The Shadow Collection
+ The Operation Riptide Collection
StatTrak™
Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5About the craftCraft 3408226 · ways to build: 3StatTrak™ craft. Inputs and outcome are StatTrak: a normal item won't do here, and the outcome sells at the StatTrak price, which differs from the price of the normal item.A contract of five Covert. The outcome is a knife or gloves from the inputs' collection, and it has many outcomes: the chance of a particular item is therefore small, and what counts is the average over all outcomes.The Steam fee is included. You can sell the outcome a week after crafting.
How to build
Ways to build
3 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.
!
Share of fitting lots unknown:not enough for a contract: 2 items needed, market lots unknown≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)
×2
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Golden Coil
Battle-Scarred
buy0.4500–0.9374
98 000.50 ₸
at 49 000.25
if this one runs out, you can take
StatTrak™ USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred) — 92 826.09 ₸+43 825.84 ₸ per item · on the market 3 · buy0.4500–0.9374
Lis-Skins: suitable 58 of 63 · from 28 959.39 ₸ (float 0.5019) · craft not before 01.11 · data 24.10 13:43 MSK
Set · 5 pcs206 224.00 ₸
−142 732.58
(−69.2%)
!
The gain is understated:2 outcomes have no price, that is 5.9% of the chance
They have no price on Steam: they are above its cap. They count as zero in the calculation, so the profit shown is a lower bound, and noticeably so.
!
Share of fitting lots unknown:not enough for a contract: 3 items needed, market lots unknown≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)
×3
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Golden Coil
Battle-Scarred
buy0.4500–0.9374
147 000.75 ₸
at 49 000.25
if this one runs out, you can take
StatTrak™ USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred) — 92 826.09 ₸+43 825.84 ₸ per item · on the market 3 · buy0.4500–0.9374
Lis-Skins: suitable 58 of 63 · from 28 959.39 ₸ (float 0.5019) · craft not before 01.11 · data 24.10 13:43 MSK
Set · 5 pcs219 149.75 ₸
−167 754.32
(−76.5%)
!
The gain is understated:2 outcomes have no price, that is 6.8% of the chance
They have no price on Steam: they are above its cap. They count as zero in the calculation, so the profit shown is a lower bound, and noticeably so.
!
Share of fitting lots unknown:not enough for a contract: 4 items needed, market lots unknown≈ market listings are not enough for even one contract (estimate)
×4
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Golden Coil
Battle-Scarred
buy0.4500–0.9374
196 001.00 ₸
at 49 000.25
if this one runs out, you can take
StatTrak™ USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred) — 92 826.09 ₸+43 825.84 ₸ per item · on the market 3 · buy0.4500–0.9374
FT costs more than MW: 59 434.65 ₸ versus 58 710.63 ₸ — calculated at the price of MWrarely sells: 0 a month — calculated at the buy order 59 434.65 ₸sell now to a buy order: 58 636.62 ₸
(you get 50 988.36 ₸)) · buy orders: 69
sell on Market.CSGO: 72 826.91 ₸ to your card
cheapest lot 79 854.12 · lots 3
on CSFloat: from 66 225.88 ₸listings: 4
on Lis-Skins: from 68 407.91 ₸listings: 4
rarely sells: 3 a month — calculated at the buy order 27 147.36 ₸sell now to a buy order: 26 789.40 ₸
