Here crafts are calculated at Steam prices: with fees, over all possible outcomes and with the needed float for every input.
Craft — ten items of one rarity are exchanged for one item of the next rarity from the same collections. Which one drops is decided by chance, but the odds and the float of the outcome are computed exactly.
Invest — how much the inputs cost at the cheapest lots. Returns — the average over all outcomes after the Steam 15% fee. Profit — their difference, on average over many crafts. Chance of profit — the share of outcomes that pay for the input on their own.
Buy float — the strictest wear requirement among the inputs: lots with a float above this number don’t fit. “Any lot” — no need to choose.
Before buying, open the craft and press «Check floats on Steam»: the site will look at real listings and recalculate the profit.
Crafts calculated in total: 46 914.
Profitable35 334craftsof 38 904 in the recalculation
The summary covers all crafts of the recalculation, risk-labelled ones included: 38 904.Of them the site shows the best: 15 000.Shown in the list below: 10 909.Hidden:“profit on prices without sales” — 19 199,
“profit only from resale” — 265,
“outcome above the Steam cap” — 3 656.
A craft can carry several labels.
Craft ROI all crafts of the recalculation: how many in each band
Purchase at the cheapest listing of the wear — in practice it will cost more: listings with the needed float are pricier, and the profit below will be smaller or turn into a loss. Count by float
CZ75-Auto | Tigris (Minimal Wear): buy 0.0700–0.0753 (under 1% of this wear's listings); Nova | Koi (Factory New): buy 0.0000–0.0046 (3% of this wear's listings); Dual Berettas | Royal Consorts (Field-Tested): buy 0.1500–0.1652 (under 1% of this wear's listings)
Stays in profit even if the week before the sale turns out bad: only one week in ten is worse.
P250 | Muertos (Minimal Wear): buy 0.0700–0.0742 (2% of this wear's listings); Zeus x27 | Olympus (Minimal Wear): buy 0.0700–0.0742 (3% of this wear's listings); Zeus x27 | Olympus (Factory New): buy 0.0000–0.0037 (≈1% of this wear's listings)
Stays in profit even if the week before the sale turns out bad: only one week in ten is worse.
MP9 | Airlock (Minimal Wear): buy 0.0700–0.0752 (under 1% of this wear's listings); Zeus x27 | Olympus (Minimal Wear): buy 0.0700–0.0752 (3% of this wear's listings); Zeus x27 | Olympus (Factory New): buy 0.0000–0.0045 (≈1% of this wear's listings)
Stays in profit even if the week before the sale turns out bad: only one week in ten is worse.
MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Field-Tested): buy 0.1500–0.1637 (under 1% of this wear's listings); Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested): buy 0.1500–0.1637 (under 1% of this wear's listings)
Stays in profit even if the week before the sale turns out bad: only one week in ten is worse.
marketplace pricesells slowly45% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.
Desert Eagle | Pilot (Battle-Scarred): buy 0.4500–0.4848; Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Field-Tested): buy 0.1500–0.1645 (0% of this wear's listings); MAC-10 | Derailment (Factory New): buy 0.0000–0.0044 (4% of this wear's listings)
Nova | Gila (Factory New): buy 0.0000–0.0043 (1% of this wear's listings); Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Field-Tested): buy 0.1500–0.1643 (under 1% of this wear's listings); AUG | Eye of Zapems (Minimal Wear): buy 0.0700–0.0750 (under 1% of this wear's listings)
Stays in profit even if the week before the sale turns out bad: only one week in ten is worse.
rare inputspricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
Dual Berettas | Royal Consorts (Field-Tested): buy 0.1500–0.1707 (under 1% of this wear's listings); Nova | Gila (Factory New): buy 0.0000–0.0063 (1% of this wear's listings); P90 | Blind Spot (Factory New): buy 0.0000–0.0063 (4% of this wear's listings)
Stays in profit even if the week before the sale turns out bad: only one week in ten is worse.
Souvenir P90 | ScaraB Rush (Field-Tested): buy 0.1500–0.1648 (under 1% of this wear's listings); Nova | Ocular (Minimal Wear): buy 0.0700–0.0751 (under 1% of this wear's listings); Nova | Ocular (Factory New): buy 0.0000–0.0045 (≈1% of this wear's listings)
Stays in profit even if the week before the sale turns out bad: only one week in ten is worse.
Galil AR | Black Sand (Field-Tested): buy 0.1500–0.1618 (under 1% of this wear's listings); CZ75-Auto | Polymer (Minimal Wear): buy 0.0700–0.0741 (under 1% of this wear's listings); UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): buy 0.0700–0.0741 (under 1% of this wear's listings)
Stays in profit even if the week before the sale turns out bad: only one week in ten is worse.
Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested): buy 0.1500–0.1642 (under 1% of this wear's listings); P90 | Randy Rush (Field-Tested): buy 0.1500–0.1642 (under 1% of this wear's listings); P90 | Randy Rush (Minimal Wear): buy 0.0700–0.0749 (under 1% of this wear's listings)
Stays in profit even if the week before the sale turns out bad: only one week in ten is worse.
marketplace pricesells slowly45% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.
rare inputspricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
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Steam
M4A4 | Falak (Factory New)
