The Falchion Collection + The CS20 Collection

StatTrak™ Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Prices by float: ночной проверки нет, числа ниже — оценка с учётом float

Average profit · with float −14 022.67₽

Invest 21 165.57₽

Average return 7 142.90₽

ROI −66.2%

Chance of profit 0%

With float: invest 21 165.57 ₽, profit −14 022.67 ₽

float premium: none: float doesn't matter

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

The gain is understated: 2 outcomes have no price, that is 7.7% of the chance

Check:

To calculator I have items

Buy on Sell on

How to build

100% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 4 шт., годных ≈6

×1

StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast

Well-Worn

any lot

5 481.90 ₽

at 5 481.90

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Well-Worn) — 6 003.94 ₽ +522.04 ₽ per item · on the market 10 · buy 0.3800–0.4500

Steam

×4

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Commemoration

Battle-Scarred

any lot

12 185.88 ₽

at 3 046.47

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ AWP | Wildfire (Battle-Scarred) — 6 900.00 ₽ +3 853.53 ₽ per item · on the market 6 · buy 0.4500–0.7000

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 17 667.78 ₽ −10 524.88 (−59.6%)

The gain is understated: 2 outcomes have no price, that is 7.7% of the chance

100% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 3 шт., годных ≈6

×1

StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast

Well-Worn

any lot

5 481.90 ₽

at 5 481.90

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Well-Worn) — 6 003.94 ₽ +522.04 ₽ per item · on the market 10 · buy 0.3800–0.4500

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast

Battle-Scarred

any lot

5 909.00 ₽

at 5 909.00

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Well-Worn) — 6 003.94 ₽ +94.94 ₽ per item · on the market 10 · buy 0.3800–0.4500

Steam

×3

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Commemoration

Battle-Scarred

any lot

9 139.41 ₽

at 3 046.47

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ AWP | Wildfire (Battle-Scarred) — 6 900.00 ₽ +3 853.53 ₽ per item · on the market 6 · buy 0.4500–0.7000

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 20 530.31 ₽ −13 320.49 (−64.9%)

The gain is understated: 2 outcomes have no price, that is 7.7% of the chance

100% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 2 шт., годных ≈15

×1

StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast

Well-Worn

any lot

5 481.90 ₽

at 5 481.90

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Well-Worn) — 6 003.94 ₽ +522.04 ₽ per item · on the market 10 · buy 0.3800–0.4500

Steam

×2

StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast

Battle-Scarred

any lot

11 818.00 ₽

at 5 909.00

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Well-Worn) — 6 003.94 ₽ +94.94 ₽ per item · on the market 10 · buy 0.3800–0.4500

Steam

×2

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Commemoration

Battle-Scarred

any lot

6 092.94 ₽

at 3 046.47

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ AWP | Wildfire (Battle-Scarred) — 6 900.00 ₽ +3 853.53 ₽ per item · on the market 6 · buy 0.4500–0.7000

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 23 392.84 ₽ −16 116.10 (−68.9%)

The gain is understated: 2 outcomes have no price, that is 7.7% of the chance

100% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 3 шт., годных ≈15

×1

StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast

Well-Worn

any lot

5 481.90 ₽

at 5 481.90

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Well-Worn) — 6 003.94 ₽ +522.04 ₽ per item · on the market 10 · buy 0.3800–0.4500

Steam

×3

StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast

Battle-Scarred

any lot

17 727.00 ₽

at 5 909.00

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Well-Worn) — 6 003.94 ₽ +94.94 ₽ per item · on the market 10 · buy 0.3800–0.4500

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Commemoration

Battle-Scarred

any lot

3 046.47 ₽

at 3 046.47

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ AWP | Wildfire (Battle-Scarred) — 6 900.00 ₽ +3 853.53 ₽ per item · on the market 6 · buy 0.4500–0.7000

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 26 255.37 ₽ −18 911.71 (−72.0%)

What you get 26 outcomes

Profitable outcome 0%
Losing outcome 92%
Above the Steam cap 8%

Order

★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Fade

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.071200

not on Steam: above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Slaughter

Field-Tested

float up to 0.232500

11 646.45 ₽ 6.15%

price without deals price cut rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Blue Steel

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.890000

8 799.66 ₽ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Stained

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.890000

7 740.56 ₽ 6.15%

price without deals price cut rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Case Hardened

