The Operation Broken Fang Collection + The Dead Hand Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Prices by float: ночной проверки нет, числа ниже — оценка с учётом float

Average profit at most · with float −51 990.91₴

Invest at least 106 825.69₴

Average return 54 834.79₴

ROI −48.7%

Chance of profit 8%

With float: invest at least 106 825.69 ₴, profit at most −51 990.91 ₴

float premium: at least 57 732 ₴

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

The gain is understated: 2 outcomes have no price, that is 4.5% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat / Market.CSGO: without them the profit is −37 265.49 ₴

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

4% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 1 шт., годных ≈0

×1

Glock-18 | Neo-Noir

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0135

9 089.13 ₴

at 9 089.13

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A1-S | Printstream (Factory New) — 23 930.46 ₴ +14 841.33 ₴ per item · on the market 25 · buy 0.0000–0.0108

Steam

×4

Glock-18 | Fully Tuned

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0135

36 868.15 ₴

at 9 217.04

if this one runs out, you can take

AWP | Queen's Gambit (Factory New) — 12 042.89 ₴ +2 825.85 ₴ per item · on the market 35 · buy 0.0000–0.0135

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 45 957.28 ₴ +8 877.51 (+19.3%)

The gain is understated: 2 outcomes have no price, that is 4.4% of the chance

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −7 204 ₴

4% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 2 шт., годных ≈0

×2

Glock-18 | Neo-Noir

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0135

18 178.27 ₴

at 9 089.13

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A1-S | Printstream (Factory New) — 23 930.46 ₴ +14 841.33 ₴ per item · on the market 25 · buy 0.0000–0.0108

Steam

×3

Glock-18 | Fully Tuned

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0135

27 651.11 ₴

at 9 217.04

if this one runs out, you can take

AWP | Queen's Gambit (Factory New) — 12 042.89 ₴ +2 825.85 ₴ per item · on the market 35 · buy 0.0000–0.0135

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 45 829.38 ₴ +2 760.35 (+6.0%)

What you get 46 outcomes

Profitable outcome 48%
Losing outcome 40%
About break-even 7%
Above the Steam cap 4%

Order

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Brocade Crane

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

74 942.44 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Brocade Flowers

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

59 545.31 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Dragon Fists

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

20 086.16 ₴ 3.64%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

★ Driver Gloves | Garden

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 3.64%

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Hand Sweaters

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

27 848.83 ₴ 3.64%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Plum Quill

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

23 293.68 ₴ 3.64%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Seigaiha

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

25 319.51 ₴ 3.64%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Wave Chaser

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

76 331.40 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Lime Polycam

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

74 968.34 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Cloud Chaser

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

67 153.46 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Blackbook

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

59 020.53 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Specialist Gloves | Chocolate Chesterfield

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

35 906.79 ₴ 3.64%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

best

★ Specialist Gloves | Pillow Punchers

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

202 187.35 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Sunburst

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

56 706.51 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Big Swell

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

63 109.71 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Violet Beadwork

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

73 120.03 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

about break-even

★ Sport Gloves | Frosty

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

48 362.31 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Sport Gloves | Blaze

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

40 891.82 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Sport Gloves | Creme Pinstripe

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

34 076.06 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

about break-even

★ Sport Gloves | Red Racer

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

55 243.12 ₴ 3.64%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Ultra Violent

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

188 811.64 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Occult

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

85 406.66 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Desert Shamagh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

9 782.32 ₴ 0.83%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | CAUTION!

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

27 920.98 ₴ 0.83%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ Hand Wraps | Giraffe

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

6 954.61 ₴ 0.83%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Constrictor

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

10 461.54 ₴ 0.83%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Blood Pressure

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

35 621.81 ₴ 0.83%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Finish Line

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

10 122.44 ₴ 0.83%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | 3rd Commando Company

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

9 883.32 ₴ 0.83%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Smoke Out

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

32 929.12 ₴ 0.83%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Snow Leopard

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

79 688.62 ₴ 0.83%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Queen Jaguar

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

18 967.34 ₴ 0.83%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Rezan the Red

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

29 236.66 ₴ 0.83%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Black Tie

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

49 691.74 ₴ 0.83%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Specialist Gloves | Field Agent

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

38 720.52 ₴ 0.83%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Marble Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

70 273.22 ₴ 0.83%

sell on Market.CSGO pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Specialist Gloves | Lt. Commander

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

23 063.32 ₴ 0.83%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Specialist Gloves | Tiger Strike

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

44 299.48 ₴ 0.83%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

57 554.97 ₴ 0.83%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Sport Gloves | Big Game

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

29 532.98 ₴ 0.83%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Nocts

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

122 245.20 ₴ 0.83%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

★ Sport Gloves | Slingshot

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 0.83%

Steam

at a loss

★ Broken Fang Gloves | Needle Point

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

8 465.60 ₴ 0.83%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Broken Fang Gloves | Jade

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

27 230.93 ₴ 0.83%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Broken Fang Gloves | Yellow-banded

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

17 271.97 ₴ 0.83%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Broken Fang Gloves | Unhinged

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

16 233.43 ₴ 0.83%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Operation Broken Fang Collection + The Dead Hand Collection

Variant 2 The Glove Collection instead of The Dead Hand Collection Variant 3 The Glove Collection instead of The Operation Broken Fang Collection Variant 4 The Operation Hydra Collection instead of The Operation Broken Fang Collection Variant 5 The Clutch Collection instead of The Operation Broken Fang Collection Variant 6 The CS20 Collection instead of The Operation Broken Fang Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +8 294.96 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +8 671.51 ₴ historical median

5% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Dead Hand Collection and The Operation Broken Fang Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 9 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3402137 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Operation Broken Fang Collection · profit 8 877.51₴ · invest 45 957.28₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist
Craft 3402117 · The Gamma 2 Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit 8 700.58₴ · invest 44 592.00₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

FAMAS | Roll Cage (Factory New) instead of Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Factory New)
Craft 3402118 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Gamma 2 Collection · profit 8 700.58₴ · invest 44 592.00₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

FAMAS | Roll Cage (Factory New) instead of Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Factory New)
Craft 3401465 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Arms Deal 2 Collection · profit 8 406.23₴ · invest 44 704.36₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Factory New) instead of Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.013458 instead of 0.013513
Craft 3401466 · The Arms Deal 2 Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit 8 406.23₴ · invest 44 704.36₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Factory New) instead of Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.013458 instead of 0.013513
Craft 3401833 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Chroma 3 Collection · profit 8 142.28₴ · invest 44 506.68₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

PP-Bizon | Judgement of Anubis (Factory New) instead of Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.011261 instead of 0.013513
Craft 3401834 · The Chroma 3 Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit 8 142.28₴ · invest 44 506.68₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

PP-Bizon | Judgement of Anubis (Factory New) instead of Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.011261 instead of 0.013513
Craft 3401765 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Chroma 2 Collection · profit 8 097.33₴ · invest 44 551.63₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Factory New) instead of Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.010858 instead of 0.013513
Craft 3401766 · The Chroma 2 Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit 8 097.33₴ · invest 44 551.63₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Factory New) instead of Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.010858 instead of 0.013513

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Operation Broken Fang Collection + The Dead Hand Collection

How to build i Ways to build 2 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 46 outcomes

More

How to build