The Wildfire Collection + The Clutch Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Average profit +11 615.80₴

Invest 19 269.61₴

Average return 30 885.41₴

ROI +60.3%

Chance of profit 43%

With float: invest at least 44 741.16 ₴, profit at most −13 855.75 ₴

float premium: at least 25 200 ₴

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 4.6% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat: without them the profit is −9 310.42 ₴

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

2% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 1 шт., годных ≈1

×1

M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0087

4 055.93 ₴

at 4 055.93

if this one runs out, you can take

AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New) — 23 299.40 ₴ +19 243.46 ₴ per item · on the market 19 · buy 0.0000–0.0136

Steam

×4

MP7 | Bloodsport

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0087

15 213.67 ₴

at 3 803.42

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Factory New) — 4 732.62 ₴ +929.20 ₴ per item · on the market 51 · buy 0.0000–0.0121

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 19 269.61 ₴ +11 615.80 (+60.3%)

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 9.2% of the chance

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −2 981 ₴

2% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 2 шт., годных ≈1

×2

M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0087

8 111.87 ₴

at 4 055.93

if this one runs out, you can take

AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New) — 23 299.40 ₴ +19 243.46 ₴ per item · on the market 19 · buy 0.0000–0.0136

Steam

×3

MP7 | Bloodsport

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0087

11 410.26 ₴

at 3 803.42

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Factory New) — 4 732.62 ₴ +929.20 ₴ per item · on the market 51 · buy 0.0000–0.0120

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 19 522.12 ₴ +5 013.41 (+25.7%)

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 13.8% of the chance

2% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 3 шт., годных ≈1

×3

M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0087

12 167.80 ₴

at 4 055.93

if this one runs out, you can take

AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New) — 23 299.40 ₴ +19 243.46 ₴ per item · on the market 19 · buy 0.0000–0.0135

Steam

×2

MP7 | Bloodsport

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0087

7 606.84 ₴

at 3 803.42

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Factory New) — 4 732.62 ₴ +929.20 ₴ per item · on the market 51 · buy 0.0000–0.0120

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 19 774.64 ₴ −1 588.98 (−8.0%)

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 18.5% of the chance

2% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 4 шт., годных ≈1

×4

M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0086

16 223.73 ₴

at 4 055.93

if this one runs out, you can take

AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New) — 23 299.40 ₴ +19 243.46 ₴ per item · on the market 19 · buy 0.0000–0.0135

Steam

×1

MP7 | Bloodsport

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0086

3 803.42 ₴

at 3 803.42

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Factory New) — 4 732.62 ₴ +929.20 ₴ per item · on the market 51 · buy 0.0000–0.0120

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 20 027.15 ₴ −8 191.37 (−40.9%)

What you get 37 outcomes

Profitable outcome 37%
Losing outcome 52%
About break-even 7%
Above the Steam cap 5%

Order

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Duct Tape

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

12 079.22 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

47 263.22 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Overprint

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

19 120.40 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Arboreal

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

7 755.97 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Turtle

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

16 932.42 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | POW!

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

33 986.10 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Polygon

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

27 541.68 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Transport

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

12 710.00 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Imperial Plaid

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

51 199.71 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | King Snake

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

86 606.61 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Overtake

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

13 587.72 ₴ 3.33%

rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Racing Green

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

6 653.13 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

72 054.12 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Specialist Gloves | Buckshot

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

8 590.83 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

43 118.16 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Mogul

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

28 932.83 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Omega

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

56 419.36 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

best

★ Sport Gloves | Vice

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

245 402.28 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

89 734.83 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

about break-even

★ Sport Gloves | Bronze Morph

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

22 575.80 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Hydra Gloves | Emerald

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

9 199.46 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

about break-even

★ Hydra Gloves | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

22 860.79 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Hydra Gloves | Mangrove

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

4 663.89 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Hydra Gloves | Rattler