(you get 23 295.09 ₸)) · buy orders: 99Market.CSGO: 2 listings, too few, no priceCSFloat: 2 listings, too few, no priceLis-Skins: 2 listings, too few, no price
BS costs more than MW: 40 482.31 ₸ versus 31 650.55 ₸ — calculated at the price of MWrarely sells: 1 a month — calculated at the buy order 40 482.31 ₸sell now to a buy order: 40 472.92 ₸
(you get 35 193.79 ₸)) · buy orders: 108Market.CSGO: 2 listings, too few, no price
rarely sells: 2 a month — calculated at the buy order 61 541.04 ₸sell now to a buy order: 61 520.29 ₸
(you get 53 495.90 ₸)) · buy orders: 111not listed on Market.CSGO right now
rarely sells: 3 a month — calculated at the buy order 29 206.39 ₸sell now to a buy order: 28 826.72 ₸
(you get 25 066.68 ₸)) · buy orders: 133
sell on Market.CSGO: 27 673.48 ₸ to your card
cheapest lot 30 343.78 · lots 6CSFloat: 2 listings, too few, no price
on Lis-Skins: from 27 678.26 ₸listings: 3
BS costs more than FT: 22 485.02 ₸ versus 20 667.36 ₸ — calculated at the price of FTrarely sells: 7 a month — calculated at the buy order 22 485.02 ₸sell now to a buy order: 22 476.52 ₸
(you get 19 544.77 ₸)) · buy orders: 131
sell on Market.CSGO: 25 952.00 ₸ to your card
cheapest lot 28 456.16 · lots 3
on CSFloat: from 31 689.19 ₸listings: 3Lis-Skins: 1 listings, too few, no price
rarely sells: 3 a month — calculated at the buy order 37 386.06 ₸sell now to a buy order: 37 371.32 ₸
(you get 32 496.78 ₸)) · buy orders: 115
sell on Market.CSGO: 49 751.49 ₸ to your card
cheapest lot 54 552.08 · lots 3CSFloat: 1 listings, too few, no price
on Lis-Skins: from 49 828.99 ₸listings: 3
Steam★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Night (Battle-Scarred)net 26 410.46 ₸
by lot · 0 sales per day
rarely sells: 1 a month — calculated at the buy order 30 372.01 ₸sell now to a buy order: 30 362.28 ₸
(you get 26 401.97 ₸)) · buy orders: 73Market.CSGO: 1 listings, too few, no priceCSFloat: 1 listings, too few, no priceLis-Skins: 1 listings, too few, no price
BS costs more than WW: 30 633.86 ₸ versus 22 012.66 ₸ — calculated at the price of WWrarely sells: 1 a month — calculated at the buy order 30 633.86 ₸sell now to a buy order: 30 620.75 ₸
(you get 26 626.70 ₸)) · buy orders: 101not listed on Market.CSGO right now
on CSFloat: from 23 830.26 ₸listings: 5Lis-Skins: 1 listings, too few, no price
BS costs more than FT: 28 133.24 ₸ versus 18 489.89 ₸ — calculated at the price of FTrarely sells: 0 a month — calculated at the buy order 28 133.24 ₸no buy orders
sell on Market.CSGO: 26 670.90 ₸ to your card
cheapest lot 29 244.41 · lots 4
on CSFloat: from 33 997.98 ₸listings: 3
on Lis-Skins: from 30 915.05 ₸listings: 3
BS costs more than MW: 38 546.50 ₸ versus 24 692.97 ₸ — calculated at the price of MWrarely sells: 0 a month — calculated at the buy order 38 546.50 ₸sell now to a buy order: 38 531.87 ₸
(you get 33 505.94 ₸)) · buy orders: 94
sell on Market.CSGO: 35 903.14 ₸ to your card
cheapest lot 39 367.48 · lots 3CSFloat: 2 listings, too few, no priceLis-Skins: 1 listings, too few, no price
rarely sells: 3 a month — calculated at the buy order 44 816.05 ₸no buy ordersMarket.CSGO: 2 listings, too few, no price
on CSFloat: from 37 117.06 ₸listings: 9
on Lis-Skins: from 41 440.40 ₸listings: 8
