Here crafts are calculated at Steam prices: with fees, over all possible outcomes and with the needed float for every input.
Craft — ten items of one rarity are exchanged for one item of the next rarity from the same collections. Which one drops is decided by chance, but the odds and the float of the outcome are computed exactly.
Invest — how much the inputs cost at the cheapest lots. Returns — the average over all outcomes after the Steam 15% fee. Profit — their difference, on average over many crafts. Chance of profit — the share of outcomes that pay for the input on their own.
Buy float — the strictest wear requirement among the inputs: lots with a float above this number don’t fit. “Any lot” — no need to choose.
Before buying, open the craft and press «Check floats on Steam»: the site will look at real listings and recalculate the profit.
Crafts calculated in total: 48 148.
Profitable36 375craftsof 40 021 in the recalculation
The summary covers all crafts of the recalculation, risk-labelled ones included: 40 021.Of them the site shows the best: 15 000.Shown in the list below: 11 003.Hidden:“profit on prices without sales” — 21 085,
“profit only from resale” — 268,
“outcome above the Steam cap” — 3 695.
A craft can carry several labels.
Craft ROI all crafts of the recalculation: how many in each band
Purchase at the cheapest listing of the wear — in practice it will cost more: listings with the needed float are pricier, and the profit below will be smaller or turn into a loss. Count by float
Nova | Wild Six (Minimal Wear): buy 0.0700–0.0799 (under 1% of this wear's listings); Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Field-Tested): buy 0.1500–0.1701 (under 1% of this wear's listings); Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Minimal Wear): buy 0.0700–0.0799 (under 1% of this wear's listings)
SG 553 | Danger Close (Minimal Wear): buy 0.0700–0.0741 (under 1% of this wear's listings); Tec-9 | Fubar (Field-Tested): buy 0.1500–0.1618 (under 1% of this wear's listings); UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Well-Worn): buy 0.3800–0.3835
Galil AR | Black Sand (Well-Worn): buy 0.3800–0.3835; Galil AR | Black Sand (Field-Tested): buy 0.1500–0.1616 (under 1% of this wear's listings); UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested): buy 0.1500–0.1616 (under 1% of this wear's listings); UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear): buy 0.0700–0.0740 (under 1% of this wear's listings)
StatTrak™ P90 | Wave Breaker (Battle-Scarred): buy 0.4500–0.4936 (11% of this wear's listings); StatTrak™ Galil AR | Control (Field-Tested): buy 0.1500–0.1799 (≈1% of this wear's listings); StatTrak™ SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Field-Tested): buy 0.1500–0.1756 (1% of this wear's listings)
AUG | Commando Company (Minimal Wear): buy 0.0700–0.0752 (under 1% of this wear's listings); G3SG1 | Green Cell (Factory New): buy 0.0000–0.0045 (≈1% of this wear's listings); M249 | Impact Drill (Battle-Scarred): buy 0.4500–0.4858
Souvenir Glock-18 | Red Tire (Field-Tested): buy 0.1500–0.1782 (≈1% of this wear's listings); Negev | Wall Bang (Field-Tested): buy 0.1500–0.1656 (under 1% of this wear's listings); MP5-SD | Neon Squeezer (Field-Tested): buy 0.2000–0.2122 (under 1% of this wear's listings)
Stays in profit even if the week before the sale turns out bad: only one week in ten is worse.
marketplace pricesells slowly90% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.
rare inputspricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Field-Tested): buy 0.1500–0.1601 (1% of this wear's listings); StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Field-Tested): buy 0.1500–0.1778 (≈1% of this wear's listings); StatTrak™ P90 | Wave Breaker (Battle-Scarred): buy 0.4500–0.4729 (6% of this wear's listings); StatTrak™ Galil AR | Control (Field-Tested): buy 0.1500–0.1756 (under 1% of this wear's listings)
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Grand Prix (Field-Tested): buy 0.2500–0.2548 (3% of this wear's listings); StatTrak™ P90 | Wave Breaker (Battle-Scarred): buy 0.4500–0.4741 (7% of this wear's listings); StatTrak™ Galil AR | Control (Field-Tested): buy 0.1500–0.1843 (≈2% of this wear's listings)
marketplace pricesells slowly90% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.
rare inputspricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
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Steam
Galil AR | Tuxedo (Factory New)
