The Dead Hand Collection + The Glove Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Prices by float: ночной проверки нет, числа ниже — оценка с учётом float

Average profit at most · with float −378 497.60₸

Invest at least 1 564 336.72₸

Average return 1 185 839.12₸

ROI −24.2%

Chance of profit 16%

With float: invest at least 1 564 336.72 ₸, profit at most −378 497.60 ₸

float premium: at least 855 753 ₸

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

A more profitable set was dropped: +602 987.71 ₸ по средним

The gain is understated: 4 outcomes have no price, that is 9.3% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat / Market.CSGO: without them the profit is −633 626.86 ₸

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 2 шт., годных ≈1

×2

Glock-18 | Fully Tuned

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0084

183 670.88 ₸

at 91 835.44

if this one runs out, you can take

AWP | Queen's Gambit (Factory New) — 119 991.28 ₸ +28 155.84 ₸ per item · on the market 35 · buy 0.0000–0.0084

Steam

×3

SSG 08 | Dragonfire

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0084

512 577.04 ₸

at 170 859.01

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New) — 249 135.45 ₸ +78 276.44 ₸ per item · on the market 45 · buy 0.0000–0.0118

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 696 247.91 ₸ +489 591.21 (+70.3%)

The gain is understated: 4 outcomes have no price, that is 6.1% of the chance

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 4 шт., годных ≈2

×4

Glock-18 | Fully Tuned

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0112

367 341.75 ₸

at 91 835.44

if this one runs out, you can take

AWP | Queen's Gambit (Factory New) — 119 991.28 ₸ +28 155.84 ₸ per item · on the market 35 · buy 0.0000–0.0112

Steam

×1

SSG 08 | Dragonfire

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0112

170 859.01 ₸

at 170 859.01

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New) — 249 135.45 ₸ +78 276.44 ₸ per item · on the market 45 · buy 0.0000–0.0157

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 538 200.77 ₸ +262 798.21 (+48.8%)

The gain is understated: 4 outcomes have no price, that is 7.7% of the chance

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 3 шт., годных ≈1

×3

Glock-18 | Fully Tuned

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0096

275 506.31 ₸

at 91 835.44

if this one runs out, you can take

AWP | Queen's Gambit (Factory New) — 119 991.28 ₸ +28 155.84 ₸ per item · on the market 35 · buy 0.0000–0.0096

Steam

×2

SSG 08 | Dragonfire

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0096

341 718.02 ₸

at 170 859.01

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New) — 249 135.45 ₸ +78 276.44 ₸ per item · on the market 45 · buy 0.0000–0.0135

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 617 224.34 ₸ +376 194.71 (+61.0%)

The gain is understated: 4 outcomes have no price, that is 10.9% of the chance

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 4 шт., годных ≈1

×1

Glock-18 | Fully Tuned

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0075

91 835.44 ₸

at 91 835.44

if this one runs out, you can take

AWP | Queen's Gambit (Factory New) — 119 991.28 ₸ +28 155.84 ₸ per item · on the market 35 · buy 0.0000–0.0075

Steam

×4

SSG 08 | Dragonfire

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0075

683 436.05 ₸

at 170 859.01

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New) — 249 135.45 ₸ +78 276.44 ₸ per item · on the market 45 · buy 0.0000–0.0105

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 775 271.49 ₸ +602 987.71 (+77.8%)

What you get 46 outcomes

Profitable outcome 31%
Losing outcome 58%
About break-even 2%
Above the Steam cap 9%

Order

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Spruce DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

339 123.99 ₸ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Badlands

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

305 948.51 ₸ 2.50%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Leather

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

385 530.54 ₸ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

522 196.93 ₸ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Eclipse

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

296 520.17 ₸ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Spearmint

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

2 467 228.96 ₸ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Boom!

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

348 515.49 ₸ 2.50%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Cool Mint

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

987 674.55 ₸ 2.50%

sell on Market.CSGO

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Lunar Weave

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

516 080.91 ₸ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Convoy

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

235 405.31 ₸ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

853 344.34 ₸ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

★ Driver Gloves | Diamondback

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 2.50%

Steam

at a loss

★ Specialist Gloves | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

207 797.91 ₸ 2.50%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 923 985.90 ₸ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 2.50%

Steam

★ Specialist Gloves | Foundation

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 2.50%

Steam

in profit

best

★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

13 264 185.01 ₸ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

4 025 431.16 ₸ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Arid

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 493 918.43 ₸ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

9 681 039.75 ₸ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Charred

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

328 739.75 ₸ 2.50%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Guerrilla

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

139 151.49 ₸ 2.50%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Bronzed

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

190 298.67 ₸ 2.50%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Snakebite

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

159 966.99 ₸ 2.50%

sell on Market.CSGO

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Brocade Crane

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

746 701.16 ₸ 1.82%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Brocade Flowers

