The second kind of contract: five Covert skins give a knife or gloves from the inputs’ collection. The float rule is the same, only the average is taken over five.
Covert can also be obtained by crafting. A chain from Classified needs 50 items, from Restricted — 500 (the “Steps” filter). Any other chain, even from Consumer, is calculated by the chain builder.
There are many outcomes: five knife models with thirteen finishes each. So look at the average over all outcomes; you cannot count on one particular knife.
Craft — ten items of one rarity are exchanged for one item of the next rarity from the same collections. Which one drops is decided by chance, but the odds and the float of the outcome are computed exactly.
Invest — how much the inputs cost at the cheapest lots. Returns — the average over all outcomes after the Steam 15% fee. Profit — their difference, on average over many crafts. Chance of profit — the share of outcomes that pay for the input on their own.
Buy float — the strictest wear requirement among the inputs: lots with a float above this number don’t fit. “Any lot” — no need to choose.
Before buying, open the craft and press «Check floats on Steam»: the site will look at real listings and recalculate the profit.
Crafts calculated in total: 48 141.
!
The gain is understated:8 092 of 8 368 crafts have an outcome above the Steam capThe gain here is understated.
Steam has a price ceiling, and expensive knives are not listed on the market at all. Such an outcome is counted at the cheapest listing on CSFloat or Market.CSGO minus their fee (the outcome says “sell on…”). Where there is no price there either, the outcome is counted as zero, so the true expected value can be higher than shown.
The summary covers all crafts of the recalculation, risk-labelled ones included: 8 368.Of them the site shows the best: 5 000.Shown in the list below: 166.Hidden:“profit only from resale” — 57.
A craft can carry several labels.Your own conditions apply too.
Craft ROI all crafts of the recalculation: how many in each band
Purchase at the cheapest listing of the wear — in practice it will cost more: listings with the needed float are pricier, and the profit below will be smaller or turn into a loss. Count by float
no outcome pricemarketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.sells slowly37% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.pricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
→Steam★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)
Best outcome
float up to 0.069999
Return after fees
170 $
Float
0.0000–0.0092 +1
Lots that fit
1%
Sales per week
0
Ways to assemble
4
StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New): buy 0.0000–0.0092 (4% of this wear's listings); StatTrak™ AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Factory New): buy 0.0000–0.0092 (1% of this wear's listings)
no outcome pricemarketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.sells slowly72% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.pricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
no outcome pricemarketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.sells slowly76% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.pricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New): buy 0.0000–0.0121 (4% of this wear's listings); StatTrak™ FAMAS | Bad Trip (Factory New): buy 0.0000–0.0121 (4% of this wear's listings)
no outcome pricemarketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.sells slowly69% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.pricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
→Steam★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)
Best outcome
float up to 0.069999
Return after fees
149 $
Float
0.0000–0.0042 +2
Lots that fit
4%
Sales per week
0
Ways to assemble
4
StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Minimal Wear): buy 0.0700–0.0749 (6% of this wear's listings); StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New): buy 0.0000–0.0042 (4% of this wear's listings); StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Gold Toof (Minimal Wear): buy 0.0700–0.0749 (21% of this wear's listings)
no outcome pricemarketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.sells slowly66% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.pricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
→Steam★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)
Best outcome
float up to 0.069999
Return after fees
175 $
Float
0.0000–0.0092 +2
Lots that fit
4%
Sales per week
0
Ways to assemble
4
StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Minimal Wear): buy 0.0700–0.0806 (12% of this wear's listings); StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New): buy 0.0000–0.0092 (4% of this wear's listings); StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Code Red (Field-Tested): buy 0.1500–0.1805 (6% of this wear's listings)
no outcome pricemarketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.sells slowly76% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.pricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
no outcome pricemarketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.sells slowly66% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.pricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
no outcome pricemarketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.sells slowly62% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.pricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Minimal Wear): buy 0.0700–0.0788 (6% of this wear's listings); StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New): buy 0.0000–0.0077 (4% of this wear's listings); StatTrak™ P90 | Asiimov (Field-Tested): buy 0.1500–0.1753 (9% of this wear's listings)
no outcome pricemarketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.sells slowly62% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.pricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Minimal Wear): buy 0.0700–0.0881 (25% of this wear's listings); StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New): buy 0.0000–0.0158 (4% of this wear's listings)
no outcome pricemarketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.sells slowly75% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.pricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
no outcome pricemarketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.sells slowly65% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.pricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
no outcome pricemarketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.sells slowly62% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.pricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
no outcome pricesells slowly42% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.pricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
→Steam★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)
Best outcome
float up to 0.013513
Return after fees
180 $
Float
0.0000–0.0070 +1
Lots that fit
0%
Sales per week
0
Ways to assemble
4
StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New): buy 0.0000–0.0070 (4% of this wear's listings); StatTrak™ FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New): buy 0.0000–0.0070 (0% of this wear's listings)
no outcome pricemarketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.sells slowly84% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.pricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Minimal Wear): buy 0.0700–0.0774 (6% of this wear's listings); StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear): buy 0.0700–0.0774 (under 1% of this wear's listings)
no outcome pricemarketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.sells slowly84% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.pricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
StatTrak™ P90 | Death by Kitty (Field-Tested): buy 0.1500–0.2156 (≈8% of this wear's listings); StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Field-Tested): buy 0.1500–0.2388 (62% of this wear's listings)
no outcome pricemarketplace pricePrice from CSFloat / Market.CSGO listings: at least 3 listings, checked against the second marketplace or the neighbouring wear. It sells there, and the money is real.sells slowly84% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.pricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Field-Tested): buy 0.1500–0.2388 (62% of this wear's listings); StatTrak™ P90 | Death by Kitty (Field-Tested): buy 0.1500–0.2156 (≈8% of this wear's listings)
marketplace pricesells slowly37% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.pricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
marketplace pricesells slowly72% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.pricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
marketplace pricesells slowly76% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.pricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
marketplace pricesells slowly69% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.pricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
marketplace pricesells slowly66% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.pricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
marketplace pricesells slowly76% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.pricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
marketplace pricesells slowly66% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.pricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
marketplace pricesells slowly62% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.pricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
marketplace pricesells slowly62% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.pricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
marketplace pricesells slowly75% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.pricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
marketplace pricesells slowly65% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.pricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
marketplace pricesells slowly62% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.pricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
sells slowlyrare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.pricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
marketplace pricesells slowly84% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.pricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
marketplace pricesells slowly84% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.pricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
marketplace pricesells slowly84% of the probability falls on outcomes that sell fewer than 21 times a week (3 a day): at the lowest price they won't be bought right away.rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day. Buying them up will take long, and the price will change meanwhile.pricier variants existThe price depends on the pattern (phase, design) and float, some copies cost more. The calculation uses the usual price.
→
Steam
★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)
