The Falchion Collection + The Clutch Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Prices by float: ночной проверки нет, числа ниже — оценка с учётом float

Average profit at most · with float −199 862.10₸

Invest at least 510 744.14₸

Average return 310 882.04₸

ROI −39.1%

Chance of profit 17%

With float: invest at least 510 744.14 ₸, profit at most −199 862.10 ₸

float premium: at least 283 860 ₸

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −2 720 ₸

The gain is understated: 2 outcomes have no price, that is 3.1% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat: without them the profit is −122 725.97 ₸

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

3% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 1 шт., годных ≈1

×1

AWP | Hyper Beast

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0094

70 485.27 ₸

at 70 485.27

if this one runs out, you can take

AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Factory New) — 99 793.18 ₸ +29 307.91 ₸ per item · on the market 30 · buy 0.0000–0.0094

Steam

×4

MP7 | Bloodsport

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0094

151 583.91 ₸

at 37 895.98

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Factory New) — 47 154.20 ₸ +9 258.22 ₸ per item · on the market 51 · buy 0.0000–0.0130

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 222 069.18 ₸ +88 812.86 (+40.0%)

The gain is understated: 2 outcomes have no price, that is 12.3% of the chance

5% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 4 шт., годных ≈3

×4

AWP | Hyper Beast

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0121

281 941.10 ₸

at 70 485.27

if this one runs out, you can take

AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Factory New) — 99 793.18 ₸ +29 307.91 ₸ per item · on the market 30 · buy 0.0000–0.0121

Steam

×1

MP7 | Bloodsport

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0121

37 895.98 ₸

at 37 895.98

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Factory New) — 47 154.20 ₸ +9 258.22 ₸ per item · on the market 51 · buy 0.0000–0.0168

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 319 837.07 ₸ −189 308.24 (−59.2%)

The gain is understated: 2 outcomes have no price, that is 9.2% of the chance

5% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 3 шт., годных ≈3

×3

AWP | Hyper Beast

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0111

211 455.82 ₸

at 70 485.27

if this one runs out, you can take

AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Factory New) — 99 793.18 ₸ +29 307.91 ₸ per item · on the market 30 · buy 0.0000–0.0111

Steam

×2

MP7 | Bloodsport

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0111

75 791.95 ₸

at 37 895.98

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Factory New) — 47 154.20 ₸ +9 258.22 ₸ per item · on the market 51 · buy 0.0000–0.0153

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 287 247.78 ₸ −96 601.21 (−33.6%)

The gain is understated: 2 outcomes have no price, that is 6.2% of the chance

4% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 2 шт., годных ≈2

×2

AWP | Hyper Beast

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0102

140 970.55 ₸

at 70 485.27

if this one runs out, you can take

AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Factory New) — 99 793.18 ₸ +29 307.91 ₸ per item · on the market 30 · buy 0.0000–0.0102

Steam

×3

MP7 | Bloodsport

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0102

113 687.93 ₸

at 37 895.98

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Factory New) — 47 154.20 ₸ +9 258.22 ₸ per item · on the market 51 · buy 0.0000–0.0141

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 254 658.48 ₸ −3 894.17 (−1.5%)

What you get 37 outcomes

Profitable outcome 37%
Losing outcome 60%
Above the Steam cap 3%

Order

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Duct Tape

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

120 353.24 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

470 914.77 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Overprint

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

190 509.23 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Arboreal

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

77 277.85 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Turtle

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

168 708.87 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | POW!

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

338 625.99 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Polygon

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

274 416.00 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Transport

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

126 638.14 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Imperial Plaid

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

510 136.65 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | King Snake

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

862 919.01 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Overtake

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

135 383.40 ₸ 3.33%

rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Racing Green

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

66 289.54 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

717 922.86 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Specialist Gloves | Buckshot

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

85 596.14 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

429 614.75 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Mogul

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

288 276.90 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Omega

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

562 143.39 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

best

★ Sport Gloves | Vice

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

2 445 105.40 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

894 087.54 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Sport Gloves | Bronze Morph

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

224 937.67 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Hydra Gloves | Emerald

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

91 660.31 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Hydra Gloves | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

227 777.19 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Hydra Gloves | Mangrove

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

46 469.43 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Hydra Gloves | Rattler

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

73 225.31 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

103 320.45 ₸ 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.013378

132 575.32 ₸ 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Blue Steel

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

136 463.48 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Stained

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

70 823.50 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

163 746.94 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

63 285.69 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ Falchion Knife | Boreal Forest

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

44 980.32 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Night

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

135 810.77 ₸ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Scorched

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

65 623.78 ₸ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Safari Mesh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

55 799.24 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Falchion Knife | Urban Masked

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife

no wear

54 634.13 ₸ 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The Clutch Collection

Variant 2 The Glove Collection instead of The Clutch Collection Variant 3 The Glove Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 4 The Operation Hydra Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 5 only The Clutch Collection Variant 6 The Dead Hand Collection instead of The Falchion Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +72 541.94 ₸ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +86 644.67 ₸ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Clutch Collection and The Falchion Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 3 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3401975 · The Gallery Collection + The Clutch Collection · profit 97 037.74₸ · invest 210 944.33₸
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Gold Toof (Factory New) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New); MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New): float at most 0.008981 instead of 0.009444
Craft 3401976 · The Clutch Collection + The Gallery Collection · profit 97 037.74₸ · invest 210 944.33₸
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Gold Toof (Factory New) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New); MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New): float at most 0.008981 instead of 0.009444
Craft 3401970 · The Clutch Collection + The Falchion Collection · profit 88 812.84₸ · invest 222 069.18₸
profit on prices without salesat least −2 720 ₸ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Falchion Collection + The Clutch Collection

How to build i Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 37 outcomes

More

How to build