The eSports 2013 Winter Collection + The Dreams & Nightmares Collection

StatTrak™ Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Average profit −12 441.77₴

Invest 23 503.30₴

Average return 11 061.53₴

ROI −52.9%

Chance of profit 12%

With float: invest at least 52 782.16 ₴, profit at most −41 720.63 ₴

float premium: at least 29 016 ₴

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

The gain is understated: 6 outcomes have no price, that is 5.5% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat / Market.CSGO: without them the profit is −15 338.37 ₴

Check:

To calculator I have items

Buy on Sell on

How to build

≈4% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 3 шт., годных ≈0

×3

StatTrak™ M4A4 | X-Ray

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1843

16 797.54 ₴

at 5 599.18

Steam

×2

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Nightwish

Well-Worn

buy 0.3800–0.3960

6 705.76 ₴

at 3 352.88

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ MP9 | Starlight Protector (Field-Tested) — 3 447.57 ₴ +94.69 ₴ per item · on the market 99 · buy 0.1500–0.3168

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 23 503.30 ₴ −12 441.77 (−52.9%)

What you get 95 outcomes

Profitable outcome 11%
Losing outcome 81%
About break-even 3%
Above the Steam cap 6%

Order

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler

Factory New

float up to 0.042162

69 930.47 ₴ 1.33%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number 5 phases, price averaged

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Freehand

Field-Tested

float up to 0.252972

23 111.76 ₴ 1.33%

rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

about break-even

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Lore

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.527026

27 247.93 ₴ 1.33%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic

Well-Worn

float up to 0.447972

36 943.68 ₴ 1.33%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

about break-even

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Black Laminate

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.527026

25 680.25 ₴ 1.33%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water

Field-Tested

float up to 0.263513

23 235.96 ₴ 1.33%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler

Factory New

float up to 0.042162

13 179.56 ₴ 1.33%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number 5 phases, price averaged

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Freehand

Field-Tested

float up to 0.252972

4 465.02 ₴ 1.33%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Lore

Field-Tested

float up to 0.342567

5 783.16 ₴ 1.33%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Autotronic

Well-Worn

float up to 0.447972

5 030.19 ₴ 1.33%

price without deals price cut rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Black Laminate

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.527026

3 343.31 ₴ 1.33%

price without deals price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Bright Water

Field-Tested

float up to 0.263513

3 850.34 ₴ 1.33%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler

Factory New

float up to 0.042162

5 221.05 ₴ 1.33%

pricier variants exist lots by number 5 phases, price averaged

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Freehand

Field-Tested

float up to 0.252972

2 272.81 ₴ 1.33%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Lore

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.527026

3 053.83 ₴ 1.33%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Autotronic

Well-Worn

float up to 0.447972

2 749.81 ₴ 1.33%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Black Laminate

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.527026

2 128.12 ₴ 1.33%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Bright Water

Field-Tested

float up to 0.263513

2 154.04 ₴ 1.33%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler

Factory New

float up to 0.042162

9 201.93 ₴ 1.33%

pricier variants exist lots by number 5 phases, price averaged

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Freehand

Field-Tested

float up to 0.252972

3 934.17 ₴ 1.33%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Lore

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.527026

4 473.24 ₴ 1.33%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Autotronic

Well-Worn

float up to 0.447972

3 454.89 ₴ 1.33%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Black Laminate

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.527026

2 908.61 ₴ 1.33%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Bright Water

Field-Tested

float up to 0.263513

3 030.55 ₴ 1.33%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler

Factory New

float up to 0.042162

13 300.70 ₴ 1.33%

pricier variants exist lots by number 5 phases, price averaged

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Freehand

Field-Tested

float up to 0.252972

3 636.02 ₴ 1.33%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Lore

Field-Tested

float up to 0.342567

4 608.01 ₴ 1.33%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Autotronic

Well-Worn

float up to 0.447972

5 393.73 ₴ 1.33%

price without deals price cut rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Black Laminate

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.527026

3 135.63 ₴ 1.33%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Bright Water

Field-Tested

float up to 0.263513

2 920.22 ₴ 1.33%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.042162

24 428.99 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Slaughter

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.141756

19 387.86 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals price cut rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Blue Steel

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.527026

9 853.55 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Stained

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.527026

6 539.75 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Case Hardened

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.527026

11 739.44 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals price cut rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Forest DDPAT

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

not on Steam: above the cap 0.92%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Boreal Forest

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

6 096.04 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals price cut rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Crimson Web

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

12 097.08 ₴ 0.92%

sell on Market.CSGO pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Night

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

6 905.13 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Scorched

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

6 030.59 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Safari Mesh

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

5 342.09 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Urban Masked

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

7 577.66 ₴ 0.92%

sell on Market.CSGO price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.042162

17 066.23 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Slaughter

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.141756

10 261.01 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Blue Steel

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.527026

7 322.05 ₴ 0.92%

sell on Market.CSGO price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Stained

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.527026

5 429.69 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Case Hardened

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.527026

7 260.72 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals price cut rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Forest DDPAT