Steam★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)net 682 828.27 ₸The Operation Riptide Collectionno price on Steam, listing on CSFloat from 696 763.57 ₸listings 5 · you get 682 828.27 ₸ (2.0% fee from the price)ignoring float and patternMW costs more than FN: 873 715.94 ₸ versus 696 763.57 ₸ — calculated at the price of FNsell now to a buy order: 902 385.36 ₸
(you get 784 682.90 ₸)) · buy orders: 65
sell on Market.CSGO: 1 325 851.64 ₸ to your card
cheapest lot 1 453 784.69 · lots 3price ignores the phase
on CSFloat: from 873 715.94 ₸listings: 5
Steam★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Freehand (Well-Worn)The Operation Riptide Collectionsell now to a buy order: 283 792.04 ₸
(you get 246 775.65 ₸)) · buy orders: 75not listed on Market.CSGO right nowCSFloat: 2 listings, too few, no price
rarely sells: 8 a month — calculated at the buy order 271 489.20 ₸sell now to a buy order: 269 855.06 ₸
(you get 234 656.54 ₸)) · buy orders: 283
sell on Market.CSGO: 242 274.65 ₸ to your card
cheapest lot 265 652.07 · lots 12
on CSFloat: from 223 100.89 ₸listings: 12
on CS.Money: ~ 228 981.49 ₸
on Lis-Skins: from 240 810.58 ₸listings: 15
BS costs more than WW: 377 634.61 ₸ versus 368 094.29 ₸ — calculated at the price of WWrarely sells: 1 a month — calculated at the buy order 377 634.61 ₸sell now to a buy order: 370 682.65 ₸
(you get 322 332.69 ₸)) · buy orders: 164
sell on Market.CSGO: 306 210.58 ₸ to your card
cheapest lot 335 757.23 · lots 17
on CSFloat: from 286 452.05 ₸listings: 20
on CS.Money: ~ 314 664.47 ₸
on Lis-Skins: from 282 309.86 ₸listings: 36
rarely sells: 3 a month — calculated at the buy order 255 869.37 ₸sell now to a buy order: 255 806.60 ₸
(you get 222 440.47 ₸)) · buy orders: 101
sell on Market.CSGO: 249 421.71 ₸ to your card
cheapest lot 273 488.73 · lots 6
on CSFloat: from 224 970.57 ₸listings: 9
on CS.Money: ~ 251 467.24 ₸
on Lis-Skins: from 236 704.60 ₸listings: 28
Steam★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Battle-Scarred)net 219 939.46 ₸The Operation Riptide Collectionno price on Steam, listing on Market.CSGO from 231 515.24 ₸listings 6 · you get 219 939.46 ₸ (5.0% fee from the price)ignoring float and patternBS costs more than FT: 266 615.28 ₸ versus 231 515.24 ₸ — calculated at the price of FTsell now to a buy order: 275 936.66 ₸
(you get 239 944.89 ₸)) · buy orders: 217
sell on Market.CSGO: 243 153.11 ₸ to your card
cheapest lot 266 615.28 · lots 6CSFloat: 2 listings, too few, no price
on CS.Money: ~ 230 547.81 ₸
on Lis-Skins: from 247 922.54 ₸listings: 7
MW costs more than FN: 186 498.98 ₸ versus 131 316.69 ₸ — calculated at the price of FNrarely sells: 3 a month — calculated at the buy order 186 498.98 ₸sell now to a buy order: 184 038.85 ₸
(you get 160 033.74 ₸)) · buy orders: 160not listed on Market.CSGO right now
on CSFloat: from 158 396.11 ₸listings: 3
WW costs more than FT: 46 066.75 ₸ versus 44 487.95 ₸ — calculated at the price of FTmonth average 46 066.75 ₸, sold 10 — it costs more now, the calculation uses the averagesell now to a buy order: 42 104.81 ₸
(you get 36 612.88 ₸)) · buy orders: 71not listed on Market.CSGO right nowCSFloat: 2 listings, too few, no priceLis-Skins: 2 listings, too few, no price
BS costs more than FT: 53 474.19 ₸ versus 50 119.07 ₸ — calculated at the price of FTnow 53 474.19 ₸ — cheaper than the month average 54 744.75 ₸sell now to a buy order: 52 935.14 ₸
(you get 46 030.54 ₸)) · buy orders: 123