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.890000

13 639.57 ₽ 6.15%

price without deals price cut rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Forest DDPAT

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.718600

5 599.70 ₽ 6.15%

price without deals price cut rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Boreal Forest

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.718600

5 511.89 ₽ 6.15%

price without deals price cut rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Crimson Web

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.718600

11 581.63 ₽ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Scorched

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.718600

6 345.47 ₽ 6.15%

price without deals price cut rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Safari Mesh

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.718600

4 151.36 ₽ 6.15%

price without deals price cut rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Night Stripe

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.718600

7 193.66 ₽ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Urban Masked

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.718600

6 900.59 ₽ 6.15%

price without deals price cut rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife

no wear

16 675.34 ₽ 6.15%

rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Fade

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.071200

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

best

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Slaughter

Field-Tested

float up to 0.232500

18 221.09 ₽ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Blue Steel

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.890000

10 706.96 ₽ 1.54%

price without deals price cut rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Stained

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.890000

7 185.45 ₽ 1.54%

price without deals price cut rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Case Hardened

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.890000

13 174.84 ₽ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Forest DDPAT

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.718600

4 838.08 ₽ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Boreal Forest

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.718600

6 365.56 ₽ 1.54%

price without deals price cut rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.718600

12 232.73 ₽ 1.54%

price without deals price cut rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Night

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.718600

8 351.37 ₽ 1.54%

price without deals price cut rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Scorched

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.718600

5 284.35 ₽ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Safari Mesh

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.718600

5 998.53 ₽ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Urban Masked

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.718600

6 442.25 ₽ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife

no wear

11 987.01 ₽ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

No other variants in this recount

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −11 987.38 ₽ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week −10 788.18 ₽ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The CS20 Collection and The Falchion Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 15 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3404771 · The Shattered Web Collection + The CS20 Collection · profit −9 994.63₽ · invest 17 520.22₽
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Stalker (Well-Worn) instead of StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)
Craft 3404775 · The CS20 Collection + The Shattered Web Collection · profit −9 994.63₽ · invest 17 520.22₽
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Stalker (Well-Worn) instead of StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)
Craft 3404861 · The eSports 2014 Summer Collection + The CS20 Collection · profit −10 112.97₽ · invest 19 654.04₽
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)
Craft 3404866 · The CS20 Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit −10 112.97₽ · invest 19 654.04₽
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)
Craft 3404722 · The Phoenix Collection + The CS20 Collection · profit −10 144.60₽ · invest 19 685.67₽
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ AUG | Chameleon (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)
Craft 3404727 · The CS20 Collection + The Phoenix Collection · profit −10 144.60₽ · invest 19 685.67₽
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ AUG | Chameleon (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)
Craft 3404611 · The CS20 Collection + The Falchion Collection · profit −10 524.88₽ · invest 17 667.78₽
no outcome price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist
Craft 3404751 · The Revolver Case Collection + The CS20 Collection · profit −10 529.40₽ · invest 20 070.47₽
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)
Craft 3404756 · The CS20 Collection + The Revolver Case Collection · profit −10 529.40₽ · invest 20 070.47₽
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)
Craft 3404664 · The Gamma Collection + The CS20 Collection · profit −10 817.93₽ · invest 20 984.88₽
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Battle-Scarred) instead of StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Well-Worn); StatTrak™ FAMAS | Commemoration (Battle-Scarred): float at most 0.499999 instead of 0.500000
Craft 3404673 · The CS20 Collection + The Gamma Collection · profit −10 817.93₽ · invest 20 984.88₽
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Battle-Scarred) instead of StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Well-Worn); StatTrak™ FAMAS | Commemoration (Battle-Scarred): float at most 0.499999 instead of 0.500000
Craft 3403445 · The CS20 Collection + The Arms Deal 3 Collection · profit −10 835.62₽ · invest 20 376.69₽
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Victoria (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)
Craft 3403450 · The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The CS20 Collection · profit −10 835.62₽ · invest 20 376.69₽
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Victoria (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)
Craft 3404807 · The Vanguard Collection + The CS20 Collection · profit −10 844.81₽ · invest 20 385.88₽
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ P2000 | Fire Elemental (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)
Craft 3404812 · The CS20 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit −10 844.81₽ · invest 20 385.88₽
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ P2000 | Fire Elemental (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Falchion Collection + The CS20 Collection

How to build i Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 26 outcomes

More

How to build