The Dead Hand Collection + The Operation Broken Fang Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Prices by float: ночной проверки нет, числа ниже — оценка с учётом float

Average profit at most · with float −518 019.87₸

Invest at least 1 064 375.10₸

Average return 546 355.29₸

ROI −48.7%

Chance of profit 8%

With float: invest at least 1 064 375.10 ₸, profit at most −518 019.87 ₸

float premium: at least 575 224 ₸

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

The gain is understated: 2 outcomes have no price, that is 4.5% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat / Market.CSGO: without them the profit is −371 300.77 ₸

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

4% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 4 шт., годных ≈2

×4

Glock-18 | Fully Tuned

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0135

367 341.75 ₸

at 91 835.44

if this one runs out, you can take

AWP | Queen's Gambit (Factory New) — 119 991.28 ₸ +28 155.84 ₸ per item · on the market 35 · buy 0.0000–0.0135

Steam

×1

Glock-18 | Neo-Noir

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0135

90 561.06 ₸

at 90 561.06

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A1-S | Printstream (Factory New) — 238 435.03 ₸ +147 873.97 ₸ per item · on the market 25 · buy 0.0000–0.0108

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 457 902.81 ₸ +88 452.48 (+19.3%)

The gain is understated: 2 outcomes have no price, that is 4.4% of the chance

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −71 782 ₸

4% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 3 шт., годных ≈2

×3

Glock-18 | Fully Tuned

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0135

275 506.31 ₸

at 91 835.44

if this one runs out, you can take

AWP | Queen's Gambit (Factory New) — 119 991.28 ₸ +28 155.84 ₸ per item · on the market 35 · buy 0.0000–0.0135

Steam

×2

Glock-18 | Neo-Noir

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0135

181 122.11 ₸

at 90 561.06

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A1-S | Printstream (Factory New) — 238 435.03 ₸ +147 873.97 ₸ per item · on the market 25 · buy 0.0000–0.0108

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 456 628.43 ₸ +27 503.19 (+6.0%)

What you get 46 outcomes

Profitable outcome 48%
Losing outcome 40%
About break-even 7%
Above the Steam cap 4%

Order

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Brocade Crane

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

746 701.16 ₸ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Brocade Flowers

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

593 289.36 ₸ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Dragon Fists

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

200 131.71 ₸ 3.64%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

★ Driver Gloves | Garden

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 3.64%

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Hand Sweaters

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

277 476.32 ₸ 3.64%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Plum Quill

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

232 090.34 ₸ 3.64%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Seigaiha

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

252 275.00 ₸ 3.64%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Wave Chaser

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

760 540.29 ₸ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Lime Polycam

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

746 959.24 ₸ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Cloud Chaser

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

669 094.37 ₸ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Blackbook

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

588 060.63 ₸ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Specialist Gloves | Chocolate Chesterfield

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

357 763.14 ₸ 3.64%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

best

★ Specialist Gloves | Pillow Punchers

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

2 014 526.37 ₸ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Sunburst

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

565 004.51 ₸ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Big Swell

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

628 803.83 ₸ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Violet Beadwork

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

728 543.30 ₸ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

about break-even

★ Sport Gloves | Frosty

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

481 865.68 ₸ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Sport Gloves | Blaze

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

407 432.30 ₸ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Sport Gloves | Creme Pinstripe

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

339 522.39 ₸ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

about break-even

★ Sport Gloves | Red Racer

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

550 423.80 ₸ 3.64%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Ultra Violent

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 881 255.32 ₸ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Occult

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

850 963.11 ₸ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Desert Shamagh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

97 467.69 ₸ 0.83%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | CAUTION!

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

278 195.23 ₸ 0.83%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ Hand Wraps | Giraffe

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

69 293.34 ₸ 0.83%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Constrictor

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

104 235.29 ₸ 0.83%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Blood Pressure

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

354 923.68 ₸ 0.83%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Finish Line

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

100 856.61 ₸ 0.83%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | 3rd Commando Company

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

98 474.09 ₸ 0.83%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Smoke Out

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

328 094.63 ₸ 0.83%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Snow Leopard

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

793 990.50 ₸ 0.83%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Queen Jaguar

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

188 984.19 ₸ 0.83%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Rezan the Red

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

291 304.20 ₸ 0.83%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Black Tie

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

495 111.71 ₸ 0.83%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Specialist Gloves | Field Agent

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

385 798.13 ₸ 0.83%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Marble Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

700 178.64 ₸ 0.83%

sell on Market.CSGO pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Specialist Gloves | Lt. Commander

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

229 795.11 ₸ 0.83%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Specialist Gloves | Tiger Strike

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

441 385.00 ₸ 0.83%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

573 458.28 ₸ 0.83%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Sport Gloves | Big Game

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

294 256.65 ₸ 0.83%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Nocts

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 218 009.83 ₸ 0.83%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

★ Sport Gloves | Slingshot

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 0.83%

Steam

at a loss

★ Broken Fang Gloves | Needle Point

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

84 348.42 ₸ 0.83%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Broken Fang Gloves | Jade

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

271 319.81 ₸ 0.83%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Broken Fang Gloves | Yellow-banded

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

172 092.11 ₸ 0.83%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Broken Fang Gloves | Unhinged

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

161 744.37 ₸ 0.83%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Dead Hand Collection + The Operation Broken Fang Collection

Variant 2 The Glove Collection instead of The Dead Hand Collection Variant 3 The Glove Collection instead of The Operation Broken Fang Collection Variant 4 The Operation Hydra Collection instead of The Operation Broken Fang Collection Variant 5 The Clutch Collection instead of The Operation Broken Fang Collection Variant 6 The CS20 Collection instead of The Operation Broken Fang Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +82 648.14 ₸ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +86 399.97 ₸ historical median

5% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Dead Hand Collection and The Operation Broken Fang Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 9 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3402135 · The Operation Broken Fang Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit 88 452.47₸ · invest 457 902.81₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist
Craft 3402117 · The Gamma 2 Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit 86 689.66₸ · invest 444 299.66₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

FAMAS | Roll Cage (Factory New) instead of Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Factory New)
Craft 3402118 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Gamma 2 Collection · profit 86 689.66₸ · invest 444 299.66₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

FAMAS | Roll Cage (Factory New) instead of Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Factory New)
Craft 3401465 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Arms Deal 2 Collection · profit 83 756.87₸ · invest 445 419.10₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Factory New) instead of Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.013458 instead of 0.013513
Craft 3401466 · The Arms Deal 2 Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit 83 756.87₸ · invest 445 419.10₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Factory New) instead of Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.013458 instead of 0.013513
Craft 3401833 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Chroma 3 Collection · profit 81 126.94₸ · invest 443 449.55₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

PP-Bizon | Judgement of Anubis (Factory New) instead of Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.011261 instead of 0.013513
Craft 3401834 · The Chroma 3 Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit 81 126.94₸ · invest 443 449.55₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

PP-Bizon | Judgement of Anubis (Factory New) instead of Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.011261 instead of 0.013513
Craft 3401765 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Chroma 2 Collection · profit 80 679.10₸ · invest 443 897.38₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Factory New) instead of Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.010858 instead of 0.013513
Craft 3401766 · The Chroma 2 Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit 80 679.10₸ · invest 443 897.38₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Factory New) instead of Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Factory New); Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New): float at most 0.010858 instead of 0.013513

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Dead Hand Collection + The Operation Broken Fang Collection

How to build i Ways to build 2 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 46 outcomes

More

How to build