The Shadow Collection + The Wildfire Collection

StatTrak™ Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Average profit −23 295.46₽

Invest 32 421.68₽

Average return 9 126.22₽

ROI −71.8%

Chance of profit 0%

With float: invest at least 71 383.37 ₽, profit at most −62 257.15 ₽

float premium: at least 38 333 ₽

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

The gain is understated: 1 outcome has no price, that is 6.2% of the chance

Check:

To calculator I have items

Buy on Sell on

How to build

≈2% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 1 шт., годных ≈0

×1

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Golden Coil

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1918

11 339.34 ₽

at 11 339.34

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) — 20 448.32 ₽ +9 108.98 ₽ per item · on the market 10 · buy 0.1500–0.1918

Steam

×3

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0845

13 525.44 ₽

at 4 508.48

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) — 53 906.79 ₽ +49 398.31 ₽ per item · on the market 11 · buy 0.0700–0.1321

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0127

7 556.90 ₽

at 7 556.90

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New) — 91 806.54 ₽ +84 249.64 ₽ per item · on the market 2 · buy 0.0000–0.0199

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 32 421.68 ₽ −23 295.46 (−71.8%)

What you get 26 outcomes

Profitable outcome 0%
Losing outcome 94%
Above the Steam cap 6%

Order

at a loss

best

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.009729

21 832.07 ₽ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.040405

18 703.16 ₽ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

9 275.34 ₽ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Stained

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

10 976.30 ₽ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

19 744.00 ₽ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

not on Steam: above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

6 798.99 ₽ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

14 516.98 ₽ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Night

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

12 649.28 ₽ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Scorched

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

7 982.13 ₽ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

6 286.13 ₽ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

8 798.75 ₽ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife

no wear

7 337.01 ₽ 6.15%

rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.009729

13 576.17 ₽ 1.54%

rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.040405

14 114.34 ₽ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Blue Steel

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

8 038.21 ₽ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Stained

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

5 627.84 ₽ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Case Hardened

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

12 063.70 ₽ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Forest DDPAT

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

5 944.66 ₽ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Boreal Forest

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

4 199.88 ₽ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Crimson Web

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

9 501.77 ₽ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Night

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

7 165.36 ₽ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Scorched

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

5 345.72 ₽ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Safari Mesh

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

4 647.26 ₽ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Urban Masked

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

4 390.70 ₽ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers

no wear

7 968.82 ₽ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

float markup by input how many times more the lots with the needed float cost

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Field-Tested) × 1 18% of the wear range fits at least ×2.16 11 339.34 → 24 492.97 ₽

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Minimal Wear) × 3 18% of the wear range fits at least ×2.26 13 525.44 → 30 567.49 ₽

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New) × 1 18% of the wear range fits at least ×2.16 7 556.90 → 16 322.90 ₽

The markup is taken from a check of Steam 25–26.09.2026 listings. It shows how many times the needed number of cheapest listings with a fitting float cost more than the cheapest listing of this wear. It depends on the width of the float window and on the number of items.

Average float of the set

average normalized 0.121621522

outcomes come out up to 0.009729, 0.040405, 0.121621, 0.121621, 0.121621, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.000000, 0.009729, 0.040405, 0.121621, 0.121621, 0.121621, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.000000

How to read float

«No higher than» — is a guarantee. The limits are calculated together: take all items with the float at the upper bound and you get exactly the result shown. With a lower float the result will be better.

f′ — the same float, brought to 0–1 by the skin's own range. CSFloat counts the same way.

I already have items

No other variants in this recount

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −24 303.99 ₽ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week −23 440.52 ₽ historical median

6% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Shadow Collection and The Wildfire Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 1 craft almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3408932 · The Wildfire Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit −23 295.46₽ · invest 32 421.68₽
no outcome price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Shadow Collection + The Wildfire Collection

How to build i Ways to build 1 way: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 26 outcomes

More

How to build