The Falchion Collection + The Dreams & Nightmares Collection

StatTrak™ Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Prices by float: ночной проверки нет, числа ниже — оценка с учётом float

Average profit at most · with float −42 320.06₴

Invest at least 48 910.54₴

Average return 6 590.48₴

ROI −86.5%

Chance of profit 1%

With float: invest at least 48 910.54 ₴, profit at most −42 320.06 ₴

float premium: at least 26 406 ₴

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

The gain is understated: 1 outcome has no price, that is 6.2% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat: without them the profit is −16 298.47 ₴

Check:

To calculator I have items

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 3 шт., годных ≈0

×3

StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1736

10 074.37 ₴

at 3 358.12

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested) — 4 910.09 ₴ +1 551.97 ₴ per item · on the market 22 · buy 0.1500–0.1736

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0782

6 544.16 ₴

at 6 544.16

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Minimal Wear) — 9 159.22 ₴ +2 615.06 ₴ per item · on the market 17 · buy 0.0700–0.0782

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ MP9 | Starlight Protector

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0071

5 558.83 ₴

at 5 558.83

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Nightwish (Factory New) — 7 728.01 ₴ +2 169.17 ₴ per item · on the market 22 · buy 0.0000–0.0089

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 22 177.36 ₴ −15 586.88 (−70.3%)

What you get 43 outcomes

Profitable outcome 4%
Losing outcome 90%
Above the Steam cap 6%

Order

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.009729

13 676.79 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.040405

12 867.18 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Blue Steel

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

6 043.48 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Stained

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

5 112.24 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Case Hardened

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

9 820.45 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Forest DDPAT

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

3 502.81 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Boreal Forest

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

3 736.78 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

not on Steam: above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Night

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

4 726.76 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Scorched

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

3 877.04 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Safari Mesh

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

3 729.56 ₴ 6.15%

rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Urban Masked

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

4 665.95 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife

no wear

6 765.99 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

best

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler

Factory New

float up to 0.009729

69 930.47 ₴ 0.67%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number 5 phases, price averaged

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Freehand

Factory New

float up to 0.058378

37 440.98 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Lore

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

47 187.74 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.103378

38 986.27 ₴ 0.67%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Black Laminate

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

30 494.62 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water

Factory New

float up to 0.060810

38 852.52 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler

Factory New

float up to 0.009729

13 179.56 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number 5 phases, price averaged

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Freehand

Factory New

float up to 0.058378

4 885.49 ₴ 0.67%

rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Lore

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.079053

6 773.72 ₴ 0.67%

rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Autotronic

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.103378

6 414.52 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Black Laminate

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

3 343.31 ₴ 0.67%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Bright Water

Factory New

float up to 0.060810

5 009.17 ₴ 0.67%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler

Factory New

float up to 0.009729

5 221.05 ₴ 0.67%

pricier variants exist lots by number 5 phases, price averaged

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Freehand

Factory New

float up to 0.058378

3 676.79 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Lore

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

4 113.03 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Autotronic

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.103378

3 407.72 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Black Laminate

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

3 000.35 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Bright Water

Factory New

float up to 0.060810

3 049.97 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler

Factory New

float up to 0.009729

9 201.93 ₴ 0.67%

pricier variants exist lots by number 5 phases, price averaged

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Freehand

Factory New

float up to 0.058378

4 806.15 ₴ 0.67%

rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Lore

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

7 242.64 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Autotronic

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.103378

4 806.12 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Black Laminate

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

3 191.03 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Bright Water

Factory New

float up to 0.060810

3 990.33 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler

Factory New

float up to 0.009729

13 300.70 ₴ 0.67%

pricier variants exist lots by number 5 phases, price averaged

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Freehand

Factory New

float up to 0.058378

4 782.42 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Lore

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.079053

6 367.35 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Autotronic

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.103378

7 055.74 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Black Laminate

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

4 013.01 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Bright Water

Factory New

float up to 0.060810

4 454.14 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

float markup by input how many times more the lots with the needed float cost

StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) × 3 10% of the wear range fits at least ×2.26 10 074.37 → 22 768.08 ₴

StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) × 1 10% of the wear range fits at least ×2.16 6 544.16 → 14 135.38 ₴

StatTrak™ MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New) × 1 10% of the wear range fits at least ×2.16 5 558.83 → 12 007.08 ₴

The markup is taken from a check of Steam 25–26.09.2026 listings. It shows how many times the needed number of cheapest listings with a fitting float cost more than the cheapest listing of this wear. It depends on the width of the float window and on the number of items.

