The Glove Collection + The Falchion Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Prices by float: ночной проверки нет, числа ниже — оценка с учётом float

Average profit at most · with float −497 948.81₸

Invest at least 1 768 574.46₸

Average return 1 270 625.65₸

ROI −28.2%

Chance of profit 17%

With float: invest at least 1 768 574.46 ₸, profit at most −497 948.81 ₸

float premium: at least 998 168 ₸

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

The gain is understated: 5 outcomes have no price, that is 13.1% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat / Market.CSGO: without them the profit is −698 805.06 ₸

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 4 шт., годных ≈1

×4

SSG 08 | Dragonfire

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0075

683 436.05 ₸

at 170 859.01

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New) — 249 135.45 ₸ +78 276.44 ₸ per item · on the market 45 · buy 0.0000–0.0105

Steam

×1

AWP | Hyper Beast

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0075

70 485.27 ₸

at 70 485.27

if this one runs out, you can take

AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Factory New) — 99 793.18 ₸ +29 307.91 ₸ per item · on the market 30 · buy 0.0000–0.0075

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 753 921.32 ₸ +516 704.32 (+68.5%)

The gain is understated: 5 outcomes have no price, that is 14.8% of the chance

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 1 шт., годных ≈1

×1

SSG 08 | Dragonfire

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0112

170 859.01 ₸

at 170 859.01

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New) — 249 135.45 ₸ +78 276.44 ₸ per item · on the market 45 · buy 0.0000–0.0157

Steam

×4

AWP | Hyper Beast

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0112

281 941.10 ₸

at 70 485.27

if this one runs out, you can take

AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Factory New) — 99 793.18 ₸ +29 307.91 ₸ per item · on the market 30 · buy 0.0000–0.0112

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 452 800.11 ₸ −82 335.39 (−18.2%)

The gain is understated: 5 outcomes have no price, that is 14.2% of the chance

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 2 шт., годных ≈1

×2

SSG 08 | Dragonfire

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0096

341 718.02 ₸

at 170 859.01

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New) — 249 135.45 ₸ +78 276.44 ₸ per item · on the market 45 · buy 0.0000–0.0135

Steam

×3

AWP | Hyper Beast

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0096

211 455.82 ₸

at 70 485.27

if this one runs out, you can take

AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Factory New) — 99 793.18 ₸ +29 307.91 ₸ per item · on the market 30 · buy 0.0000–0.0096

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 553 173.85 ₸ +117 344.49 (+21.2%)

The gain is understated: 5 outcomes have no price, that is 13.7% of the chance

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 3 шт., годных ≈1

×3

SSG 08 | Dragonfire

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0084

512 577.04 ₸

at 170 859.01

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New) — 249 135.45 ₸ +78 276.44 ₸ per item · on the market 45 · buy 0.0000–0.0118

Steam

×2

AWP | Hyper Beast

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0084

140 970.55 ₸

at 70 485.27

if this one runs out, you can take

AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Factory New) — 99 793.18 ₸ +29 307.91 ₸ per item · on the market 30 · buy 0.0000–0.0084

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 653 547.59 ₸ +317 024.44 (+48.5%)

What you get 37 outcomes

Profitable outcome 27%
Losing outcome 60%
Above the Steam cap 13%

Order

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Spruce DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

339 123.99 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Badlands

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

305 948.51 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Leather

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

385 530.54 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

522 196.93 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Eclipse

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

296 520.17 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Spearmint

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

2 467 228.96 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Boom!

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

348 515.49 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Cool Mint

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

987 674.55 ₸ 3.33%

sell on Market.CSGO

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Lunar Weave

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

516 080.91 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Convoy

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

235 405.31 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

853 344.34 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

★ Driver Gloves | Diamondback

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 3.33%

Steam

at a loss

★ Specialist Gloves | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

207 797.91 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 923 985.90 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 3.33%

Steam

★ Specialist Gloves | Foundation

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 3.33%

Steam

in profit

best

★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

13 264 185.01 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

4 025 431.16 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Arid

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 493 918.43 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

9 681 039.75 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Charred

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

328 739.75 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Guerrilla

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

139 151.49 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Bronzed

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

190 298.67 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Snakebite

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

159 966.99 ₸ 3.33%

sell on Market.CSGO

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

103 320.45 ₸ 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.013378

132 575.32 ₸ 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Blue Steel

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

136 463.48 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Stained

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

70 823.50 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

163 746.94 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

63 285.69 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ Falchion Knife | Boreal Forest

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

44 980.32 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Night

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

135 810.77 ₸ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Scorched

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

65 623.78 ₸ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Safari Mesh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

55 799.24 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Falchion Knife | Urban Masked

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife

no wear

54 634.13 ₸ 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Glove Collection + The Falchion Collection

Variant 2 only The Glove Collection Variant 3 The Operation Hydra Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 4 The Chroma Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 5 The Operation Broken Fang Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 6 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Falchion Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +511 346.41 ₸ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +515 829.63 ₸ historical median

3% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The Glove Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 9 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3401915 · The Glove Collection + The Chroma Collection · profit 542 111.97₸ · invest 752 144.78₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AWP | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.004461 instead of 0.007507
Craft 3401916 · The Chroma Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 542 111.97₸ · invest 752 144.78₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AWP | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.004461 instead of 0.007507
Craft 3402443 · The Operation Broken Fang Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 542 038.44₸ · invest 773 997.11₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New)
Craft 3402444 · The Glove Collection + The Operation Broken Fang Collection · profit 542 038.44₸ · invest 773 997.11₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New)
Craft 3402234 · The Falchion Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 516 704.32₸ · invest 753 921.32₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist
Craft 3402479 · The eSports 2014 Summer Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 508 565.62₸ · invest 790 290.63₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Factory New) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.007021 instead of 0.007507
Craft 3402480 · The Glove Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 508 565.62₸ · invest 790 290.63₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Factory New) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.007021 instead of 0.007507
Craft 3402437 · The Horizon Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 499 405.03₸ · invest 781 028.98₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Desert Eagle | Code Red (Factory New) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New)
Craft 3402438 · The Glove Collection + The Horizon Collection · profit 499 405.03₸ · invest 781 028.98₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Desert Eagle | Code Red (Factory New) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New)

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Glove Collection + The Falchion Collection

How to build i Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 37 outcomes

More

How to build