The Dead Hand Collection + The Glove Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Average profit +1 081.49$

Invest 1 537.98$

Average return 2 619.47$

ROI +70.3%

Chance of profit 33%

With float: invest at least 3 455.55 $, profit at most −836.08 $

float premium: at least 1 890 $

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

A more profitable set was dropped: +1 331.97 $ по средним

The gain is understated: 4 outcomes have no price, that is 9.3% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat / Market.CSGO: without them the profit is −1 399.65 $

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 2 шт., годных ≈1

×2

Glock-18 | Fully Tuned

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0084

405.72 $

at 202.86

if this one runs out, you can take

AWP | Queen's Gambit (Factory New) — 265.06 $ +62.20 $ per item · on the market 35 · buy 0.0000–0.0084

Steam

×3

SSG 08 | Dragonfire

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0084

1 132.26 $

at 377.42

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New) — 550.33 $ +172.91 $ per item · on the market 45 · buy 0.0000–0.0118

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 1 537.98 $ +1 081.49 (+70.3%)

The gain is understated: 4 outcomes have no price, that is 6.1% of the chance

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 4 шт., годных ≈2

×4

Glock-18 | Fully Tuned

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0112

811.44 $

at 202.86

if this one runs out, you can take

AWP | Queen's Gambit (Factory New) — 265.06 $ +62.20 $ per item · on the market 35 · buy 0.0000–0.0112

Steam

×1

SSG 08 | Dragonfire

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0112

377.42 $

at 377.42

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New) — 550.33 $ +172.91 $ per item · on the market 45 · buy 0.0000–0.0157

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 1 188.86 $ +580.51 (+48.8%)

The gain is understated: 4 outcomes have no price, that is 7.7% of the chance

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 3 шт., годных ≈1

×3

Glock-18 | Fully Tuned

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0096

608.58 $

at 202.86

if this one runs out, you can take

AWP | Queen's Gambit (Factory New) — 265.06 $ +62.20 $ per item · on the market 35 · buy 0.0000–0.0096

Steam

×2

SSG 08 | Dragonfire

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0096

754.84 $

at 377.42

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New) — 550.33 $ +172.91 $ per item · on the market 45 · buy 0.0000–0.0135

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 1 363.42 $ +831.00 (+61.0%)

The gain is understated: 4 outcomes have no price, that is 10.9% of the chance

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 4 шт., годных ≈1

×1

Glock-18 | Fully Tuned

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0075

202.86 $

at 202.86

if this one runs out, you can take

AWP | Queen's Gambit (Factory New) — 265.06 $ +62.20 $ per item · on the market 35 · buy 0.0000–0.0075

Steam

×4

SSG 08 | Dragonfire

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0075

1 509.68 $

at 377.42

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New) — 550.33 $ +172.91 $ per item · on the market 45 · buy 0.0000–0.0105

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 1 712.54 $ +1 331.97 (+77.8%)

What you get 46 outcomes

Profitable outcome 31%
Losing outcome 58%
About break-even 2%
Above the Steam cap 9%

Order

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Spruce DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

749.11 $ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Badlands

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

675.83 $ 2.50%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Leather

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

851.62 $ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 153.51 $ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Eclipse

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

655.00 $ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Spearmint

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

5 450.00 $ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Boom!

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

769.86 $ 2.50%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Cool Mint

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

2 181.73 $ 2.50%

sell on Market.CSGO

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Lunar Weave

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 140.00 $ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Convoy

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

520.00 $ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 885.00 $ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

★ Driver Gloves | Diamondback

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 2.50%

Steam

at a loss

★ Specialist Gloves | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

459.02 $ 2.50%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

4 250.00 $ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 2.50%

Steam

★ Specialist Gloves | Foundation

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 2.50%

Steam

in profit

best

★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

29 300.00 $ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

8 892.00 $ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Arid

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

3 300.00 $ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

21 384.99 $ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Charred

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

726.17 $ 2.50%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Guerrilla

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

307.38 $ 2.50%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Bronzed

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

420.36 $ 2.50%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Snakebite

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

353.36 $ 2.50%

sell on Market.CSGO

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Brocade Crane

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 649.43 $ 1.82%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Brocade Flowers

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 310.55 $ 1.82%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Dragon Fists