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

4 329.43 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Boreal Forest

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

5 021.54 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals price cut rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Crimson Web

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

7 939.95 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Night

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

5 717.26 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals price cut rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Scorched

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

not on Steam: above the cap 0.92%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Safari Mesh

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

5 122.55 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals price cut rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Urban Masked

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

4 606.68 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.042162

6 926.78 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Slaughter

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.141756

6 135.72 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Blue Steel

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.527026

3 355.71 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals price cut rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Stained

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.527026

2 908.62 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Case Hardened

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.527026

4 649.98 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Forest DDPAT

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

2 326.28 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals price cut rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Boreal Forest

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

2 579.39 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals price cut rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Crimson Web

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

4 742.22 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals price cut rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Night

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

2 753.50 ₴ 0.92%

sell on Market.CSGO price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Scorched

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

2 759.17 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Safari Mesh

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

2 277.32 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Urban Masked

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

2 408.07 ₴ 0.92%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

best

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.042162

71 742.43 ₴ 0.92%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Slaughter

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.141756

45 310.85 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Blue Steel

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.527026

38 312.95 ₴ 0.92%

sell on Market.CSGO price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Stained

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.527026

20 026.89 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals price cut rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Case Hardened

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.527026

34 376.21 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Forest DDPAT

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

16 265.40 ₴ 0.92%

sell on Market.CSGO price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Boreal Forest

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

15 306.88 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Crimson Web

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

31 105.54 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Night

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

18 276.67 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Scorched

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

21 858.44 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Safari Mesh

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

not on Steam: above the cap 0.92%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Urban Masked

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

20 808.94 ₴ 0.92%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.042162

52 059.31 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.141756

36 110.36 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Blue Steel

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.527026

not on Steam: above the cap 0.92%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Stained

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.527026

15 447.01 ₴ 0.92%

sell on Market.CSGO price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Case Hardened

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.527026

20 205.21 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals price cut rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Forest DDPAT

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

12 989.51 ₴ 0.92%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Boreal Forest

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

13 232.05 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals price cut rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

17 543.44 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Night

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

14 980.62 ₴ 0.92%

sell on Market.CSGO price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Scorched

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

not on Steam: above the cap 0.92%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Safari Mesh

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

not on Steam: above the cap 0.92%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Urban Masked

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

14 938.88 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bayonet

no wear

11 462.47 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife

no wear

9 152.56 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife

no wear

3 968.69 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Karambit

no wear

53 576.50 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet

no wear

30 648.71 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

float markup by input how many times more the lots with the needed float cost

StatTrak™ M4A4 | X-Ray (Field-Tested) × 3 23% of the wear range fits at least ×2.26 16 797.54 → 37 962.43 ₴

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Nightwish (Well-Worn) × 2 23% of the wear range fits at least ×2.21 6 705.76 → 14 819.73 ₴

The markup is taken from a check of Steam 25–26.09.2026 listings. It shows how many times the needed number of cheapest listings with a fitting float cost more than the cheapest listing of this wear. It depends on the width of the float window and on the number of items.

Average float of the set

average normalized 0.527026927

outcomes come out up to 0.042162, 0.252972, 0.527026, 0.447972, 0.527026, 0.263513, 0.042162, 0.252972, 0.342567, 0.447972, 0.527026, 0.263513, 0.042162, 0.252972, 0.527026, 0.447972, 0.527026, 0.263513, 0.042162, 0.252972, 0.527026, 0.447972, 0.527026, 0.263513, 0.042162, 0.252972, 0.342567, 0.447972, 0.527026, 0.263513, 0.042162, 0.141756, 0.527026, 0.527026, 0.527026, 0.449999, 0.449999, 0.449999, 0.449999, 0.449999, 0.449999, 0.449999, 0.042162, 0.141756, 0.527026, 0.527026, 0.527026, 0.449999, 0.449999, 0.449999, 0.449999, 0.449999, 0.449999, 0.449999, 0.042162, 0.141756, 0.527026, 0.527026, 0.527026, 0.449999, 0.449999, 0.449999, 0.449999, 0.449999, 0.449999, 0.449999, 0.042162, 0.141756, 0.527026, 0.527026, 0.527026, 0.449999, 0.449999, 0.449999, 0.449999, 0.449999, 0.449999, 0.449999, 0.042162, 0.141756, 0.527026, 0.527026, 0.527026, 0.449999, 0.449999, 0.449999, 0.449999, 0.449999, 0.449999, 0.449999, 0.000000, 0.000000, 0.000000, 0.000000, 0.000000

How to read float

«No higher than» — is a guarantee. The limits are calculated together: take all items with the float at the upper bound and you get exactly the result shown. With a lower float the result will be better.

f′ — the same float, brought to 0–1 by the skin's own range. CSFloat counts the same way.

I already have items

No other variants in this recount

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −13 477.17 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week −12 644.10 ₴ historical median

3% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Dreams & Nightmares Collection and The eSports 2013 Winter Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The eSports 2013 Winter Collection + The Dreams & Nightmares Collection

How to build i Ways to build 2 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 95 outcomes

More

How to build