sell on Market.CSGO: 49 885.12 ₸ to your card
cheapest lot 54 698.63 · lots 10
on CSFloat: from 47 479.43 ₸listings: 4
on Lis-Skins: from 45 673.13 ₸listings: 35
BS costs more than MW: 33 864.86 ₸ versus 33 311.58 ₸ — calculated at the price of MWnow 33 864.86 ₸ — cheaper than the month average 34 859.34 ₸no buy orders
sell on Market.CSGO: 32 825.73 ₸ to your card
cheapest lot 35 993.12 · lots 8
on CSFloat: from 31 725.41 ₸listings: 8
on Lis-Skins: from 29 036.33 ₸listings: 32
rarely sells: 2 a month — calculated at the buy order 33 950.91 ₸sell now to a buy order: 33 499.36 ₸
(you get 29 129.85 ₸)) · buy orders: 50Market.CSGO: 2 listings, too few, no price
on CSFloat: from 34 129.24 ₸listings: 4
on CS.Money: ~ 30 616.26 ₸Lis-Skins: 2 listings, too few, no price
MW costs more than FN: 87 531.95 ₸ versus 52 020.75 ₸ — calculated at the price of FNrarely sells: 0 a month — calculated at the buy order 87 531.95 ₸sell now to a buy order: 87 133.89 ₸
(you get 75 768.56 ₸)) · buy orders: 121Market.CSGO: 2 listings, too few, no price
on CSFloat: from 84 202.70 ₸listings: 4
WW costs more than FT: 28 123.00 ₸ versus 22 645.47 ₸ — calculated at the price of FTrarely sells: 4 a month — calculated at the buy order 28 123.00 ₸no buy orders
sell on Market.CSGO: 32 312.83 ₸ to your card
cheapest lot 35 430.73 · lots 9
on CSFloat: from 32 594.58 ₸listings: 4
on CS.Money: ~ 22 770.94 ₸
on Lis-Skins: from 33 463.76 ₸listings: 8
Steam★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Lore (Battle-Scarred)net 26 458.54 ₸The Operation Riptide Collectionsells 11 a weeknow 30 427.35 ₸ — cheaper than the month average 34 089.03 ₸sell now to a buy order: 30 874.17 ₸
(you get 26 847.10 ₸)) · buy orders: 121
sell on Market.CSGO: 27 183.81 ₸ to your card
cheapest lot 29 806.80 · lots 11
on CSFloat: from 26 388.02 ₸listings: 4
on Lis-Skins: from 27 927.23 ₸listings: 20
Steam★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)net 23 517.40 ₸The Operation Riptide Collectionsells 5 a weeknow 27 045.01 ₸ — cheaper than the month average 29 979.35 ₸sell now to a buy order: 27 757.33 ₸
(you get 24 136.76 ₸)) · buy orders: 114
sell on Market.CSGO: 29 751.69 ₸ to your card
cheapest lot 32 622.48 · lots 8CSFloat: 1 listings, too few, no price
on CS.Money: ~ 24 839.81 ₸
on Lis-Skins: from 24 921.30 ₸listings: 32
Steam★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred)net 18 438.10 ₸The Operation Riptide Collectionsells 10 a weeknow 21 203.83 ₸ — cheaper than the month average 21 848.95 ₸sell now to a buy order: 22 055.85 ₸
(you get 19 178.99 ₸)) · buy orders: 127
sell on Market.CSGO: 21 062.78 ₸ to your card
cheapest lot 23 095.21 · lots 6
on CSFloat: from 45 270.24 ₸listings: 3
on CS.Money: ~ 19 217.23 ₸
on Lis-Skins: from 18 959.21 ₸listings: 32
BS costs more than FT: 27 049.84 ₸ versus 21 462.14 ₸ — calculated at the price of FTrarely sells: 0 a month — calculated at the buy order 27 049.84 ₸sell now to a buy order: 26 693.06 ₸
(you get 23 211.35 ₸)) · buy orders: 103
sell on Market.CSGO: 23 609.74 ₸ to your card
cheapest lot 25 887.88 · lots 7CSFloat: 1 listings, too few, no price
on Lis-Skins: from 24 427.86 ₸listings: 4
MW costs more than FN: 176 147.36 ₸ versus 91 684.94 ₸ — calculated at the price of FNrarely sells: 0 a month — calculated at the buy order 176 147.36 ₸sell now to a buy order: 173 821.81 ₸