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

7 349.24 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

9 416.75 ₴ 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.013378

11 921.76 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

12 964.58 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Stained

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

7 166.99 ₴ 1.54%

rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

12 630.12 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

7 055.61 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Night

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

6 000.70 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ Bowie Knife | Scorched

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

3 775.43 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

7 058.19 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife

no wear

4 024.25 ₴ 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Wildfire Collection + The Clutch Collection

Variant 2 The Glove Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 3 The Operation Hydra Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 4 The Glove Collection instead of The Clutch Collection Variant 5 only The Clutch Collection Variant 6 The Dead Hand Collection instead of The Clutch Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +9 936.84 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +11 398.56 ₴ historical median

2% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Clutch Collection and The Wildfire Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 17 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3401999 · The Prisma Collection + The Clutch Collection · profit 12 687.06₴ · invest 19 404.80₴
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New): float at most 0.008911 instead of 0.008756
Craft 3402000 · The Clutch Collection + The Prisma Collection · profit 12 687.06₴ · invest 19 404.80₴
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New): float at most 0.008911 instead of 0.008756
Craft 3402029 · The eSports 2013 Winter Collection + The Clutch Collection · profit 12 686.42₴ · invest 21 348.52₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | X-Ray (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New): float at most 0.007121 instead of 0.008756
Craft 3402030 · The Clutch Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection · profit 12 686.42₴ · invest 21 348.52₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | X-Ray (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New): float at most 0.007121 instead of 0.008756
Craft 3401979 · The Gamma Collection + The Clutch Collection · profit 12 318.30₴ · invest 21 898.64₴
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New): float at most 0.008439 instead of 0.008756
Craft 3401980 · The Clutch Collection + The Gamma Collection · profit 12 318.30₴ · invest 21 898.64₴
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New): float at most 0.008439 instead of 0.008756
Craft 3401971 · The Fever Collection + The Clutch Collection · profit 12 225.79₴ · invest 19 203.88₴
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

FAMAS | Bad Trip (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New): float at most 0.009444 instead of 0.008756
Craft 3401972 · The Clutch Collection + The Fever Collection · profit 12 225.79₴ · invest 19 203.88₴
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

FAMAS | Bad Trip (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New): float at most 0.009444 instead of 0.008756
Craft 3401967 · The Dreams & Nightmares Collection + The Clutch Collection · profit 12 113.58₴ · invest 20 439.71₴
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New): float at most 0.009125 instead of 0.008756
Craft 3401968 · The Clutch Collection + The Dreams & Nightmares Collection · profit 12 113.58₴ · invest 20 439.71₴
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New): float at most 0.009125 instead of 0.008756
Craft 3401997 · The Prisma 2 Collection + The Clutch Collection · profit 11 652.15₴ · invest 20 439.71₴
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New): float at most 0.009444 instead of 0.008756
Craft 3401998 · The Clutch Collection + The Prisma 2 Collection · profit 11 652.15₴ · invest 20 439.71₴
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New): float at most 0.009444 instead of 0.008756
Craft 3402013 · The Shattered Web Collection + The Clutch Collection · profit 11 641.59₴ · invest 20 129.34₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

MAC-10 | Stalker (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New): float at most 0.009444 instead of 0.008756
Craft 3402014 · The Clutch Collection + The Shattered Web Collection · profit 11 641.59₴ · invest 20 129.34₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

MAC-10 | Stalker (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New): float at most 0.009444 instead of 0.008756
Craft 3402026 · The Clutch Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit 11 615.80₴ · invest 19 269.61₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist
Craft 3401895 · The Clutch Collection + The Chroma Collection · profit 11 463.71₴ · invest 22 109.61₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AWP | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New): float at most 0.005081 instead of 0.008756
Craft 3401896 · The Chroma Collection + The Clutch Collection · profit 11 463.71₴ · invest 22 109.61₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AWP | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New): float at most 0.005081 instead of 0.008756

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Wildfire Collection + The Clutch Collection

How to build i Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 37 outcomes

More

How to build