The second kind of contract: five Covert skins give a knife or gloves from the inputs’ collection. The float rule is the same, only the average is taken over five.
Covert can also be obtained by crafting. A chain from Classified needs 50 items, from Restricted — 500 (the “Steps” filter). Any other chain, even from Consumer, is calculated by the chain builder.
There are many outcomes: five knife models with thirteen finishes each. So look at the average over all outcomes; you cannot count on one particular knife.
Craft — ten items of one rarity are exchanged for one item of the next rarity from the same collections. Which one drops is decided by chance, but the odds and the float of the outcome are computed exactly.
Invest — how much the inputs cost at the cheapest lots. Returns — the average over all outcomes after the Steam 15% fee. Profit — their difference, on average over many crafts. Chance of profit — the share of outcomes that pay for the input on their own.
Buy float — the strictest wear requirement among the inputs: lots with a float above this number don’t fit. “Any lot” — no need to choose.
Before buying, open the craft and press «Check floats on Steam»: the site will look at real listings and recalculate the profit.
Crafts calculated in total: 47 054.
!
The gain is understated:7 877 of 8 188 crafts have an outcome above the Steam capThe gain here is understated.
Steam has a price ceiling, and expensive knives are not listed on the market at all. Such an outcome is counted at the cheapest listing on CSFloat or Market.CSGO minus their fee (the outcome says “sell on…”). Where there is no price there either, the outcome is counted as zero, so the true expected value can be higher than shown.
Profitable0craftsof 8 188 in the recalculation
Best profit—nothing profitable to assemble
Median ROI—half of the profitable crafts are above
The summary covers all crafts of the recalculation, risk-labelled ones included: 8 188.Of them the site shows the best: 5 000.Shown in the list below: 12.Your own conditions apply too.
Craft ROI all crafts of the recalculation: how many in each band
No profitable craft that can be assembled under these conditions: not enough market lots, or the profit rests on resale and no-deal prices. The full list is below.
sale unreliableno outcome priceOutcome above the Steam cap: no price, the gain is understatedmarketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.sells slowly90% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 1 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.pricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
→Steam★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear)
sale unreliableno outcome priceOutcome above the Steam cap: no price, the gain is understatedmarketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.sells slowly90% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 1 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.pricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
→Steam★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear)
sale unreliableno outcome priceOutcome above the Steam cap: no price, the gain is understatedmarketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.sells slowly84% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 1 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.pricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
→Steam★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Fade (Factory New)
sale unreliableno outcome priceOutcome above the Steam cap: no price, the gain is understatedmarketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.sells slowly84% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 1 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.pricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
→Steam★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Fade (Factory New)
sale unreliableno outcome priceOutcome above the Steam cap: no price, the gain is understatedmarketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.sells slowly83% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.цена ненадёжнаПервые пять годных лотов отличаются в разы: дешёвый может оказаться единственным.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.pricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
sale unreliableno outcome priceOutcome above the Steam cap: no price, the gain is understatedmarketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.sells slowly83% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.цена ненадёжнаПервые пять годных лотов отличаются в разы: дешёвый может оказаться единственным.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.pricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
sale unreliableno outcome priceOutcome above the Steam cap: no price, the gain is understatedmarketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.sells slowly86% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.pricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
sale unreliableno outcome priceOutcome above the Steam cap: no price, the gain is understatedmarketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.sells slowly84% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.pricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
→Steam★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear)
sale unreliableno outcome priceOutcome above the Steam cap: no price, the gain is understatedmarketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.sells slowly84% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.pricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
→Steam★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear)
sale unreliableno outcome priceOutcome above the Steam cap: no price, the gain is understatedmarketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.sells slowly85% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.pricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
sale unreliableno outcome priceOutcome above the Steam cap: no price, the gain is understatedmarketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.sells slowly83% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.pricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
sale unreliableno outcome priceOutcome above the Steam cap: no price, the gain is understatedmarketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.sells slowly83% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.pricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
sale unreliablemarketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.sells slowly90% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 1 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.pricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
sale unreliablemarketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.sells slowly90% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 1 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.pricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
sale unreliablemarketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.sells slowly84% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 1 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.pricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
sale unreliablemarketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.sells slowly84% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 1 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.pricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
sale unreliablemarketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.sells slowly83% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.цена ненадёжнаПервые пять годных лотов отличаются в разы: дешёвый может оказаться единственным.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.pricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
sale unreliablemarketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.sells slowly83% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.цена ненадёжнаПервые пять годных лотов отличаются в разы: дешёвый может оказаться единственным.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.pricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
sale unreliablemarketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.sells slowly86% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.pricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
sale unreliablemarketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.sells slowly84% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.pricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
sale unreliablemarketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.sells slowly84% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.pricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
sale unreliablemarketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.sells slowly85% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.pricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
sale unreliablemarketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.sells slowly83% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.pricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
sale unreliablemarketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.sells slowly83% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.pricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
→
Steam
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear)
