The Gamma Collection

StatTrak™ Restricted → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 10

Average profit −15 970.82₴

Invest 38 051.97₴

Average return 22 081.15₴

ROI −42.0%

Chance of profit 3%

From the outcome −24 552.40 if you put everything into the next contract without selling

Selling intermediates +8 581.58 money arrives in 7 days; buy the replacement right away

With float: invest at least 42 756.58 ₴, profit at most −20 675.43 ₴

float premium: at least 2 421 ₴

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 10.0% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat / Market.CSGO: without them the profit is −20 963.80 ₴

Check:

What to buy

89% of lots fit: на цепочку не хватает: нужно 500 шт., годных ≈35

×500

StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Reboot

Battle-Scarred

buy 0.4500–0.8999

38 051.97 ₴

at 76.10

Steam

500

buy

Restricted

50 contracts

Classified

5 contracts

Covert

1 contract

knife or gloves

Craft on only from StatTrak™ P2000 | Imperial Dragon (Battle-Scarred), StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Bloodsport (Well-Worn), sell the rest. Buy the missing ones at 536.22 ₴.

Craft on only from StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Battle-Scarred), StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred), sell the rest. Buy the missing ones at 4 966.54 ₴.

Set · 500 pcs 38 051.97 ₴ −15 970.82 (−42.0%)

Chain steps 30 outcomes

Restricted → Classified

50 contracts of 10 · 50 items drop

craft on

StatTrak™ P2000 | Imperial Dragon

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.566999

486.71 ₴ 33%

Steam

sell

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Desolate Space

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.899999

1 208.78 ₴ 33%

Steam

craft on

StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Bloodsport

Well-Worn

float up to 0.404999

389.07 ₴ 33%

Steam

Classified → Covert

5 contracts of 10 · 5 items drop

craft on

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.485999

4 193.90 ₴ 50%

Steam

craft on

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Mecha Industries

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.719999

4 935.21 ₴ 50%

Steam

Covert → a knife or gloves

1 contract of 5 · 1 item drops · this is the chain outcome

Profitable outcome 3%
Losing outcome 87%
Above the Steam cap 10%

Order

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.071999

23 707.50 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number 5 phases, price averaged

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Freehand

Well-Worn

float up to 0.431999

7 366.37 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Lore

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.584999

12 365.75 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals price cut rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Black Laminate

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.899999

8 406.34 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Autotronic

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.764999

9 719.96 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Bright Water

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

6 452.66 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.071999

19 561.02 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat price cut pricier variants exist lots by number 5 phases, price averaged

Steam

★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Freehand

Well-Worn

float up to 0.431999

not on Steam: above the cap 3.33%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Lore

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.584999

7 542.27 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Black Laminate

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.899999

5 319.93 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Autotronic

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.764999

8 465.60 ₴ 3.33%

rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Bright Water

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

5 574.51 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.071999

not on Steam: above the cap 3.33%

pricier variants exist lots by number 5 phases, price averaged

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Freehand

Well-Worn

float up to 0.431999

3 053.43 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals price cut rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Lore

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.584999

4 603.60 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Black Laminate

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.899999

2 775.14 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals price cut rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Autotronic

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.764999

4 702.02 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Bright Water

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

2 652.81 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals price cut rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

best

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Gamma Doppler

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.071999

76 124.68 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat price cut pricier variants exist lots by number 5 phases, price averaged

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Freehand

Well-Worn

float up to 0.431999

25 279.31 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Lore

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.584999

24 223.41 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Black Laminate

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.899999

30 951.22 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals price cut rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Autotronic

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.764999

40 372.28 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Bright Water

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

26 197.15 ₴ 3.33%

sell on Market.CSGO pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.071999

not on Steam: above the cap 3.33%

pricier variants exist lots by number 5 phases, price averaged

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Freehand

Well-Worn

float up to 0.431999

14 331.80 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals price cut rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Lore

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.584999

18 024.26 ₴ 3.33%

rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Black Laminate

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.899999

15 191.40 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals price cut rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Autotronic

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.764999

27 163.42 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Bright Water

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

16 997.69 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one Restricted → a knife or gloves

Variant 2 Mil-Spec → Restricted Variant 3 Restricted → Classified

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −17 150.40 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week −16 254.67 ₴ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

Similar 1 craft almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3409564 · The Gamma Collection · profit −16 020.26₴ · invest 38 051.97₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Bright Water: Battle-Scarred instead of Well-Worn; ★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Bright Water: Battle-Scarred instead of Well-Worn; ★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Bright Water: Battle-Scarred instead of Well-Worn; ★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Bright Water: Battle-Scarred instead of Well-Worn; ★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Bright Water: Battle-Scarred instead of Well-Worn; StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Reboot (Battle-Scarred): float at most 0.937499 instead of 0.899999

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Gamma Collection

What to buy i Ways to build 1 way: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

Restricted → Classified

Classified → Covert

Covert → a knife or gloves

More

What to buy