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The 2018 Inferno Collection + The 2021 Dust 2 Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Average profit +595.13₽

Invest 1 242.66₽

Average return 1 837.79₽

ROI +47.9%

Chance of profit 40%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 2 946.41₽ · profit at most −1 108.61₽ (at most -37.6%) · chance of profit at most 10%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

Sawed-Off | Brake Light (Factory New) × 9 5% of the wear window fits at least ×2.63 558.00 → 1467.54 ₽

Souvenir G3SG1 | New Roots (Field-Tested) × 1 5% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 684.66 → 1478.87 ₽

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The 2018 Inferno Collection + The 2021 Dust 2 Collection

+595.13 ₽ +47.9% chance of profit 40%

expensive: M4A4 | Red DDPAT (Factory New) · 12 402.36 ₽ · chance 3.3%

rare inputs

9× Sawed-Off | Brake Light (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0036
1× Souvenir G3SG1 | New Roots (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1618

Variant 2 The Gamma 2 Collection instead of The 2021 Dust 2 Collection

+2 173.92 ₽ +274.4% chance of profit 46%

expensive: Desert Eagle | Directive (Factory New) · 11 660.68 ₽ · chance 18%

sells slowly

1× USP-S | Check Engine (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0054
9× XM1014 | Slipstream (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0054

Variant 3 The Glove Collection instead of The 2021 Dust 2 Collection

+799.44 ₽ +116.8% chance of profit 92%

expensive: M4A1-S | Flashback (Factory New) · 9 555.43 ₽ · chance 4.0%

rare inputs

8× Sawed-Off | Brake Light (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0037
2× P2000 | Turf (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1623

Variant 4 The Anubis Collection instead of The 2021 Dust 2 Collection

+777.23 ₽ +109.4% chance of profit 100%

expensive: Glock-18 | Ramese's Reach (Factory New) · 6 086.96 ₽ · chance 6.7%

rare inputs

8× Sawed-Off | Brake Light (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0037
2× Tec-9 | Mummy's Rot (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1623

Variant 5 The 2018 Nuke Collection instead of The 2021 Dust 2 Collection

+648.25 ₽ +110.9% chance of profit 100%

expensive: Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Factory New) · 3 053.38 ₽ · chance 6.7%

pricier variants exist

8× Sawed-Off | Brake Light (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0040
2× P90 | Facility Negative (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0745

Variant 6 The Shattered Web Collection instead of The 2021 Dust 2 Collection

+644.89 ₽ +98.1% chance of profit 100%

expensive: AK-47 | Rat Rod (Factory New) · 5 234.48 ₽ · chance 4.0%

rare inputs

8× Sawed-Off | Brake Light (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0037
2× SCAR-20 | Torn (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0742

How to build

5% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 5% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×9

Sawed-Off | Brake Light

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0036

558.00 ₽

at 62.00

Steam

×1

Souvenir G3SG1 | New Roots

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1618

684.66 ₽

at 684.66

souvenirSteam

Set · 10 pcs 1 242.66 ₽ +595.13 (+47.9%)

profit on prices without sales at least −980 ₽

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×7

Sawed-Off | Brake Light

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0040

434.00 ₽

at 62.00

Steam

×1

Souvenir P250 | Black & Tan

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1634

591.59 ₽

at 591.59

souvenirSteam

×2

Souvenir Nova | Quick Sand

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0040

1 979.52 ₽

at 989.76

souvenirSteam

Set · 10 pcs 3 005.11 ₽ +264.78 (+8.8%)

profit on prices without sales at least −353 ₽

5% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 5% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×8

Sawed-Off | Brake Light

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0036

496.00 ₽

at 62.00

Steam

×1

Souvenir P250 | Black & Tan

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1621

591.59 ₽

at 591.59

souvenirSteam

×1

Souvenir Nova | Quick Sand

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0036

989.76 ₽

at 989.76

souvenirSteam

Set · 10 pcs 2 077.35 ₽ +476.49 (+22.9%)

profit on prices without sales at least −1 563 ₽

5% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 5% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×6

Sawed-Off | Brake Light

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0036

372.00 ₽

at 62.00

Steam

×1

Souvenir Galil AR | Amber Fade

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1619

548.55 ₽

at 548.55

souvenirSteam

×3

Souvenir Nova | Quick Sand

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0036

2 969.28 ₽

at 989.76

souvenirSteam

Set · 10 pcs 3 889.83 ₽ +96.11 (+2.5%)

What you get 6 outcomes

Profitable outcome 40%
Losing outcome 60%

at a loss

AK-47 | Safety Net

Factory New

1 150.00 ₽ 30.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

MP7 | Fade

Factory New

1 070.81 ₽ 30.00%

pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

P250 | Vino Primo

Factory New

1 649.21 ₽ 30.00%

Steam

in profit

best

M4A4 | Red DDPAT

Factory New

14 262.71 ₽ 3.33%

Steam

in profit

MAC-10 | Case Hardened

Factory New

6 685.00 ₽ 3.33%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

USP-S | Orange Anolis

Factory New

7 625.97 ₽ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +218.61 ₽ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +508.63 ₽ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The 2018 Inferno Collection and The 2021 Dust 2 Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The 2018 Inferno Collection + The 2021 Dust 2 Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 6 outcomes

More

How to build