Here crafts are calculated at Steam prices: with fees, over all possible outcomes and with the needed float for every input.
Craft — ten items of one rarity are exchanged for one item of the next rarity from the same collections. Which one drops is decided by chance, but the odds and the float of the outcome are computed exactly.
Invest — how much the inputs cost at the cheapest lots. Returns — the average over all outcomes after the Steam 15% fee. Profit — their difference, on average over many crafts. Chance of profit — the share of outcomes that pay for the input on their own.
Buy float — the strictest wear requirement among the inputs: lots with a float above this number don’t fit. “Any lot” — no need to choose.
Before buying, open the craft and press «Check floats on Steam»: the site will look at real listings and recalculate the profit.
Crafts calculated in total: 48 635.
Profitable36 412craftsof 39 940 in the recalculation
The summary covers all crafts of the recalculation, risk-labelled ones included: 39 940.Shown in the list below: 393.Hidden:“profit on prices without sales” — 21 190,
“profit only from resale” — 281,
“outcome above the Steam cap” — 3 654.
A craft can carry several labels.Your own conditions apply too.
Craft ROI all crafts of the recalculation: how many in each band
P90 | Nostalgia (Field-Tested): buy 0.1500–0.1623 (under 1% of this wear's listings); Five-SeveN | Monkey Business (Field-Tested): buy 0.1500–0.1623 (under 1% of this wear's listings)
sells slowlyrare inputsThe rarest input sells 2 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.pricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
SCAR-20 | Assault (Factory New): buy 0.0000–0.0058 (≈2% of this wear's listings); AUG | Signal Scanner (Minimal Wear): buy 0.0700–0.0767 (under 1% of this wear's listings)
Stays in profit even if the week before the sale turns out bad: only one week in ten is worse.
AUG | Death by Puppy (Field-Tested): buy 0.1500–0.1630 (under 1% of this wear's listings); UMP-45 | Wild Child (Field-Tested): buy 0.1500–0.1630 (under 1% of this wear's listings)
Stays in profit even if the week before the sale turns out bad: only one week in ten is worse.
AUG | Death by Puppy (Minimal Wear): buy 0.0700–0.0772 (6% of this wear's listings); XM1014 | Entombed (Minimal Wear): buy 0.0700–0.0772 (under 1% of this wear's listings); XM1014 | Entombed (Factory New): buy 0.0000–0.0063 (1% of this wear's listings)
SCAR-20 | Assault (Factory New): buy 0.0000–0.0038 (≈1% of this wear's listings); P90 | Off World (Minimal Wear): buy 0.0700–0.0743 (under 1% of this wear's listings); MAC-10 | Whitefish (Minimal Wear): buy 0.0700–0.0743 (under 1% of this wear's listings)
Stays in profit even if the week before the sale turns out bad: only one week in ten is worse.
MP5-SD | Agent (Minimal Wear): buy 0.0700–0.0742 (under 1% of this wear's listings); P90 | Randy Rush (Minimal Wear): buy 0.0700–0.0742 (under 1% of this wear's listings); P90 | Randy Rush (Factory New): buy 0.0000–0.0037 (≈1% of this wear's listings)
AUG | Death by Puppy (Minimal Wear): buy 0.0700–0.0761 (6% of this wear's listings); P250 | Kintsugi (Battle-Scarred): buy 0.4500–0.4926; P90 | Deathgaze (Field-Tested): buy 0.1500–0.1678 (under 1% of this wear's listings)
M249 | Aztec (Minimal Wear): buy 0.0700–0.0751 (under 1% of this wear's listings); PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod (Field-Tested): buy 0.1500–0.1646 (under 1% of this wear's listings); PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod (Minimal Wear): buy 0.0700–0.0751 (under 1% of this wear's listings)
Stays in profit even if the week before the sale turns out bad: only one week in ten is worse.
rare inputspricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
marketplace pricesells slowly45% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 1 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.
P90 | Nostalgia (Minimal Wear): buy 0.0700–0.0755 (0% of this wear's listings); Zeus x27 | Dragon Snore (Field-Tested): buy 0.1500–0.1659 (2% of this wear's listings)
AUG | Death by Puppy (Field-Tested): buy 0.1500–0.1617 (under 1% of this wear's listings); FAMAS | Djinn (Battle-Scarred): buy 0.4500–0.4781; Five-SeveN | Monkey Business (Field-Tested): buy 0.1500–0.1617 (under 1% of this wear's listings)
sells slowlyrare inputsThe rarest input sells 2 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.pricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
rare inputspricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
marketplace pricesells slowly45% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 1 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.