Here crafts are calculated at Steam prices: with fees, over all possible outcomes and with the needed float for every input.
Craft — ten items of one rarity are exchanged for one item of the next rarity from the same collections. Which one drops is decided by chance, but the odds and the float of the outcome are computed exactly.
Invest — how much the inputs cost at the cheapest lots. Returns — the average over all outcomes after the Steam 15% fee. Profit — their difference, on average over many crafts. Chance of profit — the share of outcomes that pay for the input on their own.
Buy float — the strictest wear requirement among the inputs: lots with a float above this number don’t fit. “Any lot” — no need to choose.
Before buying, open the craft and press «Check floats on Steam»: the site will look at real listings and recalculate the profit.
The summary covers all crafts of the recalculation, risk-labelled ones included: 39 248.Of them the site shows the best: 15 000.Shown in the list below: 162.Hidden:“profit only from resale” — 261,
“outcome above the Steam cap” — 4 015.
A craft can carry several labels.Your own conditions apply too.
Craft ROI all crafts of the recalculation: how many in each band
Souvenir P90 | Verdant Growth (Minimal Wear): buy 0.0700–0.1183 (≈22% of this wear's listings); Souvenir FAMAS | CaliCamo (Minimal Wear): buy 0.0700–0.1183 (≈22% of this wear's listings); Nova | Turquoise Pour (Factory New): buy 0.0000–0.0423 (≈8% of this wear's listings)
Stays in profit even if the week before the sale turns out bad: only one week in ten is worse.
Souvenir P90 | Verdant Growth (Minimal Wear): buy 0.0700–0.1186 (≈22% of this wear's listings); CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm (Minimal Wear): buy 0.0700–0.1186 (≈22% of this wear's listings); Nova | Turquoise Pour (Factory New): buy 0.0000–0.0425 (≈8% of this wear's listings)
Stays in profit even if the week before the sale turns out bad: only one week in ten is worse.
Souvenir PP-Bizon | Anolis (Factory New): buy 0.0000–0.0041 (≈1% of this wear's listings); MP7 | Army Recon (Minimal Wear): buy 0.0700–0.0747 (under 1% of this wear's listings); Tec-9 | Army Mesh (Factory New): buy 0.0000–0.0041 (≈1% of this wear's listings)
Stays in profit even if the week before the sale turns out bad: only one week in ten is worse.
Souvenir PP-Bizon | Anolis (Field-Tested): buy 0.1500–0.1623 (under 1% of this wear's listings); Souvenir SSG 08 | Prey (Minimal Wear): buy 0.0700–0.0742 (under 1% of this wear's listings); AUG | Commando Company (Minimal Wear): buy 0.0700–0.0742 (under 1% of this wear's listings); G3SG1 | Green Cell (Factory New): buy 0.0000–0.0037 (≈1% of this wear's listings)