The Huntsman Collection + The Gallery Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Prices by float: ночной проверки нет, числа ниже — оценка с учётом float

Average profit at most · with float −37 810.32₴

Invest at least 45 848.93₴

Average return 8 038.61₴

ROI −82.5%

Chance of profit 0%

With float: invest at least 45 848.93 ₴, profit at most −37 810.32 ₴

float premium: at least 25 225 ₴

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 18.5% of the chance

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 4 шт., годных ≈1

×4

M4A4 | Desert-Strike

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0095

13 945.17 ₴

at 3 486.29

if this one runs out, you can take

AK-47 | Vulcan (Factory New) — 36 354.98 ₴ +32 868.69 ₴ per item · on the market 20 · buy 0.0000–0.0122

Steam

×1

Glock-18 | Gold Toof

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0095

5 957.69 ₴

at 5 957.69

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A1-S | Vaporwave (Factory New) — 7 976.54 ₴ +2 018.85 ₴ per item · on the market 49 · buy 0.0000–0.0077

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 19 902.86 ₴ −11 864.24 (−59.6%)

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 9.2% of the chance

1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 2 шт., годных ≈1

×2

M4A4 | Desert-Strike

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0097

6 972.58 ₴

at 3 486.29

if this one runs out, you can take

AK-47 | Vulcan (Factory New) — 36 354.98 ₴ +32 868.69 ₴ per item · on the market 20 · buy 0.0000–0.0124

Steam

×3

Glock-18 | Gold Toof

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0097

17 873.07 ₴

at 5 957.69

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A1-S | Vaporwave (Factory New) — 7 976.54 ₴ +2 018.85 ₴ per item · on the market 49 · buy 0.0000–0.0079

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 24 845.66 ₴ −18 020.58 (−72.5%)

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 13.8% of the chance

1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 3 шт., годных ≈1

×3

M4A4 | Desert-Strike

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0096

10 458.87 ₴

at 3 486.29

if this one runs out, you can take

AK-47 | Vulcan (Factory New) — 36 354.98 ₴ +32 868.69 ₴ per item · on the market 20 · buy 0.0000–0.0123

Steam

×2

Glock-18 | Gold Toof

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0096

11 915.38 ₴

at 5 957.69

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A1-S | Vaporwave (Factory New) — 7 976.54 ₴ +2 018.85 ₴ per item · on the market 49 · buy 0.0000–0.0078

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 22 374.26 ₴ −14 942.41 (−66.8%)

What you get 26 outcomes

Profitable outcome 0%
Losing outcome 75%
About break-even 6%
Above the Steam cap 18%

Order

at a loss

★ Huntsman Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

12 718.10 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Huntsman Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.013378

13 728.03 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Huntsman Knife | Blue Steel

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

14 955.88 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Huntsman Knife | Stained

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

13 212.46 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Huntsman Knife | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

15 299.62 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Huntsman Knife | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

6 923.69 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Huntsman Knife | Boreal Forest

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

about break-even

best

★ Huntsman Knife | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

23 190.61 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Huntsman Knife | Night

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

19 365.70 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Huntsman Knife | Scorched

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Huntsman Knife | Safari Mesh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

4 191.83 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Huntsman Knife | Urban Masked

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Huntsman Knife

no wear

5 662.65 ₴ 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Kukri Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

8 162.40 ₴ 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Kukri Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.013378

6 708.34 ₴ 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Kukri Knife | Blue Steel

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

6 523.92 ₴ 1.54%

rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Kukri Knife | Stained

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

5 183.74 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Kukri Knife | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

11 497.30 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Kukri Knife | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

4 190.29 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Kukri Knife | Boreal Forest

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

4 466.51 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Kukri Knife | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

13 721.97 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Kukri Knife | Scorched

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

4 379.94 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ Kukri Knife | Safari Mesh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

3 502.81 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Kukri Knife | Night Stripe

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

6 076.59 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Kukri Knife | Urban Masked

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

5 115.85 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Kukri Knife

no wear

4 362.61 ₴ 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Huntsman Collection + The Gallery Collection

Variant 2 The Glove Collection instead of The Huntsman Collection Variant 3 The Glove Collection instead of The Gallery Collection Variant 4 The Clutch Collection instead of The Gallery Collection Variant 5 The Clutch Collection instead of The Huntsman Collection Variant 6 The Breakout Collection instead of The Huntsman Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −12 365.40 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week −12 004.79 ₴ historical median

6% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Gallery Collection and The Huntsman Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 3 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3402352 · The Gallery Collection + The Huntsman Collection · profit −11 864.24₴ · invest 19 902.86₴
no outcome price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist
Craft 3402237 · The Huntsman Collection + The Falchion Collection · profit −12 689.73₴ · invest 21 019.40₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New) instead of Glock-18 | Gold Toof (Factory New); M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Factory New): float at most 0.010063 instead of 0.009539
Craft 3402238 · The Falchion Collection + The Huntsman Collection · profit −12 689.73₴ · invest 21 019.40₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New) instead of Glock-18 | Gold Toof (Factory New); M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Factory New): float at most 0.010063 instead of 0.009539

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Huntsman Collection + The Gallery Collection

How to build i Ways to build 3 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 26 outcomes

More

How to build