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

593 289.36 ₸ 1.82%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Dragon Fists

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

200 131.71 ₸ 1.82%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

★ Driver Gloves | Garden

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.82%

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Hand Sweaters

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

277 476.32 ₸ 1.82%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Plum Quill

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

232 090.34 ₸ 1.82%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Seigaiha

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

252 275.00 ₸ 1.82%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Wave Chaser

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

760 540.29 ₸ 1.82%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Lime Polycam

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

746 959.24 ₸ 1.82%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Specialist Gloves | Cloud Chaser

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

669 094.37 ₸ 1.82%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Specialist Gloves | Blackbook

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

588 060.63 ₸ 1.82%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Specialist Gloves | Chocolate Chesterfield

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

357 763.14 ₸ 1.82%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Pillow Punchers

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

2 014 526.37 ₸ 1.82%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Specialist Gloves | Sunburst

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

565 004.51 ₸ 1.82%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Specialist Gloves | Big Swell

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

628 803.83 ₸ 1.82%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

about break-even

★ Sport Gloves | Violet Beadwork

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

728 543.30 ₸ 1.82%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Sport Gloves | Frosty

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

481 865.68 ₸ 1.82%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Sport Gloves | Blaze

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

407 432.30 ₸ 1.82%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Sport Gloves | Creme Pinstripe

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

339 522.39 ₸ 1.82%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Sport Gloves | Red Racer

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

550 423.80 ₸ 1.82%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Ultra Violent

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 881 255.32 ₸ 1.82%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Occult

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

850 963.11 ₸ 1.82%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Dead Hand Collection + The Glove Collection

Variant 2 only The Glove Collection Variant 3 The Operation Hydra Collection instead of The Dead Hand Collection Variant 4 The Chroma Collection instead of The Dead Hand Collection Variant 5 The Operation Broken Fang Collection instead of The Dead Hand Collection Variant 6 The CS20 Collection instead of The Glove Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +485 197.01 ₸ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +488 519.29 ₸ historical median

4% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Dead Hand Collection and The Glove Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 15 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3402123 · The Glove Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit 489 591.23₸ · invest 696 247.91₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist
Craft 3401633 · The Glove Collection + The Breakout Collection · profit 450 497.82₸ · invest 720 859.00₸
outcome without sales no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New) instead of Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.006756 instead of 0.008445
Craft 3401634 · The Breakout Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 450 497.82₸ · invest 720 859.00₸
outcome without sales no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New) instead of Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.006756 instead of 0.008445
Craft 3401557 · The Glove Collection + The Arms Deal 3 Collection · profit 394 809.76₸ · invest 632 223.46₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

CZ75-Auto | Victoria (Factory New) instead of Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.007796 instead of 0.008445
Craft 3401558 · The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 394 809.76₸ · invest 632 223.46₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

CZ75-Auto | Victoria (Factory New) instead of Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.007796 instead of 0.008445
Craft 3402477 · The eSports 2013 Winter Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 392 205.09₸ · invest 634 828.13₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | X-Ray (Factory New) instead of Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.005334 instead of 0.008445
Craft 3402478 · The Glove Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection · profit 392 205.09₸ · invest 634 828.13₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | X-Ray (Factory New) instead of Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.005334 instead of 0.008445
Craft 3402407 · The Glove Collection + The Gamma Collection · profit 384 869.41₸ · invest 645 790.51₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) instead of Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.006963 instead of 0.008445
Craft 3402408 · The Gamma Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 384 869.41₸ · invest 645 790.51₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) instead of Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.006963 instead of 0.008445
Craft 3402193 · The Glove Collection + The Dreams & Nightmares Collection · profit 380 790.01₸ · invest 616 717.96₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New) instead of Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.007949 instead of 0.008445
Craft 3402194 · The Dreams & Nightmares Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 380 790.01₸ · invest 616 717.96₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New) instead of Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.007949 instead of 0.008445
Craft 3402451 · The Prisma 2 Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 371 594.94₸ · invest 616 717.96₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Factory New) instead of Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New)
Craft 3402452 · The Glove Collection + The Prisma 2 Collection · profit 371 594.94₸ · invest 616 717.96₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Factory New) instead of Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New)
Craft 3402463 · The Shattered Web Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 371 384.48₸ · invest 610 533.11₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

MAC-10 | Stalker (Factory New) instead of Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New)
Craft 3402464 · The Glove Collection + The Shattered Web Collection · profit 371 384.48₸ · invest 610 533.11₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

MAC-10 | Stalker (Factory New) instead of Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New)

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Dead Hand Collection + The Glove Collection

How to build i Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 46 outcomes

More

How to build