The Wildfire Collection + The Operation Hydra Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Prices by float: ночной проверки нет, числа ниже — оценка с учётом float

Average profit at most · with float −576 696.03₸

Invest at least 934 559.72₸

Average return 357 863.70₸

ROI −61.7%

Chance of profit 6%

With float: invest at least 934 559.72 ₸, profit at most −576 696.03 ₸

float premium: at least 509 008 ₸

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

A more profitable set was dropped: +204 354.89 ₸ по средним

The gain is understated: 6 outcomes have no price, that is 21.0% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat / Market.CSGO: without them the profit is −362 579.36 ₸

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

≈2% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 4 шт., годных ≈1

×4

M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0093

161 647.81 ₸

at 40 411.95

if this one runs out, you can take

AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New) — 232 147.31 ₸ +191 735.36 ₸ per item · on the market 19 · buy 0.0000–0.0145

Steam

×1

Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0093

255 677.14 ₸

at 255 677.14

if this one runs out, you can take

AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New) — 309 315.84 ₸ +53 638.69 ₸ per item · on the market 11 · buy 0.0000–0.0046

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 417 324.95 ₸ −59 461.26 (−14.2%)

The gain is understated: 6 outcomes have no price, that is 18.8% of the chance

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −18 113 ₸

≈2% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 3 шт., годных ≈1

×3

M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0101

121 235.86 ₸

at 40 411.95

if this one runs out, you can take

AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New) — 232 147.31 ₸ +191 735.36 ₸ per item · on the market 19 · buy 0.0000–0.0157

Steam

×2

Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0101

511 354.28 ₸

at 255 677.14

if this one runs out, you can take

AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New) — 309 315.84 ₸ +53 638.69 ₸ per item · on the market 11 · buy 0.0000–0.0050

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 632 590.14 ₸ +28 477.42 (+4.5%)

What you get 37 outcomes

Profitable outcome 8%
Losing outcome 71%
Above the Steam cap 21%

Order

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

93 825.35 ₸ 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.013378

118 784.39 ₸ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

129 174.70 ₸ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Stained

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

71 409.51 ₸ 6.15%

rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

125 842.25 ₸ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

70 299.74 ₸ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Night

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

59 788.96 ₸ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ Bowie Knife | Scorched

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

37 617.14 ₸ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

70 325.44 ₸ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife

no wear

40 096.23 ₸ 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Spruce DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

339 123.99 ₸ 0.83%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Badlands

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

305 948.51 ₸ 0.83%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Leather

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

385 530.54 ₸ 0.83%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Hand Wraps | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

522 196.93 ₸ 0.83%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Eclipse

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

296 520.17 ₸ 0.83%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Spearmint

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

2 467 228.96 ₸ 0.83%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Boom!

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

348 515.49 ₸ 0.83%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Cool Mint

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

987 674.55 ₸ 0.83%

sell on Market.CSGO

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Lunar Weave

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

516 080.91 ₸ 0.83%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Convoy

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

235 405.31 ₸ 0.83%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

853 344.34 ₸ 0.83%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

★ Driver Gloves | Diamondback

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 0.83%

Steam

at a loss

★ Specialist Gloves | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

207 797.91 ₸ 0.83%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 923 985.90 ₸ 0.83%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 0.83%

Steam

★ Specialist Gloves | Foundation

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 0.83%

Steam

in profit

best

★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

13 264 185.01 ₸ 0.83%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

4 025 431.16 ₸ 0.83%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Arid

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 493 918.43 ₸ 0.83%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

9 681 039.75 ₸ 0.83%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Charred

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

328 739.75 ₸ 0.83%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Guerrilla

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

139 151.49 ₸ 0.83%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Bronzed

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

190 298.67 ₸ 0.83%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Snakebite

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

159 966.99 ₸ 0.83%

sell on Market.CSGO

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Wildfire Collection + The Operation Hydra Collection

Variant 2 The Glove Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 3 only The Operation Hydra Collection Variant 4 The Clutch Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 5 The Glove Collection instead of The Operation Hydra Collection Variant 6 The Operation Riptide Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −66 473.05 ₸ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week −60 899.35 ₸ historical median

7% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Operation Hydra Collection and The Wildfire Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 1 craft almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3402652 · The Operation Hydra Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −59 461.27₸ · invest 417 324.95₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Wildfire Collection + The Operation Hydra Collection

How to build i Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 37 outcomes

More

How to build