The Shadow Collection + The CS20 Collection

StatTrak™ Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Average profit −8 505.96₴

Invest 12 868.91₴

Average return 4 362.96₴

ROI −66.1%

Chance of profit 6%

With float: invest at least 28 420.00 ₴, profit at most −24 057.04 ₴

float premium: at least 15 844 ₴

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 13.8% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat: without them the profit is −8 985.11 ₴

Check:

To calculator I have items

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Share of fitting lots unknown: not enough for a contract: 1 items needed, market lots unknown

×1

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Golden Coil

Battle-Scarred

buy 0.4500–0.5543

4 917.90 ₴

at 4 917.90

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred) — 9 316.46 ₴ +4 398.57 ₴ per item · on the market 3 · buy 0.4500–0.5543

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Commemoration

Battle-Scarred

buy 0.4500–0.4594

1 719.56 ₴

at 1 719.56

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ AWP | Wildfire (Battle-Scarred) — 3 894.66 ₴ +2 175.10 ₴ per item · on the market 6 · buy 0.4500–0.6440

Steam

×3

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Commemoration

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1936

6 231.46 ₴

at 2 077.15

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ AWP | Wildfire (Field-Tested) — 4 708.14 ₴ +2 630.99 ₴ per item · on the market 22 · buy 0.1500–0.2772

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 12 868.91 ₴ −8 505.96 (−66.1%)

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 12.3% of the chance

Share of fitting lots unknown: not enough for a contract: 2 items needed, market lots unknown

×2

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Golden Coil

Battle-Scarred

buy 0.4500–0.5110

9 835.79 ₴

at 4 917.90

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred) — 9 316.46 ₴ +4 398.57 ₴ per item · on the market 3 · buy 0.4500–0.5110

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Commemoration

Battle-Scarred

buy 0.4500–0.4555

1 719.56 ₴

at 1 719.56

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ AWP | Wildfire (Battle-Scarred) — 3 894.66 ₴ +2 175.10 ₴ per item · on the market 6 · buy 0.4500–0.6386

Steam

×2

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Commemoration

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1755

4 154.30 ₴

at 2 077.15

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ AWP | Wildfire (Field-Tested) — 4 708.14 ₴ +2 630.99 ₴ per item · on the market 22 · buy 0.1500–0.2522

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 15 709.66 ₴ −11 666.23 (−74.3%)

What you get 26 outcomes

Profitable outcome 0%
Losing outcome 80%
About break-even 6%
Above the Steam cap 14%

Order

about break-even

best

★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.042162

14 955.37 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Slaughter

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.141756

6 573.76 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Blue Steel

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.527026

4 966.91 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Stained

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.527026

4 369.11 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals price cut rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Case Hardened

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.527026

7 698.77 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals price cut rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Forest DDPAT

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

3 160.71 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals price cut rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Boreal Forest

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

3 111.15 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Crimson Web

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

7 945.10 ₴ 6.15%

sell on CSFloat price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Scorched

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

not on Steam: above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Safari Mesh

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

2 343.21 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Night Stripe

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

4 457.75 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals price cut rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Urban Masked

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

not on Steam: above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife

no wear

9 412.29 ₴ 6.15%

rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.042162

7 662.98 ₴ 1.54%

rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Slaughter

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.141756

5 892.48 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Blue Steel

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.527026

2 724.64 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Stained

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.527026

3 176.60 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals price cut rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Case Hardened

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.527026

6 176.55 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Forest DDPAT

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

2 999.32 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals price cut rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Boreal Forest

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

2 074.27 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals price cut rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Crimson Web

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

4 370.17 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals price cut rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Night

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Scorched

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

2 209.29 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Safari Mesh

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

1 855.73 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals price cut rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Urban Masked

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

2 478.30 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals price cut rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers

no wear

4 497.95 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

float markup by input how many times more the lots with the needed float cost

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred) × 1 19% of the wear range fits at least ×2.16 4 917.90 → 10 622.65 ₴

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Commemoration (Battle-Scarred) × 1 19% of the wear range fits at least ×2.16 1 719.56 → 3 714.25 ₴

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Commemoration (Field-Tested) × 3 19% of the wear range fits at least ×2.26 6 231.46 → 14 083.09 ₴

The markup is taken from a check of Steam 25–26.09.2026 listings. It shows how many times the needed number of cheapest listings with a fitting float cost more than the cheapest listing of this wear. It depends on the width of the float window and on the number of items.

Average float of the set

average normalized 0.527026927

outcomes come out up to 0.042162, 0.141756, 0.527026, 0.527026, 0.527026, 0.449999, 0.449999, 0.449999, 0.449999, 0.449999, 0.449999, 0.449999, 0.000000, 0.042162, 0.141756, 0.527026, 0.527026, 0.527026, 0.449999, 0.449999, 0.449999, 0.449999, 0.449999, 0.449999, 0.449999, 0.000000

How to read float

«No higher than» — is a guarantee. The limits are calculated together: take all items with the float at the upper bound and you get exactly the result shown. With a lower float the result will be better.

f′ — the same float, brought to 0–1 by the skin's own range. CSFloat counts the same way.

I already have items

No other variants in this recount

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −9 139.52 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week −8 493.09 ₴ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The CS20 Collection and The Shadow Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 1 craft almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3404767 · The CS20 Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit −8 505.96₴ · invest 12 868.91₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Shadow Collection + The CS20 Collection

How to build i Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 26 outcomes

More

How to build