ₽ 3.33%

sell on Market.CSGO pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Lt. Commander

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

40 860.27 ₽ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Tiger Strike

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

78 483.44 ₽ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

101 967.62 ₽ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Big Game

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

52 322.29 ₽ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

best

★ Sport Gloves | Nocts

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

216 576.46 ₽ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

★ Sport Gloves | Slingshot

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 3.33%

Steam

at a loss

★ Broken Fang Gloves | Needle Point

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

14 998.14 ₽ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Broken Fang Gloves | Jade

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

48 243.85 ₽ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Broken Fang Gloves | Yellow-banded

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

30 600.00 ₽ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Broken Fang Gloves | Unhinged

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

28 760.05 ₽ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Classic Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

22 201.51 ₽ 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Classic Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.013378

19 652.34 ₽ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Classic Knife | Blue Steel

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

16 001.54 ₽ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Classic Knife | Stained

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

13 244.23 ₽ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Classic Knife | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

31 665.02 ₽ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ Classic Knife | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

12 250.66 ₽ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Classic Knife | Boreal Forest

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

14 272.29 ₽ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Classic Knife | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

43 938.05 ₽ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Classic Knife | Scorched

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

21 279.88 ₽ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Classic Knife | Safari Mesh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

13 572.01 ₽ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Classic Knife | Night Stripe

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Classic Knife | Urban Masked

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Classic Knife

no wear

17 638.33 ₽ 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The CS20 Collection + The Recoil Collection

Variant 2 The Glove Collection instead of The CS20 Collection Variant 3 The Clutch Collection instead of The CS20 Collection Variant 4 The Operation Hydra Collection instead of The CS20 Collection Variant 5 The Clutch Collection instead of The Recoil Collection Variant 6 The Dead Hand Collection instead of The Recoil Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +10 946.67 ₽ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +13 202.68 ₽ historical median

7% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The CS20 Collection and The Recoil Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 9 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3402751 · The Revolver Case Collection + The Recoil Collection · profit 14 742.98₽ · invest 35 094.33₽
profit on prices without salesat least −7 632 ₽ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

R8 Revolver | Fade (Factory New) instead of FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New); AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Factory New): float at most 0.008225 instead of 0.008758
Craft 3402752 · The Recoil Collection + The Revolver Case Collection · profit 14 742.98₽ · invest 35 094.33₽
profit on prices without salesat least −7 632 ₽ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

R8 Revolver | Fade (Factory New) instead of FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New); AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Factory New): float at most 0.008225 instead of 0.008758
Craft 3402681 · The Recoil Collection + The Phoenix Collection · profit 14 192.53₽ · invest 35 644.78₽
profit on prices without salesat least −8 182 ₽ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

AUG | Chameleon (Factory New) instead of FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New)
Craft 3402682 · The Phoenix Collection + The Recoil Collection · profit 14 192.53₽ · invest 35 644.78₽
profit on prices without salesat least −8 182 ₽ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

AUG | Chameleon (Factory New) instead of FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New)
Craft 3402767 · The Vanguard Collection + The Recoil Collection · profit 14 156.24₽ · invest 35 681.07₽
profit on prices without salesat least −8 219 ₽ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

P2000 | Fire Elemental (Factory New) instead of FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New); AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Factory New): float at most 0.009154 instead of 0.008758
Craft 3402768 · The Recoil Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 14 156.24₽ · invest 35 681.07₽
profit on prices without salesat least −8 219 ₽ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

P2000 | Fire Elemental (Factory New) instead of FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New); AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Factory New): float at most 0.009154 instead of 0.008758
Craft 3402771 · The Winter Offensive Collection + The Recoil Collection · profit 13 913.41₽ · invest 35 923.90₽
profit on prices without salesat least −8 462 ₽ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

Sawed-Off | The Kraken (Factory New) instead of FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New); AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Factory New): float at most 0.008225 instead of 0.008758
Craft 3402772 · The Recoil Collection + The Winter Offensive Collection · profit 13 913.41₽ · invest 35 923.90₽
profit on prices without salesat least −8 462 ₽ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

Sawed-Off | The Kraken (Factory New) instead of FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New); AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Factory New): float at most 0.008225 instead of 0.008758
Craft 3401727 · The Recoil Collection + The CS20 Collection · profit 13 766.63₽ · invest 31 623.55₽
profit on prices without salesat least −7 807 ₽ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The CS20 Collection + The Recoil Collection

How to build i Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 37 outcomes

More

How to build