Here crafts are calculated at Steam prices: with fees, over all possible outcomes and with the needed float for every input.
Craft — ten items of one rarity are exchanged for one item of the next rarity from the same collections. Which one drops is decided by chance, but the odds and the float of the outcome are computed exactly.
Invest — how much the inputs cost at the cheapest lots. Returns — the average over all outcomes after the Steam 15% fee. Profit — their difference, on average over many crafts. Chance of profit — the share of outcomes that pay for the input on their own.
Buy float — the strictest wear requirement among the inputs: lots with a float above this number don’t fit. “Any lot” — no need to choose.
Before buying, open the craft and press «Check floats on Steam»: the site will look at real listings and recalculate the profit.
Crafts calculated in total: 50 183.
Profitable35 929craftsof 39 737 in the recalculation
The summary covers all crafts of the recalculation, risk-labelled ones included: 39 737.Of them the site shows the best: 15 000.Shown in the list below: 252.Hidden:“profit on prices without sales” — 21 478,
“outcome above the Steam cap” — 3 934.
A craft can carry several labels.Your own conditions apply too.
Craft ROI all crafts of the recalculation: how many in each band
SCAR-20 | Assault (Factory New): buy 0.0000–0.0043 (≈1% of this wear's listings); Galil AR | Black Sand (Field-Tested): buy 0.1500–0.1643 (under 1% of this wear's listings)
Stays in profit even if the week before the sale turns out bad: only one week in ten is worse.
SCAR-20 | Assault (Factory New): buy 0.0000–0.0058 (≈2% of this wear's listings); AUG | Signal Scanner (Minimal Wear): buy 0.0700–0.0767 (under 1% of this wear's listings)
Stays in profit even if the week before the sale turns out bad: only one week in ten is worse.
SCAR-20 | Assault (Factory New): buy 0.0000–0.0038 (≈1% of this wear's listings); P90 | Off World (Minimal Wear): buy 0.0700–0.0743 (under 1% of this wear's listings); MAC-10 | Whitefish (Minimal Wear): buy 0.0700–0.0743 (under 1% of this wear's listings)
Stays in profit even if the week before the sale turns out bad: only one week in ten is worse.
P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear): buy 0.0700–0.0747 (under 1% of this wear's listings); P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New): buy 0.0000–0.0041 (≈1% of this wear's listings); Tec-9 | Flash Out (Minimal Wear): buy 0.0700–0.0747 (under 1% of this wear's listings)
Stays in profit even if the week before the sale turns out bad: only one week in ten is worse.
sells slowlyrare inputsThe rarest input sells 18 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.pricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
MAC-10 | Classic Crate (Minimal Wear): buy 0.0700–0.0768 (under 1% of this wear's listings); Nova | Yorkshire (Minimal Wear): buy 0.0700–0.0768 (under 1% of this wear's listings); P250 | Small Game (Factory New): buy 0.0000–0.0059 (≈2% of this wear's listings)
Stays in profit even if the week before the sale turns out bad: only one week in ten is worse.
SCAR-20 | Assault (Factory New): buy 0.0000–0.0037 (≈1% of this wear's listings); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Minimal Wear): buy 0.0700–0.0743 (under 1% of this wear's listings); UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Minimal Wear): buy 0.0700–0.0743 (under 1% of this wear's listings)
Stays in profit even if the week before the sale turns out bad: only one week in ten is worse.
sells slowlyrare inputsThe rarest input sells 18 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.pricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.