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The 2021 Dust 2 Collection + The Overpass 2024 Collection

Restricted → Classified

Average profit +1 996.24₴

Invest 13 934.10₴

Average return 15 930.35₴

ROI +14.3%

Chance of profit 45%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 36 484.38₴ · profit at most −20 554.03₴ (at most -56.3%) · chance of profit at most 0%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) × 9 9% of the wear window fits at least ×2.63 13588.76 → 35738.44 ₴

XM1014 | Monster Melt (Factory New) × 1 9% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 345.34 → 745.94 ₴

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −13 645 ₴

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The 2021 Dust 2 Collection + The Overpass 2024 Collection

+1 996.25 ₴ +14.3% chance of profit 45%

expensive: SSG 08 | Death Strike (Factory New) · 24 659.27 ₴ · chance 45%

profit on prices without salesat least −13 645 ₴

9× MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0768
1× XM1014 | Monster Melt (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0060

Variant 2 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The 2021 Dust 2 Collection

+1 110.40 ₴ +40.0% chance of profit 95%

expensive: M4A1-S | Fatal Glitch (Factory New) · 4 140.99 ₴ · chance 45%

sells slowly

1× XM1014 | Monster Melt (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0060
9× CZ75-Auto | Hydraulics (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0768

Variant 3 The Phoenix Collection instead of The 2021 Dust 2 Collection

+926.01 ₴ +59.2% chance of profit 40%

expensive: AK-47 | Redline (Minimal Wear) · 6 651.70 ₴ · chance 30%

sells slowly

1× XM1014 | Monster Melt (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1617
9× FAMAS | Sergeant (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1617

Variant 4 The Spectrum 2 Collection instead of The 2021 Dust 2 Collection

+822.83 ₴ +65.3% chance of profit 80%

expensive: AWP | Crakow! (Factory New) · 3 759.17 ₴ · chance 20%

sells slowly

2× AUG | Eye of Zapems (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1622
2× AUG | Eye of Zapems (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0742
6× UMP-45 | Exposure (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0037

Variant 5 The Radiant Collection instead of The 2021 Dust 2 Collection

+820.83 ₴ +39.2% chance of profit 80%

expensive: AWP | Crakow! (Factory New) · 3 759.17 ₴ · chance 20%

sells slowly

4× AUG | Eye of Zapems (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0743
3× M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0743
3× M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0038

Variant 6 The Revolution Collection instead of The 2021 Dust 2 Collection

+745.84 ₴ +51.4% chance of profit 70%

expensive: AWP | Crakow! (Factory New) · 3 759.17 ₴ · chance 35%

sells slowly

7× AUG | Eye of Zapems (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0764
3× MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Field-Tested) buy 0.2100–0.2236

How to build

9% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 9% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×9

MAC-10 | Case Hardened

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0768

13 588.76 ₴

at 1 509.86

Steam

×1

XM1014 | Monster Melt

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0060

345.34 ₴

at 345.34

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 13 934.10 ₴ +1 996.24 (+14.3%)

What you get 4 outcomes

Profitable outcome 45%
Losing outcome 55%

in profit

best

SSG 08 | Death Strike

Factory New

28 358.17 ₴ 45.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

UMP-45 | Fade

Factory New

11 614.29 ₴ 45.00%

price without deals pricier variants exist

Steam

at a loss

AWP | Crakow!

Factory New

4 323.04 ₴ 5.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

Zeus x27 | Dragon Snore

Factory New

2 322.85 ₴ 5.00%

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +410.81 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +1 524.72 ₴ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The 2021 Dust 2 Collection and The Overpass 2024 Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

Similar 19 crafts almost like this one

The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 1705962 · The 2021 Dust 2 Collection + The Clutch Collection · profit 2 054.91₴ · invest 13 658.91₴
profit on prices without salesat least −13 586 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

Negev | Lionfish (Factory New) instead of XM1014 | Monster Melt (Factory New); MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076609 instead of 0.076885
Craft 1706317 · The 2021 Dust 2 Collection + The Radiant Collection · profit 2 050.98₴ · invest 13 883.39₴
profit on prices without salesat least −13 590 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Factory New) instead of XM1014 | Monster Melt (Factory New); MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076792 instead of 0.076885
Craft 1706137 · The 2021 Dust 2 Collection + The Horizon Collection · profit 2 049.61₴ · invest 13 973.55₴
profit on prices without salesat least −13 592 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

AWP | PAW (Factory New) instead of XM1014 | Monster Melt (Factory New); MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076511 instead of 0.076885
Craft 1706395 · The 2021 Dust 2 Collection + The Snakebite Collection · profit 2 044.73₴ · invest 13 674.45₴
profit on prices without salesat least −13 650 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

