Here crafts are calculated at Steam prices: with fees, over all possible outcomes and with the needed float for every input.
Craft — ten items of one rarity are exchanged for one item of the next rarity from the same collections. Which one drops is decided by chance, but the odds and the float of the outcome are computed exactly.
Invest — how much the inputs cost at the cheapest lots. Returns — the average over all outcomes after the Steam 15% fee. Profit — their difference, on average over many crafts. Chance of profit — the share of outcomes that pay for the input on their own.
Buy float — the strictest wear requirement among the inputs: lots with a float above this number don’t fit. “Any lot” — no need to choose.
Before buying, open the craft and press «Check floats on Steam»: the site will look at real listings and recalculate the profit.
Crafts calculated in total: 48 635.
Profitable36 412craftsof 39 940 in the recalculation
The summary covers all crafts of the recalculation, risk-labelled ones included: 39 940.Shown in the list below: 455.Hidden:“profit on prices without sales” — 21 190,
“outcome above the Steam cap” — 3 654.
A craft can carry several labels.Your own conditions apply too.
Craft ROI all crafts of the recalculation: how many in each band
marketplace pricesells slowly55% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.
marketplace pricesells slowly55% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Grand Prix (Field-Tested): buy 0.2500–0.2551 (2% of this wear's listings); StatTrak™ P2000 | Handgun (Field-Tested): buy 0.1500–0.1618 (0% of this wear's listings)
Stays in profit even if the week before the sale turns out bad: only one week in ten is worse.
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Grand Prix (Field-Tested): buy 0.2500–0.2555 (2% of this wear's listings); StatTrak™ P2000 | Handgun (Field-Tested): buy 0.1500–0.1628 (0% of this wear's listings)
Stays in profit even if the week before the sale turns out bad: only one week in ten is worse.
MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New): buy 0.0000–0.0039 (0% of this wear's listings); Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested): buy 0.1500–0.1630 (under 1% of this wear's listings); AWP | PAW (Factory New): buy 0.0000–0.0039 (2% of this wear's listings)
Stays in profit even if the week before the sale turns out bad: only one week in ten is worse.
UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New): buy 0.0000–0.0078 (≈2% of this wear's listings); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): buy 0.0000–0.0078 (≈2% of this wear's listings)
Stays in profit even if the week before the sale turns out bad: only one week in ten is worse.
SG 553 | Cyrex (Field-Tested): buy 0.1500–0.1639 (under 1% of this wear's listings); AUG | Syd Mead (Minimal Wear): buy 0.0700–0.0748 (0% of this wear's listings); Tec-9 | Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear): buy 0.0700–0.0748 (0% of this wear's listings)
Stays in profit even if the week before the sale turns out bad: only one week in ten is worse.
MAG-7 | Heat (Field-Tested): buy 0.1500–0.1620 (under 1% of this wear's listings); UMP-45 | Grand Prix (Field-Tested): buy 0.2500–0.2552 (1% of this wear's listings); Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested): buy 0.1500–0.1620 (under 1% of this wear's listings)
Stays in profit even if the week before the sale turns out bad: only one week in ten is worse.
MAG-7 | Heat (Field-Tested): buy 0.1500–0.1631 (under 1% of this wear's listings); UMP-45 | Grand Prix (Field-Tested): buy 0.2500–0.2557 (1% of this wear's listings); Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested): buy 0.1500–0.1631 (under 1% of this wear's listings)
Stays in profit even if the week before the sale turns out bad: only one week in ten is worse.
profit only from resalesells slowly67% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 8 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.
Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested): buy 0.1500–0.1623 (under 1% of this wear's listings); Dual Berettas | Royal Consorts (Field-Tested): buy 0.1500–0.1623 (under 1% of this wear's listings); Nova | Gila (Factory New): buy 0.0000–0.0037 (1% of this wear's listings)
Stays in profit even if the week before the sale turns out bad: only one week in ten is worse.
UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New): buy 0.0000–0.0046 (≈1% of this wear's listings); Galil AR | Black Sand (Field-Tested): buy 0.1500–0.1651 (under 1% of this wear's listings)
Stays in profit even if the week before the sale turns out bad: only one week in ten is worse.
marketplace pricesells slowly55% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.
marketplace pricesells slowly55% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.
profit only from resalesells slowly67% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 8 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.
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Steam
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Jaguar (Factory New)