(you get 151 149.35 ₸)) · buy orders: 157Market.CSGO: 1 listings, too few, no price
on CSFloat: from 153 918.85 ₸listings: 7
rarely sells: 4 a month — calculated at the buy order 33 283.40 ₸sell now to a buy order: 33 276.37 ₸
(you get 28 935.94 ₸)) · buy orders: 79Market.CSGO: 2 listings, too few, no price
on CSFloat: from 34 853.55 ₸listings: 3
on Lis-Skins: from 38 239.77 ₸listings: 3
Steam★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Lore (Battle-Scarred)net 38 756.38 ₸The Operation Riptide Collectionsells 10 a weekmonth average 44 569.83 ₸, sold 33 — it costs more now, the calculation uses the averagesell now to a buy order: 43 326.21 ₸
(you get 37 674.96 ₸)) · buy orders: 183
sell on Market.CSGO: 42 696.22 ₸ to your card
cheapest lot 46 816.08 · lots 12
on CSFloat: from 41 150.66 ₸listings: 6
on CS.Money: ~ 31 096.15 ₸
on Lis-Skins: from 43 024.83 ₸listings: 12
BS costs more than WW: 40 732.97 ₸ versus 34 423.32 ₸ — calculated at the price of WWrarely sells: 8 a month — calculated at the buy order 40 732.97 ₸sell now to a buy order: 41 131.76 ₸
(you get 35 766.70 ₸)) · buy orders: 146
sell on Market.CSGO: 41 291.03 ₸ to your card
cheapest lot 45 275.30 · lots 10CSFloat: 2 listings, too few, no price
on Lis-Skins: from 38 724.16 ₸listings: 13
Steam★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred)net 25 200.30 ₸The Operation Riptide Collectionsells 4 a weekmonth average 28 980.37 ₸, sold 12 — it costs more now, the calculation uses the averagesell now to a buy order: 29 206.79 ₸
(you get 25 397.20 ₸)) · buy orders: 79
sell on Market.CSGO: 27 483.00 ₸ to your card
cheapest lot 30 134.90 · lots 8
on CSFloat: from 29 470.94 ₸listings: 5
on CS.Money: ~ 25 998.73 ₸
on Lis-Skins: from 25 618.44 ₸listings: 43
BS costs more than FT: 30 448.55 ₸ versus 30 195.42 ₸ — calculated at the price of FTrarely sells: 0 a month — calculated at the buy order 30 448.55 ₸sell now to a buy order: 30 048.07 ₸
(you get 26 128.76 ₸)) · buy orders: 27Market.CSGO: 1 listings, too few, no priceCSFloat: 2 listings, too few, no price
rarely sells: 3 a month — calculated at the buy order 130 473.77 ₸sell now to a buy order: 131 879.14 ₸
(you get 114 677.46 ₸)) · buy orders: 109Market.CSGO: 1 listings, too few, no price
on CSFloat: from 152 157.83 ₸listings: 10
rarely sells: 8 a month — calculated at the buy order 27 989.49 ₸sell now to a buy order: 27 706.66 ₸
(you get 24 092.73 ₸)) · buy orders: 83
sell on Market.CSGO: 65 630.98 ₸ to your card
cheapest lot 71 963.80 · lots 5CSFloat: 2 listings, too few, no price
on Lis-Skins: from 68 928.52 ₸listings: 3
BS costs more than FT: 49 552.91 ₸ versus 45 912.66 ₸ — calculated at the price of FTmonth average 49 552.91 ₸, sold 17 — it costs more now, the calculation uses the averagesell now to a buy order: 42 991.70 ₸
(you get 37 384.09 ₸)) · buy orders: 91
sell on Market.CSGO: 42 057.91 ₸ to your card
cheapest lot 46 116.13 · lots 9CSFloat: 2 listings, too few, no price
on Lis-Skins: from 44 505.21 ₸listings: 10
rarely sells: 7 a month — calculated at the buy order 51 992.51 ₸no buy orders
sell on Market.CSGO: 61 466.80 ₸ to your card
cheapest lot 67 397.85 · lots 3
on CSFloat: from 46 175.69 ₸listings: 8
on CS.Money: ~ 40 444.46 ₸
on Lis-Skins: from 60 548.98 ₸listings: 3