Negev | dev_texture (Factory New) instead of XM1014 | Monster Melt (Factory New); MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076765 instead of 0.076885
Craft 1706174 · The 2021 Dust 2 Collection + The Kilowatt Collection · profit 2 043.44₴ · invest 13 652.16₴
profit on prices without salesat least −13 598 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Factory New) instead of XM1014 | Monster Melt (Factory New); MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076721 instead of 0.076885
Craft 1705754 · The 2021 Dust 2 Collection + The Ancient Collection · profit 2 030.02₴ · invest 14 621.17₴
profit on prices without salesat least −14 621 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

Souvenir USP-S | Ancient Visions (Minimal Wear) instead of XM1014 | Monster Melt (Factory New); MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.077970 instead of 0.076885
Craft 1706323 · The 2021 Dust 2 Collection + The Recoil Collection · profit 2 028.27₴ · invest 13 660.51₴
profit on prices without salesat least −13 613 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

M249 | Downtown (Factory New) instead of XM1014 | Monster Melt (Factory New); MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076765 instead of 0.076885
Craft 1705920 · The 2021 Dust 2 Collection + The CS20 Collection · profit 2 027.79₴ · invest 13 716.04₴
profit on prices without salesat least −13 689 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

M249 | Aztec (Factory New) instead of XM1014 | Monster Melt (Factory New)
Craft 1706500 · The 2021 Dust 2 Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit 2 018.28₴ · invest 13 877.84₴
profit on prices without salesat least −13 839 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

MAG-7 | Praetorian (Factory New) instead of XM1014 | Monster Melt (Factory New); MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076395 instead of 0.076885
Craft 1706068 · The 2021 Dust 2 Collection + The Genesis Collection · profit 2 008.97₴ · invest 13 761.68₴
profit on prices without salesat least −13 674 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

Nova | Ocular (Factory New) instead of XM1014 | Monster Melt (Factory New); MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.077088 instead of 0.076885
Craft 1705986 · The 2021 Dust 2 Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit 2 007.39₴ · invest 13 787.92₴
profit on prices without salesat least −13 668 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New) instead of XM1014 | Monster Melt (Factory New); MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.077088 instead of 0.076885
Craft 1706339 · The 2021 Dust 2 Collection + The Revolver Case Collection · profit 1 988.94₴ · invest 13 787.89₴
profit on prices without salesat least −13 690 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

XM1014 | Teclu Burner (Factory New) instead of XM1014 | Monster Melt (Factory New); MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076765 instead of 0.076885
Craft 1706273 · The 2021 Dust 2 Collection + The Prisma 2 Collection · profit 1 986.11₴ · invest 13 737.57₴
profit on prices without salesat least −13 655 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Factory New) instead of XM1014 | Monster Melt (Factory New); MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.077088 instead of 0.076885
Craft 1706262 · The 2021 Dust 2 Collection + The Overpass Collection · profit 1 984.39₴ · invest 14 554.76₴
profit on prices without salesat least −14 555 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) instead of XM1014 | Monster Melt (Factory New); MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.079575 instead of 0.076885
Craft 1705950 · The 2021 Dust 2 Collection + The Chroma 3 Collection · profit 1 968.61₴ · invest 13 761.23₴
profit on prices without salesat least −13 712 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

XM1014 | Black Tie (Factory New) instead of XM1014 | Monster Melt (Factory New)
Craft 1705732 · The 2021 Dust 2 Collection + The Achroma Collection · profit 1 966.06₴ · invest 13 859.93₴
profit on prices without salesat least −13 675 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Factory New) instead of XM1014 | Monster Melt (Factory New); MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076829 instead of 0.076885
Craft 1706492 · The 2021 Dust 2 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 1 864.37₴ · invest 13 911.39₴
profit on prices without salesat least −13 911 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

Sawed-Off | Highwayman (Factory New) instead of XM1014 | Monster Melt (Factory New); MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.077088 instead of 0.076885
Craft 1706223 · The 2021 Dust 2 Collection + The Operation Hydra Collection · profit 1 861.16₴ · invest 14 543.75₴
profit on prices without salesat least −14 355 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

P90 | Death Grip (Field-Tested) instead of XM1014 | Monster Melt (Factory New); MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.077999 instead of 0.076885
Craft 1706502 · The 2021 Dust 2 Collection + The Winter Offensive Collection · profit 1 854.86₴ · invest 14 024.29₴
profit on prices without salesat least −13 928 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

Nova | Rising Skull (Factory New) instead of XM1014 | Monster Melt (Factory New); MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076511 instead of 0.076885

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The 2021 Dust 2 Collection + The Overpass 2024 Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 4 outcomes

More

How to build