The Wildfire Collection + The Huntsman Collection

StatTrak™ Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Average profit −147.42$

Invest 272.63$

Average return 125.21$

ROI −54.1%

Chance of profit 2%

With float: invest at least 634.81 $, profit at most −509.60 $

float premium: at least 348 $

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

The gain is understated: 1 outcome has no price, that is 6.2% of the chance

Sell on Market.CSGO: without them the profit is −148.69 $

Check:

To calculator I have items

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 4 шт., годных ≈0

×4

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0791

224.04 $

at 56.01

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) — 669.68 $ +613.68 $ per item · on the market 11 · buy 0.0700–0.1237

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Desert-Strike

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0791

48.59 $

at 48.59

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Vulcan (Minimal Wear) — 1 100.22 $ +1 051.62 $ per item · on the market 9 · buy 0.0700–0.1018

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 272.63 $ −147.42 (−54.1%)

What you get 26 outcomes

Profitable outcome 2%
Losing outcome 91%
About break-even 2%
Above the Steam cap 6%

Order

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.009729

271.22 $ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.040405

232.35 $ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

115.23 $ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Stained

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

136.36 $ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

245.28 $ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

not on Steam: above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

84.46 $ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

180.34 $ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Night

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

157.14 $ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Scorched

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

99.16 $ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

78.09 $ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

109.31 $ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife

no wear

91.15 $ 6.15%

rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.009729

261.14 $ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

about break-even

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.040405

301.32 $ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Blue Steel

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

138.83 $ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Stained

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

113.03 $ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Case Hardened

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

262.62 $ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Forest DDPAT

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

82.07 $ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Boreal Forest

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

45.59 $ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

best

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Crimson Web

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

335.40 $ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Night

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

146.35 $ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Scorched

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

106.70 $ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Safari Mesh

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

86.96 $ 1.54%

sell on Market.CSGO pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Urban Masked

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

130.40 $ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife

no wear

140.65 $ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

No other variants in this recount

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −160.07 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week −149.42 $ historical median

6% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Huntsman Collection and The Wildfire Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 9 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3408024 · The Huntsman Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −147.42$ · invest 272.63$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist
Craft 3407008 · The Wildfire Collection + The Fracture Collection · profit −151.14$ · invest 276.21$
no outcome price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Minimal Wear)
Craft 3407016 · The Fracture Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −151.14$ · invest 276.21$
no outcome price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Minimal Wear)
Craft 3408704 · The Wildfire Collection + The Prisma Collection · profit −155.96$ · invest 299.72$
no outcome price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Minimal Wear)
Craft 3408715 · The Prisma Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −155.96$ · invest 299.72$
no outcome price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Minimal Wear)
Craft 3406840 · The Wildfire Collection + The Fever Collection · profit −156.90$ · invest 288.44$
no outcome price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Bad Trip (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.083876 instead of 0.079195
Craft 3406851 · The Fever Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −156.90$ · invest 288.44$
no outcome price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Bad Trip (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.083876 instead of 0.079195
Craft 3408588 · The Wildfire Collection + The Prisma 2 Collection · profit −157.55$ · invest 301.31$
no outcome price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.083876 instead of 0.079195
Craft 3408599 · The Prisma 2 Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −157.55$ · invest 301.31$
no outcome price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.083876 instead of 0.079195

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Wildfire Collection + The Huntsman Collection

How to build i Ways to build 1 way: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 26 outcomes

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How to build