The Wildfire Collection + The Gamma Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Prices by float: ночной проверки нет, числа ниже — оценка с учётом float

Average profit at most · with float −43 991.22₴

Invest at least 52 808.66₴

Average return 8 817.44₴

ROI −83.3%

Chance of profit 2%

With float: invest at least 52 808.66 ₴, profit at most −43 991.22 ₴

float premium: at least 29 299 ₴

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

A more profitable set was dropped: −12 686.27 ₴ по средним

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 18.5% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat: without them the profit is −15 777.84 ₴

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

2% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 4 шт., годных ≈1

×4

M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0083

16 223.73 ₴

at 4 055.93

if this one runs out, you can take

AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New) — 23 299.40 ₴ +19 243.46 ₴ per item · on the market 19 · buy 0.0000–0.0130

Steam

×1

Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0083

6 684.97 ₴

at 6 684.97

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Factory New) — 11 660.58 ₴ +4 975.61 ₴ per item · on the market 33 · buy 0.0000–0.0123

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 22 908.70 ₴ −14 091.26 (−61.5%)

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 13.8% of the chance

2% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 3 шт., годных ≈1

×3

M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0080

12 167.80 ₴

at 4 055.93

if this one runs out, you can take

AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New) — 23 299.40 ₴ +19 243.46 ₴ per item · on the market 19 · buy 0.0000–0.0125

Steam

×2

Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0080

13 369.93 ₴

at 6 684.97

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Factory New) — 11 660.58 ₴ +4 975.61 ₴ per item · on the market 33 · buy 0.0000–0.0119

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 25 537.73 ₴ −13 388.76 (−52.4%)

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 9.2% of the chance

2% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 2 шт., годных ≈1

×2

M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0077

8 111.87 ₴

at 4 055.93

if this one runs out, you can take

AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New) — 23 299.40 ₴ +19 243.46 ₴ per item · on the market 19 · buy 0.0000–0.0121

Steam

×3

Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0077

20 054.90 ₴

at 6 684.97

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Factory New) — 11 660.58 ₴ +4 975.61 ₴ per item · on the market 33 · buy 0.0000–0.0115

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 28 166.76 ₴ −12 686.27 (−45.0%)

What you get 43 outcomes

Profitable outcome 7%
Losing outcome 74%
About break-even 1%
Above the Steam cap 18%

Order

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

9 416.75 ₴ 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.013378

11 921.76 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

12 964.58 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Stained

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

7 166.99 ₴ 6.15%

rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

12 630.12 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

7 055.61 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Night

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

6 000.70 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Scorched

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

3 775.43 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

7 058.19 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife

no wear

4 024.25 ₴ 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

about break-even

★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

26 699.63 ₴ 0.67%

pricier variants exist lots by number 5 phases, price averaged

Steam

at a loss

★ Bayonet | Freehand

Factory New

float up to 0.006486

10 724.89 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bayonet | Lore

Factory New

float up to 0.008783

21 789.38 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bayonet | Black Laminate

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

15 569.66 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

about break-even

★ Bayonet | Autotronic

Factory New

float up to 0.011486

26 524.90 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bayonet | Bright Water

Factory New

float up to 0.006756

10 246.55 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

22 611.56 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number 5 phases, price averaged

Steam

at a loss

★ Flip Knife | Freehand

Factory New

float up to 0.006486

6 805.22 ₴ 0.67%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Flip Knife | Lore

Factory New

float up to 0.008783

12 873.88 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Flip Knife | Black Laminate

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

8 653.19 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Flip Knife | Autotronic

Factory New

float up to 0.011486

14 316.54 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Flip Knife | Bright Water

Factory New

float up to 0.006756

8 134.86 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

8 407.12 ₴ 0.67%

pricier variants exist lots by number 5 phases, price averaged

Steam

at a loss

★ Gut Knife | Freehand

Factory New

float up to 0.006486

3 919.01 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Gut Knife | Lore

Factory New

float up to 0.008783

6 147.58 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Gut Knife | Black Laminate

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

4 452.08 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Gut Knife | Autotronic

Factory New

float up to 0.011486

9 029.39 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ Gut Knife | Bright Water

Factory New

float up to 0.006756

3 451.09 ₴ 0.67%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

62 019.26 ₴ 0.67%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number 5 phases, price averaged

Steam

in profit

★ Karambit | Freehand

Factory New

float up to 0.006486

30 167.89 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Karambit | Lore

Factory New

float up to 0.008783

55 242.10 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Karambit | Black Laminate

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

42 343.03 ₴ 0.67%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Karambit | Autotronic

Factory New

float up to 0.011486

61 439.05 ₴ 0.67%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Karambit | Bright Water

Factory New

float up to 0.006756

32 487.12 ₴ 0.67%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

best

★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

62 865.69 ₴ 0.67%

pricier variants exist lots by number 5 phases, price averaged

Steam

at a loss

★ M9 Bayonet | Freehand

Factory New

float up to 0.006486

17 011.60 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ M9 Bayonet | Lore

