Here crafts are calculated at Steam prices: with fees, over all possible outcomes and with the needed float for every input.
Craft — ten items of one rarity are exchanged for one item of the next rarity from the same collections. Which one drops is decided by chance, but the odds and the float of the outcome are computed exactly.
Invest — how much the inputs cost at the cheapest lots. Returns — the average over all outcomes after the Steam 15% fee. Profit — their difference, on average over many crafts. Chance of profit — the share of outcomes that pay for the input on their own.
Buy float — the strictest wear requirement among the inputs: lots with a float above this number don’t fit. “Any lot” — no need to choose.
Before buying, open the craft and press «Check floats on Steam»: the site will look at real listings and recalculate the profit.
Crafts calculated in total: 48 505.
Profitable36 315craftsof 39 917 in the recalculation
The summary covers all crafts of the recalculation, risk-labelled ones included: 39 917.Of them the site shows the best: 15 000.Shown in the list below: 11 272.Hidden:“profit on prices without sales” — 21 234,
“profit only from resale” — 258,
“outcome above the Steam cap” — 3 652.
A craft can carry several labels.
Craft ROI all crafts of the recalculation: how many in each band
Purchase at the cheapest listing of the wear — in practice it will cost more: listings with the needed float are pricier, and the profit below will be smaller or turn into a loss. Count by float
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Field-Tested): buy 0.1500–0.1645 (under 1% of this wear's listings); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Minimal Wear): buy 0.0700–0.0794 (under 1% of this wear's listings); Sawed-Off | Amber Fade (Factory New): buy 0.0000–0.0041 (≈1% of this wear's listings)
SSG 08 | Hand Brake (Field-Tested): buy 0.1500–0.1660 (under 1% of this wear's listings); Sawed-Off | Brake Light (Factory New): buy 0.0000–0.0026 (under 1% of this wear's listings); P90 | Off World (Minimal Wear): buy 0.0700–0.0861 (≈3% of this wear's listings)
G3SG1 | Green Apple (Minimal Wear): buy 0.0700–0.0789 (under 1% of this wear's listings); UMP-45 | Carbon Fiber (Factory New): buy 0.0000–0.0044 (≈1% of this wear's listings); MP7 | Astrolabe (Field-Tested): buy 0.1500–0.1763 (under 1% of this wear's listings)
Stays in profit even if the week before the sale turns out bad: only one week in ten is worse.
SCAR-20 | Assault (Factory New): buy 0.0000–0.0054 (≈1% of this wear's listings); Galil AR | Black Sand (Well-Worn): buy 0.3800–0.3854; Galil AR | Black Sand (Field-Tested): buy 0.1500–0.1678 (under 1% of this wear's listings)
UMP-45 | Labyrinth (Factory New): buy 0.0000–0.0050 (≈1% of this wear's listings); P2000 | Red Wing (Field-Tested): buy 0.1500–0.1664 (under 1% of this wear's listings); P2000 | Red Wing (Minimal Wear): buy 0.0700–0.0792 (under 1% of this wear's listings)
Stays in profit even if the week before the sale turns out bad: only one week in ten is worse.
Galil AR | Black Sand (Well-Worn): buy 0.3800–0.3852; Galil AR | Black Sand (Field-Tested): buy 0.1500–0.1672 (under 1% of this wear's listings); Sawed-Off | Yorick (Minimal Wear): buy 0.0700–0.0760 (under 1% of this wear's listings); SCAR-20 | Outbreak (Factory New): buy 0.0000–0.0052 (≈1% of this wear's listings)
UMP-45 | Grand Prix (Field-Tested): buy 0.2500–0.2566 (1% of this wear's listings); P2000 | Handgun (Well-Worn): buy 0.3800–0.3846; Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested): buy 0.1500–0.1652 (under 1% of this wear's listings)
G3SG1 | Green Apple (Minimal Wear): buy 0.0700–0.0799 (under 1% of this wear's listings); UMP-45 | Carbon Fiber (Factory New): buy 0.0000–0.0051 (≈1% of this wear's listings)
Stays in profit even if the week before the sale turns out bad: only one week in ten is worse.
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Pole Position (Field-Tested): buy 0.1500–0.1624 (under 1% of this wear's listings); StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Grand Prix (Field-Tested): buy 0.2500–0.2554 (3% of this wear's listings); StatTrak™ P2000 | Handgun (Battle-Scarred): buy 0.4500–0.4797
MP9 | Black Sand (Minimal Wear): buy 0.0700–0.0815 (≈1% of this wear's listings); Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested): buy 0.1500–0.1789 (≈1% of this wear's listings)
Stays in profit even if the week before the sale turns out bad: only one week in ten is worse.
Souvenir R8 Revolver | Night (Field-Tested): buy 0.1500–0.1604 (under 1% of this wear's listings); Souvenir Nova | Army Sheen (Factory New): buy 0.0000–0.0031 (≈1% of this wear's listings); Souvenir M249 | Submerged (Minimal Wear): buy 0.0700–0.0815 (≈1% of this wear's listings)
Stays in profit even if the week before the sale turns out bad: only one week in ten is worse.
P90 | Nostalgia (Field-Tested): buy 0.1500–0.1669 (under 1% of this wear's listings); AUG | Death by Puppy (Minimal Wear): buy 0.0700–0.0758 (5% of this wear's listings); R8 Revolver | Skull Crusher (Battle-Scarred): buy 0.4500–0.4757; XM1014 | Incinegator (Field-Tested): buy 0.1500–0.1669 (0% of this wear's listings)
→
Steam
Galil AR | Amber Fade (Factory New)
