Here crafts are calculated at Steam prices: with fees, over all possible outcomes and with the needed float for every input.
Craft — ten items of one rarity are exchanged for one item of the next rarity from the same collections. Which one drops is decided by chance, but the odds and the float of the outcome are computed exactly.
Invest — how much the inputs cost at the cheapest lots. Returns — the average over all outcomes after the Steam 15% fee. Profit — their difference, on average over many crafts. Chance of profit — the share of outcomes that pay for the input on their own.
Buy float — the strictest wear requirement among the inputs: lots with a float above this number don’t fit. “Any lot” — no need to choose.
Before buying, open the craft and press «Check floats on Steam»: the site will look at real listings and recalculate the profit.
Crafts calculated in total: 49 290.
Profitable37 694craftsof 41 158 in the recalculation
The summary covers all crafts of the recalculation, risk-labelled ones included: 41 158.Of them the site shows the best: 15 000.Shown in the list below: 612.Hidden:“profit only from resale” — 284,
“outcome above the Steam cap” — 3 550.
A craft can carry several labels.Your own conditions apply too.
Craft ROI all crafts of the recalculation: how many in each band
Purchase at the cheapest listing of the wear — in practice it will cost more: listings with the needed float are pricier, and the profit below will be smaller or turn into a loss. Count by float
marketplace pricesells slowly85% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 1 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.
marketplace pricesells slowly80% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.
marketplace pricesells slowly45% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.
Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested): buy 0.1500–0.1634 (under 1% of this wear's listings); G3SG1 | High Seas (Minimal Wear): buy 0.0700–0.0746 (under 1% of this wear's listings); MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Field-Tested): buy 0.2100–0.2199 (under 1% of this wear's listings)
Stays in profit even if the week before the sale turns out bad: only one week in ten is worse.
marketplace pricesells slowly85% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 1 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.
marketplace pricesells slowly80% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.
marketplace pricesells slowly45% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.
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Steam
M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Factory New)