Factory New

float up to 0.008783

43 506.17 ₴ 0.67%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ M9 Bayonet | Black Laminate

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

34 168.27 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ M9 Bayonet | Autotronic

Factory New

float up to 0.011486

48 843.01 ₴ 0.67%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ M9 Bayonet | Bright Water

Factory New

float up to 0.006756

20 717.74 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

float markup by input how many times more the lots with the needed float cost

M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New) × 4 12% of the wear range fits at least ×2.37 16 223.73 → 38 369.13 ₴

Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) × 1 12% of the wear range fits at least ×2.16 6 684.97 → 14 439.53 ₴

The markup is taken from a check of Steam 25–26.09.2026 listings. It shows how many times the needed number of cheapest listings with a fitting float cost more than the cheapest listing of this wear. It depends on the width of the float window and on the number of items.

Average float of the set

average normalized 0.013513414

outcomes come out up to 0.001081, 0.013378, 0.013513, 0.013513, 0.013513, 0.069999, 0.069999, 0.069999, 0.069999, 0.069999, 0.069999, 0.069999, 0.000000, 0.001081, 0.006486, 0.008783, 0.013513, 0.011486, 0.006756, 0.001081, 0.006486, 0.008783, 0.013513, 0.011486, 0.006756, 0.001081, 0.006486, 0.008783, 0.013513, 0.011486, 0.006756, 0.001081, 0.006486, 0.008783, 0.013513, 0.011486, 0.006756, 0.001081, 0.006486, 0.008783, 0.013513, 0.011486, 0.006756

How to read float

«No higher than» — is a guarantee. The limits are calculated together: take all items with the float at the upper bound and you get exactly the result shown. With a lower float the result will be better.

f′ — the same float, brought to 0–1 by the skin's own range. CSFloat counts the same way.

I already have items

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Wildfire Collection + The Gamma Collection

Variant 2 The Glove Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 3 The Glove Collection instead of The Gamma Collection Variant 4 The Clutch Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 5 The Clutch Collection instead of The Gamma Collection Variant 6 The Dead Hand Collection instead of The Gamma Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −15 084.50 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week −14 296.54 ₴ historical median

6% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Gamma Collection and The Wildfire Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 13 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3402430 · The Gamma Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −14 091.26₴ · invest 22 908.70₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist
Craft 3401953 · The Wildfire Collection + The Chroma Collection · profit −14 945.85₴ · invest 23 119.67₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AWP | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) instead of Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New); M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New): float at most 0.005045 instead of 0.008339
Craft 3401954 · The Chroma Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −14 945.85₴ · invest 23 119.67₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AWP | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) instead of Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New); M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New): float at most 0.005045 instead of 0.008339
Craft 3402617 · The Wildfire Collection + The Operation Broken Fang Collection · profit −14 953.23₴ · invest 25 312.87₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New); M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New): float at most 0.009319 instead of 0.008339
Craft 3402618 · The Operation Broken Fang Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −14 953.23₴ · invest 25 312.87₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New); M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New): float at most 0.009319 instead of 0.008339
Craft 3402877 · The Wildfire Collection + The Spectrum Collection · profit −15 113.30₴ · invest 22 827.68₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

USP-S | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New); M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New): float at most 0.008799 instead of 0.008339
Craft 3402878 · The Spectrum Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −15 113.30₴ · invest 22 827.68₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

USP-S | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New); M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New): float at most 0.008799 instead of 0.008339
Craft 3402399 · The Wildfire Collection + The Gamma 2 Collection · profit −15 130.15₴ · invest 23 947.59₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

FAMAS | Roll Cage (Factory New) instead of Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New); M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New): float at most 0.009319 instead of 0.008339
Craft 3402400 · The Gamma 2 Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −15 130.15₴ · invest 23 947.59₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

FAMAS | Roll Cage (Factory New) instead of Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New); M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New): float at most 0.009319 instead of 0.008339
Craft 3402867 · The Wildfire Collection + The Spectrum 2 Collection · profit −15 378.32₴ · invest 23 092.70₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

P250 | See Ya Later (Factory New) instead of Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New); M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New): float at most 0.008799 instead of 0.008339
Craft 3402868 · The Spectrum 2 Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −15 378.32₴ · invest 23 092.70₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

P250 | See Ya Later (Factory New) instead of Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New); M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New): float at most 0.008799 instead of 0.008339
Craft 3401519 · The Wildfire Collection + The Arms Deal 2 Collection · profit −15 424.50₴ · invest 24 059.95₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Factory New) instead of Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New); M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New): float at most 0.009293 instead of 0.008339
Craft 3401520 · The Arms Deal 2 Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −15 424.50₴ · invest 24 059.95₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Factory New) instead of Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New); M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New): float at most 0.009293 instead of 0.008339

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Wildfire Collection + The Gamma Collection

How to build i Ways to build 3 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 43 outcomes

More

How to build