Average float of the set

average normalized 0.121621522

outcomes come out up to 0.009729, 0.040405, 0.121621, 0.121621, 0.121621, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.000000, 0.009729, 0.058378, 0.121621, 0.103378, 0.121621, 0.060810, 0.009729, 0.058378, 0.079053, 0.103378, 0.121621, 0.060810, 0.009729, 0.058378, 0.121621, 0.103378, 0.121621, 0.060810, 0.009729, 0.058378, 0.121621, 0.103378, 0.121621, 0.060810, 0.009729, 0.058378, 0.079053, 0.103378, 0.121621, 0.060810

How to read float

«No higher than» — is a guarantee. The limits are calculated together: take all items with the float at the upper bound and you get exactly the result shown. With a lower float the result will be better.

f′ — the same float, brought to 0–1 by the skin's own range. CSFloat counts the same way.

I already have items

No other variants in this recount

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −16 480.48 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week −15 762.18 ₴ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Dreams & Nightmares Collection and The Falchion Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 15 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3406508 · The Gamma Collection + The Falchion Collection · profit −14 511.75₴ · invest 22 826.29₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New); StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested): float at most 0.172525 instead of 0.173632; StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.077835 instead of 0.078219
Craft 3406516 · The Falchion Collection + The Gamma Collection · profit −14 511.75₴ · invest 22 826.29₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New); StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested): float at most 0.172525 instead of 0.173632; StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.077835 instead of 0.078219
Craft 3406529 · The Huntsman Collection + The Falchion Collection · profit −14 547.00₴ · invest 20 061.37₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New); StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested): float at most 0.173292 instead of 0.173632; StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.078101 instead of 0.078219
Craft 3406533 · The Falchion Collection + The Huntsman Collection · profit −14 547.00₴ · invest 20 061.37₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New); StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested): float at most 0.173292 instead of 0.173632; StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.078101 instead of 0.078219
Craft 3406013 · The Falchion Collection + The Danger Zone Collection · profit −14 596.38₴ · invest 20 674.46₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ AWP | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New); StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested): float at most 0.172268 instead of 0.173632; StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.077745 instead of 0.078219
Craft 3406017 · The Danger Zone Collection + The Falchion Collection · profit −14 596.38₴ · invest 20 674.46₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ AWP | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New); StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested): float at most 0.172268 instead of 0.173632; StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.077745 instead of 0.078219
Craft 3406473 · The Fracture Collection + The Falchion Collection · profit −14 673.22₴ · invest 20 180.87₴
no outcome price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New); StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested): float at most 0.173292 instead of 0.173632; StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.078101 instead of 0.078219
Craft 3406477 · The Falchion Collection + The Fracture Collection · profit −14 673.22₴ · invest 20 180.87₴
no outcome price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New); StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested): float at most 0.173292 instead of 0.173632; StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.078101 instead of 0.078219
Craft 3404609 · The Falchion Collection + The CS20 Collection · profit −14 696.02₴ · invest 20 118.41₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New); StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested): float at most 0.172268 instead of 0.173632; StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.077745 instead of 0.078219
Craft 3404615 · The CS20 Collection + The Falchion Collection · profit −14 696.02₴ · invest 20 118.41₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New); StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested): float at most 0.172268 instead of 0.173632; StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.077745 instead of 0.078219
Craft 3406587 · The Prisma Collection + The Falchion Collection · profit −15 061.62₴ · invest 21 418.64₴
no outcome price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New); StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested): float at most 0.173292 instead of 0.173632; StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.078101 instead of 0.078219
Craft 3406593 · The Falchion Collection + The Prisma Collection · profit −15 061.62₴ · invest 21 418.64₴
no outcome price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New); StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested): float at most 0.173292 instead of 0.173632; StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.078101 instead of 0.078219
Craft 3406462 · The Fever Collection + The Falchion Collection · profit −15 129.46₴ · invest 20 931.31₴
no outcome price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Bad Trip (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New); StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested): float at most 0.174124 instead of 0.173632; StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.078391 instead of 0.078219
Craft 3406468 · The Falchion Collection + The Fever Collection · profit −15 129.46₴ · invest 20 931.31₴
no outcome price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Bad Trip (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New); StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested): float at most 0.174124 instead of 0.173632; StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.078391 instead of 0.078219
Craft 3406207 · The Dreams & Nightmares Collection + The Falchion Collection · profit −15 586.88₴ · invest 22 177.36₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Falchion Collection + The Dreams & Nightmares Collection

How to build i Ways to build 1 way: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 43 outcomes

More

How to build