The Falchion Collection

StatTrak™ Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Average profit −21 707.32₽

Invest 29 117.90₽

Average return 7 410.58₽

ROI −74.5%

Chance of profit 0%

With float: invest 29 461.26 ₽, profit −22 050.68 ₽

float premium: none: float doesn't matter

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

The gain is understated: 1 outcome has no price, that is 7.7% of the chance

Check:

To calculator I have items

Buy on Sell on

How to build

100% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 4 шт., годных ≈15

×1

StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast

Well-Worn

any lot

5 481.90 ₽

at 5 481.90

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Well-Worn) — 6 003.94 ₽ +522.04 ₽ per item · on the market 10 · buy 0.3800–0.4500

Steam

×4

StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast

Battle-Scarred

any lot

23 636.00 ₽

at 5 909.00

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Well-Worn) — 6 003.94 ₽ +94.94 ₽ per item · on the market 10 · buy 0.3800–0.4500

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 29 117.90 ₽ −21 707.32 (−74.5%)

What you get 13 outcomes

Profitable outcome 0%
Losing outcome 92%
Above the Steam cap 8%

Order

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Fade

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.071200

not on Steam: above the cap 7.69%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

best

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Slaughter

Field-Tested

float up to 0.232500

18 221.09 ₽ 7.69%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Blue Steel

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.890000

10 706.96 ₽ 7.69%

price without deals price cut rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Stained

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.890000

7 185.45 ₽ 7.69%

price without deals price cut rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Case Hardened

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.890000

13 174.84 ₽ 7.69%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Forest DDPAT

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.718600

4 838.08 ₽ 7.69%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Boreal Forest

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.718600

6 365.56 ₽ 7.69%

price without deals price cut rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.718600

12 232.73 ₽ 7.69%

price without deals price cut rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Night

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.718600

8 351.37 ₽ 7.69%

price without deals price cut rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Scorched

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.718600

5 284.35 ₽ 7.69%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Safari Mesh

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.718600

5 998.53 ₽ 7.69%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Urban Masked

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.718600

6 442.25 ₽ 7.69%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife

no wear

11 987.01 ₽ 7.69%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one Covert → a knife or gloves

Variant 2 Mil-Spec → Restricted Variant 3 Classified → Covert

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −22 579.82 ₽ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week −21 829.50 ₽ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Falchion Collection

How to build i Ways to build 1 way: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 13 outcomes

More

How to build