The Wildfire Collection + The Dreams & Nightmares Collection

StatTrak™ Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Average profit −219.17$

Invest 374.42$

Average return 155.25$

ROI −58.5%

Chance of profit 4%

With float: invest at least 823.75 $, profit at most −668.50 $

float premium: at least 420 $

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

The gain is understated: 1 outcome has no price, that is 6.2% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat / Market.CSGO: without them the profit is −239.06 $

Check:

To calculator I have items

Buy on Sell on

How to build

0% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 2 шт., годных ≈0

×2

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0749

112.02 $

at 56.01

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) — 669.68 $ +613.68 $ per item · on the market 11 · buy 0.0700–0.1170

Steam

×2

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0043

187.76 $

at 93.88

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New) — 1 140.51 $ +1 046.63 $ per item · on the market 2 · buy 0.0000–0.0067

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Nightwish

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1641

74.65 $

at 74.65

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ MP9 | Starlight Protector (Minimal Wear) — 88.20 $ +13.55 $ per item · on the market 50 · buy 0.0700–0.1313

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 374.42 $ −219.17 (−58.5%)

What you get 43 outcomes

Profitable outcome 4%
Losing outcome 90%
Above the Steam cap 6%

Order

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.006588

271.22 $ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.030588

232.35 $ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.082352

115.23 $ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Stained

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.082352

136.36 $ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.082352

245.28 $ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.120941

not on Steam: above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.120941

84.46 $ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.120941

180.34 $ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Night

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.120941

157.14 $ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Scorched

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.120941

99.16 $ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.120941

78.09 $ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.120941

109.31 $ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife

no wear

91.15 $ 6.15%

rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler

Factory New

float up to 0.006588

1 539.12 $ 0.67%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number 5 phases, price averaged

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Freehand

Factory New

float up to 0.039529

824.05 $ 0.67%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Lore

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.082352

1 038.57 $ 0.67%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

best

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 552.88 $ 0.67%

sell on Market.CSGO pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Black Laminate

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.082352

671.16 $ 0.67%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water

Factory New

float up to 0.041176

855.12 $ 0.67%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler

Factory New

float up to 0.006588

290.07 $ 0.67%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number 5 phases, price averaged

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Freehand

Factory New

float up to 0.039529

107.53 $ 0.67%

rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Lore

Factory New

float up to 0.053529

188.72 $ 0.67%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Autotronic

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

220.56 $ 0.67%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Black Laminate

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.082352

73.58 $ 0.67%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Bright Water

Factory New

float up to 0.041176

110.25 $ 0.67%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler

Factory New

float up to 0.006588

114.91 $ 0.67%

pricier variants exist lots by number 5 phases, price averaged

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Freehand

Factory New

float up to 0.039529

80.92 $ 0.67%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Lore

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.082352

90.52 $ 0.67%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Autotronic

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

113.00 $ 0.67%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Black Laminate

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.082352

66.04 $ 0.67%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Bright Water

Factory New

float up to 0.041176

67.13 $ 0.67%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler

Factory New

float up to 0.006588

202.53 $ 0.67%

pricier variants exist lots by number 5 phases, price averaged

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Freehand

Factory New

float up to 0.039529

105.78 $ 0.67%

rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Lore

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.082352

159.41 $ 0.67%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Autotronic

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

204.16 $ 0.67%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Black Laminate

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.082352

70.23 $ 0.67%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Bright Water

Factory New

float up to 0.041176

87.82 $ 0.67%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler

Factory New

float up to 0.006588

292.74 $ 0.67%

pricier variants exist lots by number 5 phases, price averaged

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Freehand

Factory New

float up to 0.039529

105.26 $ 0.67%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Lore

Factory New

float up to 0.053529

177.19 $ 0.67%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Autotronic

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

229.79 $ 0.67%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Black Laminate

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.082352

88.32 $ 0.67%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Bright Water

Factory New

float up to 0.041176

98.03 $ 0.67%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

float markup by input how many times more the lots with the needed float cost

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Minimal Wear) × 2 6% of the wear range fits at least ×2.21 112.02 → 247.56 $

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New) × 2 6% of the wear range fits at least ×2.21 187.76 → 414.95 $

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Nightwish (Field-Tested) × 1 6% of the wear range fits at least ×2.16 74.65 → 161.24 $

The markup is taken from a check of Steam 25–26.09.2026 listings. It shows how many times the needed number of cheapest listings with a fitting float cost more than the cheapest listing of this wear. It depends on the width of the float window and on the number of items.

Average float of the set

average normalized 0.082352841

outcomes come out up to 0.006588, 0.030588, 0.082352, 0.082352, 0.082352, 0.120941, 0.120941, 0.120941, 0.120941, 0.120941, 0.120941, 0.120941, 0.000000, 0.006588, 0.039529, 0.082352, 0.069999, 0.082352, 0.041176, 0.006588, 0.039529, 0.053529, 0.069999, 0.082352, 0.041176, 0.006588, 0.039529, 0.082352, 0.069999, 0.082352, 0.041176, 0.006588, 0.039529, 0.082352, 0.069999, 0.082352, 0.041176, 0.006588, 0.039529, 0.053529, 0.069999, 0.082352, 0.041176

How to read float

«No higher than» — is a guarantee. The limits are calculated together: take all items with the float at the upper bound and you get exactly the result shown. With a lower float the result will be better.

f′ — the same float, brought to 0–1 by the skin's own range. CSFloat counts the same way.

I already have items

No other variants in this recount

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −233.23 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week −221.92 $ historical median

6% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Dreams & Nightmares Collection and The Wildfire Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 7 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3406395 · The Dreams & Nightmares Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −219.17$ · invest 374.42$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist
Craft 3406842 · The Wildfire Collection + The Fever Collection · profit −223.82$ · invest 355.69$
no outcome price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Bad Trip (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ AK-47 | Nightwish (Field-Tested); StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075485 instead of 0.074924; StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New): float at most 0.004800 instead of 0.004309
Craft 3406853 · The Fever Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −223.82$ · invest 355.69$
no outcome price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Bad Trip (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ AK-47 | Nightwish (Field-Tested); StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075485 instead of 0.074924; StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New): float at most 0.004800 instead of 0.004309
Craft 3407415 · The Wildfire Collection + The Gamma 2 Collection · profit −231.72$ · invest 423.24$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Roll Cage (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ AK-47 | Nightwish (Field-Tested)
Craft 3407433 · The Gamma 2 Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −231.72$ · invest 423.24$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Roll Cage (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ AK-47 | Nightwish (Field-Tested)
Craft 3408300 · The Wildfire Collection + The Operation Riptide Collection · profit −238.94$ · invest 394.19$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ AK-47 | Nightwish (Field-Tested)
Craft 3408318 · The Operation Riptide Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −238.94$ · invest 394.19$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ AK-47 | Nightwish (Field-Tested)

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Wildfire Collection + The Dreams & Nightmares Collection

How to build i Ways to build 1 way: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 43 outcomes

More

How to build