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

442.08 $ 1.82%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

★ Driver Gloves | Garden

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.82%

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Hand Sweaters

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

612.93 $ 1.82%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Plum Quill

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

512.68 $ 1.82%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Seigaiha

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

557.26 $ 1.82%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Wave Chaser

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 680.00 $ 1.82%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Lime Polycam

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 650.00 $ 1.82%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Specialist Gloves | Cloud Chaser

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 478.00 $ 1.82%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Specialist Gloves | Blackbook

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 299.00 $ 1.82%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Specialist Gloves | Chocolate Chesterfield

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

790.28 $ 1.82%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Pillow Punchers

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

4 450.00 $ 1.82%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Specialist Gloves | Sunburst

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 248.07 $ 1.82%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Specialist Gloves | Big Swell

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 389.00 $ 1.82%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

about break-even

★ Sport Gloves | Violet Beadwork

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 609.32 $ 1.82%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Sport Gloves | Frosty

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 064.42 $ 1.82%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Sport Gloves | Blaze

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

900.00 $ 1.82%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Sport Gloves | Creme Pinstripe

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

749.99 $ 1.82%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Sport Gloves | Red Racer

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 215.86 $ 1.82%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Ultra Violent

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

4 155.61 $ 1.82%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Occult

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 879.74 $ 1.82%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Dead Hand Collection + The Glove Collection

Variant 2 only The Glove Collection Variant 3 The Operation Hydra Collection instead of The Dead Hand Collection Variant 4 The Chroma Collection instead of The Dead Hand Collection Variant 5 The Operation Broken Fang Collection instead of The Dead Hand Collection Variant 6 The CS20 Collection instead of The Glove Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +1 071.78 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +1 079.12 $ historical median

4% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Dead Hand Collection and The Glove Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 15 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3402123 · The Glove Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit 1 081.49$ · invest 1 537.98$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist
Craft 3401633 · The Glove Collection + The Breakout Collection · profit 995.13$ · invest 1 592.35$
outcome without sales no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New) instead of Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.006756 instead of 0.008445
Craft 3401634 · The Breakout Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 995.13$ · invest 1 592.35$
outcome without sales no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New) instead of Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.006756 instead of 0.008445
Craft 3401557 · The Glove Collection + The Arms Deal 3 Collection · profit 872.12$ · invest 1 396.55$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

CZ75-Auto | Victoria (Factory New) instead of Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.007796 instead of 0.008445
Craft 3401558 · The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 872.12$ · invest 1 396.55$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

CZ75-Auto | Victoria (Factory New) instead of Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.007796 instead of 0.008445
Craft 3402477 · The eSports 2013 Winter Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 866.36$ · invest 1 402.31$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | X-Ray (Factory New) instead of Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.005334 instead of 0.008445
Craft 3402478 · The Glove Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection · profit 866.36$ · invest 1 402.31$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | X-Ray (Factory New) instead of Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.005334 instead of 0.008445
Craft 3402407 · The Glove Collection + The Gamma Collection · profit 850.16$ · invest 1 426.52$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) instead of Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.006963 instead of 0.008445
Craft 3402408 · The Gamma Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 850.16$ · invest 1 426.52$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) instead of Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.006963 instead of 0.008445
Craft 3402193 · The Glove Collection + The Dreams & Nightmares Collection · profit 841.15$ · invest 1 362.30$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New) instead of Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.007949 instead of 0.008445
Craft 3402194 · The Dreams & Nightmares Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 841.15$ · invest 1 362.30$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New) instead of Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.007949 instead of 0.008445
Craft 3402451 · The Prisma 2 Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 820.84$ · invest 1 362.30$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Factory New) instead of Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New)
Craft 3402452 · The Glove Collection + The Prisma 2 Collection · profit 820.84$ · invest 1 362.30$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Factory New) instead of Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New)
Craft 3402463 · The Shattered Web Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 820.37$ · invest 1 348.64$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

MAC-10 | Stalker (Factory New) instead of Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New)
Craft 3402464 · The Glove Collection + The Shattered Web Collection · profit 820.37$ · invest 1 348.64$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

MAC-10 | Stalker (Factory New) instead of Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New)

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Dead Hand Collection + The Glove Collection

How to build i Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 46 outcomes

More

How to build