Steam★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred)net 27 167.27 ₸The Operation Riptide Collectionsells 4 a weeknow 31 242.37 ₸ — cheaper than the month average 34 112.37 ₸sell now to a buy order: 31 310.02 ₸
(you get 27 226.10 ₸)) · buy orders: 113
sell on Market.CSGO: 29 468.13 ₸ to your card
cheapest lot 32 311.59 · lots 11
on CSFloat: from 32 585.53 ₸listings: 5
on CS.Money: ~ 28 751.14 ₸
on Lis-Skins: from 27 804.97 ₸listings: 50
BS costs more than WW: 37 391.17 ₸ versus 20 764.88 ₸ — calculated at the price of WWrarely sells: 1 a month — calculated at the buy order 37 391.17 ₸sell now to a buy order: 37 386.56 ₸
(you get 32 510.00 ₸)) · buy orders: 60
sell on Market.CSGO: 37 954.75 ₸ to your card
cheapest lot 41 617.05 · lots 4
on CSFloat: from 36 211.67 ₸listings: 4
on CS.Money: ~ 29 226.47 ₸
on Lis-Skins: from 43 789.91 ₸listings: 3
float markup by input
how many times more the lots with the needed float cost
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred) × 289% of the wear range fits×1.0598 000.50 → 103 067.12 ₸
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Battle-Scarred) × 389% of the wear range fits×1.04108 223.50 → 112 996.16 ₸
The markup is taken from a check of Steam 25–26.09.2026 listings. It shows how many times the needed number of cheapest listings with a fitting float cost more than the cheapest listing of this wear. It depends on the width of the float window and on the number of items.
«No higher than» — is a guarantee. The limits are calculated together: take all items with the float at the upper bound and you get exactly the result shown. With a lower float the result will be better.
f′ — the same float, brought to 0–1 by the skin's own range. CSFloat counts the same way.
In a week, when the outcome can be sold
from outcome price history
In a bad week−150 520.76 ₸a worse week happens one time in ten
In a typical week−143 897.07 ₸historical median
If you repeat
10 000 simulations over the outcome odds
I already have items
Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy
Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Operation Riptide Collection and The Shadow Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.
Third collection
Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable
All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.
Similar
1 craft almost like this one
One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.
Craft 3408227
· The Shadow Collection + The Operation Riptide Collection · profit −143 028.31₸
· invest 206 224.00₸
no outcome pricemarketplace pricesells slowlyrare inputspricier variants exist
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Bright Water: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Bright Water: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Bright Water: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; ★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Bright Water: Well-Worn instead of Battle-Scarred; StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred): float at most 0.899999 instead of 0.937499; StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Battle-Scarred): float at most 0.899999 instead of 0.937499
How to read these numbers
Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.
The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.
Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.