The Shadow Collection + The CS20 Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Average profit −15 552.71₴

Invest 23 214.83₴

Average return 7 662.12₴

ROI −67.0%

Chance of profit 0%

With float: invest at least 52 438.98 ₴, profit at most −44 776.87 ₴

float premium: at least 28 026 ₴

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

The gain is understated: 5 outcomes have no price, that is 16.9% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat: without them the profit is −16 694.10 ₴

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 1 шт., годных ≈1

×1

USP-S | Kill Confirmed

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0075

12 019.90 ₴

at 12 019.90

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Factory New) — 13 857.51 ₴ +1 837.61 ₴ per item · on the market 24 · buy 0.0000–0.0075

Steam

×4

FAMAS | Commemoration

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0075

11 194.93 ₴

at 2 798.73

if this one runs out, you can take

AWP | Wildfire (Factory New) — 7 055.55 ₴ +4 256.81 ₴ per item · on the market 42 · buy 0.0100–0.0203

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 23 214.83 ₴ −15 552.71 (−67.0%)

The gain is understated: 5 outcomes have no price, that is 21.5% of the chance

1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 4 шт., годных ≈2

×4

USP-S | Kill Confirmed

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0112

48 079.60 ₴

at 12 019.90

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Factory New) — 13 857.51 ₴ +1 837.61 ₴ per item · on the market 24 · buy 0.0000–0.0112

Steam

×1

FAMAS | Commemoration

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0112

2 798.73 ₴

at 2 798.73

if this one runs out, you can take

AWP | Wildfire (Factory New) — 7 055.55 ₴ +4 256.81 ₴ per item · on the market 42 · buy 0.0100–0.0255

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 50 878.33 ₴ −46 278.17 (−91.0%)

The gain is understated: 5 outcomes have no price, that is 20.0% of the chance

1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 3 шт., годных ≈2

×3

USP-S | Kill Confirmed

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0096

36 059.70 ₴

at 12 019.90

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Factory New) — 13 857.51 ₴ +1 837.61 ₴ per item · on the market 24 · buy 0.0000–0.0096

Steam

×2

FAMAS | Commemoration

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0096

5 597.46 ₴

at 2 798.73

if this one runs out, you can take

AWP | Wildfire (Factory New) — 7 055.55 ₴ +4 256.81 ₴ per item · on the market 42 · buy 0.0100–0.0233

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 41 657.16 ₴ −36 036.35 (−86.5%)

The gain is understated: 5 outcomes have no price, that is 18.5% of the chance

1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 2 шт., годных ≈1

×2

USP-S | Kill Confirmed

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0084

24 039.80 ₴

at 12 019.90

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Factory New) — 13 857.51 ₴ +1 837.61 ₴ per item · on the market 24 · buy 0.0000–0.0084

Steam

×3

FAMAS | Commemoration

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0084

8 396.19 ₴

at 2 798.73

if this one runs out, you can take

AWP | Wildfire (Factory New) — 7 055.55 ₴ +4 256.81 ₴ per item · on the market 42 · buy 0.0100–0.0216

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 32 435.99 ₴ −25 794.53 (−79.5%)

What you get 26 outcomes

Profitable outcome 0%
Losing outcome 83%
Above the Steam cap 17%

Order

at a loss

★ Classic Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

12 531.50 ₴ 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Classic Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.013378

11 092.64 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Classic Knife | Blue Steel

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

9 031.97 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Classic Knife | Stained

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

7 475.62 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Classic Knife | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

17 873.12 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Classic Knife | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

6 914.81 ₴ 6.15%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Classic Knife | Boreal Forest

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

8 055.90 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

best

★ Classic Knife | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

24 800.55 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Classic Knife | Scorched

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

12 011.29 ₴ 6.15%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Classic Knife | Safari Mesh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

7 660.63 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Classic Knife | Night Stripe

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Classic Knife | Urban Masked

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Classic Knife

no wear

9 955.84 ₴ 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Shadow Daggers | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

7 660.35 ₴ 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Shadow Daggers | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.013378

5 605.20 ₴ 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Shadow Daggers | Blue Steel

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

6 570.16 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Shadow Daggers | Stained

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

5 063.80 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Shadow Daggers | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

8 743.18 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Shadow Daggers | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Shadow Daggers | Boreal Forest

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

4 234.60 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Shadow Daggers | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Shadow Daggers | Night

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ Shadow Daggers | Scorched

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

2 442.74 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Shadow Daggers | Safari Mesh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

4 107.32 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Shadow Daggers | Urban Masked

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

5 586.87 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Shadow Daggers

no wear

3 499.36 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Shadow Collection + The CS20 Collection

Variant 2 The Glove Collection instead of The CS20 Collection Variant 3 The Clutch Collection instead of The Shadow Collection Variant 4 The Glove Collection instead of The Shadow Collection Variant 5 The Recoil Collection instead of The Shadow Collection Variant 6 The Dead Hand Collection instead of The Shadow Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −16 380.16 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week −15 686.09 ₴ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The CS20 Collection and The Shadow Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 1 craft almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3401736 · The CS20 Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit −15 552.71₴ · invest 23 214.83₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Shadow Collection + The CS20 Collection

How to build i Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 26 outcomes

More

How to build