Here crafts are calculated at Steam prices: with fees, over all possible outcomes and with the needed float for every input.
Craft — ten items of one rarity are exchanged for one item of the next rarity from the same collections. Which one drops is decided by chance, but the odds and the float of the outcome are computed exactly.
Invest — how much the inputs cost at the cheapest lots. Returns — the average over all outcomes after the Steam 15% fee. Profit — their difference, on average over many crafts. Chance of profit — the share of outcomes that pay for the input on their own.
Buy float — the strictest wear requirement among the inputs: lots with a float above this number don’t fit. “Any lot” — no need to choose.
Before buying, open the craft and press «Check floats on Steam»: the site will look at real listings and recalculate the profit.
Crafts calculated in total: 49 308.
Profitable37 069craftsof 40 591 in the recalculation
The summary covers all crafts of the recalculation, risk-labelled ones included: 40 591.Shown in the list below: 316.Hidden:“profit on prices without sales” — 20 913,
“outcome above the Steam cap” — 3 648.
A craft can carry several labels.Your own conditions apply too.
Craft ROI all crafts of the recalculation: how many in each band
profit only from resalesells slowly100% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.
P90 | Facility Negative (Factory New): buy 0.0000–0.0075 (≈2% of this wear's listings); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): buy 0.0000–0.0075 (≈2% of this wear's listings)
Stays in profit even if the week before the sale turns out bad: only one week in ten is worse.
MAG-7 | Core Breach (Field-Tested): buy 0.1500–0.1699 (0% of this wear's listings); M4A1-S | Flashback (Field-Tested): buy 0.1500–0.1699 (1% of this wear's listings); Nova | Gila (Factory New): buy 0.0000–0.0060 (1% of this wear's listings)
Stays in profit even if the week before the sale turns out bad: only one week in ten is worse.
AUG | Random Access (Minimal Wear): buy 0.0700–0.0741 (under 1% of this wear's listings); Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Minimal Wear): buy 0.0700–0.0741 (under 1% of this wear's listings); Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Factory New): buy 0.0000–0.0036 (≈1% of this wear's listings)
Stays in profit even if the week before the sale turns out bad: only one week in ten is worse.
MAG-7 | Core Breach (Field-Tested): buy 0.1500–0.1659 (0% of this wear's listings); Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Field-Tested): buy 0.1500–0.1659 (under 1% of this wear's listings); Tec-9 | Whiteout (Field-Tested): buy 0.1500–0.1659 (79% of this wear's listings)
Stays in profit even if the week before the sale turns out bad: only one week in ten is worse.
MAG-7 | Core Breach (Field-Tested): buy 0.1500–0.1683 (0% of this wear's listings); MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Field-Tested): buy 0.1500–0.1683 (under 1% of this wear's listings); MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear): buy 0.0700–0.0763 (0% of this wear's listings)
Stays in profit even if the week before the sale turns out bad: only one week in ten is worse.
rare inputspricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
MAG-7 | Core Breach (Field-Tested): buy 0.1500–0.1635 (0% of this wear's listings); P90 | Randy Rush (Minimal Wear): buy 0.0700–0.0747 (under 1% of this wear's listings); P90 | Randy Rush (Factory New): buy 0.0000–0.0041 (≈1% of this wear's listings)
MAG-7 | Core Breach (Field-Tested): buy 0.1500–0.1692 (0% of this wear's listings); PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod (Field-Tested): buy 0.1500–0.1692 (under 1% of this wear's listings); PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod (Minimal Wear): buy 0.0700–0.0767 (under 1% of this wear's listings)
profit only from resalesells slowly100% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.
rare inputspricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.