The second kind of contract: five Covert skins give a knife or gloves from the inputs’ collection. The float rule is the same, only the average is taken over five.
Covert can also be obtained by crafting. A chain from Classified needs 50 items, from Restricted — 500 (the “Steps” filter). Any other chain, even from Consumer, is calculated by the chain builder.
There are many outcomes: five knife models with thirteen finishes each. So look at the average over all outcomes; you cannot count on one particular knife.
Craft — ten items of one rarity are exchanged for one item of the next rarity from the same collections. Which one drops is decided by chance, but the odds and the float of the outcome are computed exactly.
Invest — how much the inputs cost at the cheapest lots. Returns — the average over all outcomes after the Steam 15% fee. Profit — their difference, on average over many crafts. Chance of profit — the share of outcomes that pay for the input on their own.
Buy float — the strictest wear requirement among the inputs: lots with a float above this number don’t fit. “Any lot” — no need to choose.
Before buying, open the craft and press «Check floats on Steam»: the site will look at real listings and recalculate the profit.
Crafts calculated in total: 48 635.
!
The gain is understated:8 270 of 8 695 crafts have an outcome above the Steam capThe gain here is understated.
Steam has a price ceiling, and expensive knives are not listed on the market at all. Such an outcome is counted at the cheapest listing on CSFloat or Market.CSGO minus their fee (the outcome says “sell on…”). Where there is no price there either, the outcome is counted as zero, so the true expected value can be higher than shown.
Profitable945craftsof 8 695 in the recalculation
Best profit—nothing profitable to assemble
Median ROI+19%half of the profitable crafts are above
The summary covers all crafts of the recalculation, risk-labelled ones included: 8 695.Shown in the list below: 10.Hidden:“profit on prices without sales” — 689.
A craft can carry several labels.Your own conditions apply too.
Craft ROI all crafts of the recalculation: how many in each band
No profitable craft that can be assembled under these conditions: not enough market lots, or the profit rests on resale and no-deal prices. The full list is below.
no outcome pricemarketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.sells slowly29% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.pricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
no outcome pricemarketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.sells slowly62% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.pricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
no outcome pricemarketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.sells slowly56% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.pricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
no outcome pricemarketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.sells slowly62% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.pricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
no outcome pricemarketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.sells slowly56% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.pricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
M4A4 | In Living Color (Factory New): buy 0.0000–0.0111 (3% of this wear's listings); Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New): buy 0.0000–0.0111 (≈2% of this wear's listings)
Stays in profit even if the week before the sale turns out bad: only one week in ten is worse.
no outcome pricemarketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.sells slowly29% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.pricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
outcome without salesno outcome priceOutcome above the Steam cap: no price, the gain is understatedmarketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.pricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
no outcome pricemarketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.sells slowly33% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.pricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
no outcome pricemarketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.sells slowly29% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.pricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
no outcome pricemarketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.sells slowly29% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 1 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.pricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
marketplace pricesells slowly29% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.pricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
marketplace pricesells slowly62% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.pricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
marketplace pricesells slowly56% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.pricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
marketplace pricesells slowly62% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.pricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
marketplace pricesells slowly56% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.pricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
marketplace pricesells slowly29% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.pricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
outcome without salesmarketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.pricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
marketplace pricesells slowly33% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.pricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
marketplace pricesells slowly29% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.pricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
marketplace pricesells slowly29% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 1 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.pricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
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Steam
★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Factory New)
