The CS20 Collection + The Wildfire Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Average profit −158.63$

Invest 335.66$

Average return 177.03$

ROI −47.3%

Chance of profit 12%

With float: invest at least 775.54 $, profit at most −598.51 $

float premium: at least 417 $

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

The gain is understated: 5 outcomes have no price, that is 16.9% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat: without them the profit is −183.75 $

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 4 шт., годных ≈0

×4

FAMAS | Commemoration

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0070

246.39 $

at 61.60

if this one runs out, you can take

AWP | Wildfire (Factory New) — 155.29 $ +93.69 $ per item · on the market 42 · buy 0.0100–0.0197

Steam

×1

M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0070

89.27 $

at 89.27

if this one runs out, you can take

AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New) — 512.80 $ +423.53 $ per item · on the market 19 · buy 0.0000–0.0110

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 335.66 $ −158.63 (−47.3%)

What you get 26 outcomes

Profitable outcome 6%
Losing outcome 71%
About break-even 6%
Above the Steam cap 17%

Order

at a loss

★ Classic Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

275.81 $ 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Classic Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.013378

244.14 $ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Classic Knife | Blue Steel

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

198.79 $ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Classic Knife | Stained

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

164.53 $ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

about break-even

★ Classic Knife | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

393.37 $ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Classic Knife | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

152.19 $ 6.15%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Classic Knife | Boreal Forest

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

177.30 $ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

best

★ Classic Knife | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

545.84 $ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Classic Knife | Scorched

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

264.36 $ 6.15%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Classic Knife | Safari Mesh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

168.61 $ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Classic Knife | Night Stripe

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Classic Knife | Urban Masked

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Classic Knife

no wear

219.12 $ 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

207.26 $ 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.013378

262.39 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

285.34 $ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Stained

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

157.74 $ 1.54%

rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

277.98 $ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

155.29 $ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Night

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

132.07 $ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ Bowie Knife | Scorched

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

83.09 $ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

155.35 $ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife

no wear

88.57 $ 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The CS20 Collection + The Wildfire Collection

Variant 2 The Glove Collection instead of The CS20 Collection Variant 3 The Clutch Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 4 The Clutch Collection instead of The CS20 Collection Variant 5 The Glove Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 6 The Dead Hand Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −177.77 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week −161.68 $ historical median

2% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The CS20 Collection and The Wildfire Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 15 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3401723 · The Prisma 2 Collection + The CS20 Collection · profit −157.83$ · invest 361.41$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New): float at most 0.007507 instead of 0.007065
Craft 3401724 · The CS20 Collection + The Prisma 2 Collection · profit −157.83$ · invest 361.41$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New): float at most 0.007507 instead of 0.007065
Craft 3401737 · The Shattered Web Collection + The CS20 Collection · profit −158.06$ · invest 354.58$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

MAC-10 | Stalker (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New): float at most 0.007507 instead of 0.007065
Craft 3401738 · The CS20 Collection + The Shattered Web Collection · profit −158.06$ · invest 354.58$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

MAC-10 | Stalker (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New): float at most 0.007507 instead of 0.007065
Craft 3401749 · The Wildfire Collection + The CS20 Collection · profit −158.63$ · invest 335.66$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist
Craft 3401683 · The Chroma Collection + The CS20 Collection · profit −161.98$ · invest 398.17$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AWP | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New): float at most 0.004461 instead of 0.007065
Craft 3401684 · The CS20 Collection + The Chroma Collection · profit −161.98$ · invest 398.17$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AWP | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New): float at most 0.004461 instead of 0.007065
Craft 3401745 · The Spectrum Collection + The CS20 Collection · profit −165.66$ · invest 391.74$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

USP-S | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New): float at most 0.007166 instead of 0.007065
Craft 3401746 · The CS20 Collection + The Spectrum Collection · profit −165.66$ · invest 391.74$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

USP-S | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New): float at most 0.007166 instead of 0.007065
Craft 3401703 · The Gamma 2 Collection + The CS20 Collection · profit −166.03$ · invest 416.39$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

FAMAS | Roll Cage (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New): float at most 0.007507 instead of 0.007065
Craft 3401704 · The CS20 Collection + The Gamma 2 Collection · profit −166.03$ · invest 416.39$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

FAMAS | Roll Cage (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New): float at most 0.007507 instead of 0.007065
Craft 3401743 · The Spectrum 2 Collection + The CS20 Collection · profit −171.50$ · invest 397.57$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

P250 | See Ya Later (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New): float at most 0.007166 instead of 0.007065
Craft 3401744 · The CS20 Collection + The Spectrum 2 Collection · profit −171.50$ · invest 397.57$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

P250 | See Ya Later (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New): float at most 0.007166 instead of 0.007065
Craft 3401453 · The CS20 Collection + The Arms Deal 2 Collection · profit −172.51$ · invest 418.86$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New): float at most 0.007490 instead of 0.007065
Craft 3401454 · The Arms Deal 2 Collection + The CS20 Collection · profit −172.51$ · invest 418.86$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New): float at most 0.007490 instead of 0.007065

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The CS20 Collection + The Wildfire Collection

How to build i Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 26 outcomes

More

How to build