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The Shadow Collection

Restricted → Classified

Average profit +1 238.09₴

Invest 1 652.00₴

Average return 2 890.09₴

ROI +74.9%

Chance of profit 67%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 3 992.88₴ · profit at most −1 102.78₴ (at most -27.6%) · chance of profit at most 33%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

M249 | Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear) × 7 11% of the wear window fits at least ×2.55 894.32 → 2280.52 ₴

MP7 | Special Delivery (Factory New) × 3 11% of the wear window fits at least ×2.26 757.68 → 1712.36 ₴

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −646 ₴

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one Restricted → Classified

+1 238.09 ₴ +74.9% chance of profit 67%

expensive: AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Factory New) · 5 652.03 ₴ · chance 33%

profit on prices without salesat least −646 ₴

7× M249 | Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0787
3× MP7 | Special Delivery (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0076

Variant 2 Classified → Covert

+4 333.15 ₴ +54.1% chance of profit 100%

expensive: USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Factory New) · 13 381.68 ₴ · chance 50%

profit on prices without salesat least −8 012 ₴

8× G3SG1 | Flux (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0766
2× SSG 08 | Big Iron (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0058

How to build

11% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (by listings)

Price understated: only 11% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×7

M249 | Nebula Crusader

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0787

894.32 ₴

at 127.76

Steam

×3

MP7 | Special Delivery

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0076

757.68 ₴

at 252.56

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 1 652.00 ₴ +1 238.09 (+74.9%)

What you get 3 outcomes

Profitable outcome 33%
Losing outcome 33%
About break-even 33%

in profit

best

AK-47 | Frontside Misty

Factory New

6 499.83 ₴ 33.33%

price without deals

Steam

about break-even

G3SG1 | Flux

Factory New

1 991.48 ₴ 33.33%

Steam

at a loss

worst

SSG 08 | Big Iron

Factory New

1 479.50 ₴ 33.33%

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +809.83 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +1 107.32 ₴ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Shadow Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Shadow Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 1 way: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 3 outcomes

More

How to build