The 2021 Dust 2 Collection
+ The Winter Offensive Collection
Restricted → Classified
About the craftCraft 1706502 · ways to build: 5The Steam fee is included. You can sell the outcome a week after crafting.
Average profitAverage profitPer craft, Steam fee included: the average over all outcomes with their chances minus the investment.+3 539.85₽
Invest InvestBy the cheapest listings of the right wear, float not counted. The real purchase — after «Check floats on Steam».26 764.22₽
Average return Average returnAfter the Steam fee, averaged over outcomes with their chances.30 304.07₽
ROI ROIProfit divided by the investment.+13.2%
Chance of profit Chance of profitThe share of outcomes (by their chances) that pay back the input.45%
If buying now (with float)
invest at least 69 999.25₽
· profit at most −39 695.18₽
(at most -56.7%) · chance of profit at most 0%
An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.
!
The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.
MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) × 98% of the wear window fitsat least ×2.6325933.05 → 68203.92 ₽
Nova | Rising Skull (Factory New) × 18% of the wear window fitsat least ×2.16831.17 → 1795.33 ₽
Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.
profit on prices without salesIf these items are never sold, the profit is at least −26 580 ₽Which itemsIf these items are never sold, the profit is at least −26 580 ₽: SSG 08 | Death Strike (Factory New), UMP-45 | Fade (Factory New), M4A1-S | Guardian (Factory New), P250 | Mehndi (Factory New)
Craft variants
Craft variants
The same main collection (or the second one) with another partner — a different collection for balance. Numbers come from the same recount as the list. A variant at a loss is shown only if the loss is no more than 15% of the investment, the most expensive outcome brings at least three investments after the fee, and its price is confirmed by sales.
profit on prices without salesat least −26 580 ₽rare inputsThe rarest input sells 3 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.pricier variants existPattern (phase, design) and float change the price: some items sell for more. Counted at the usual price of the wear.
9× MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)buy0.0700–0.0765
1× Nova | Rising Skull (Factory New)buy0.0000–0.0056
Variant 2The eSports 2013 Collection instead of The 2021 Dust 2 Collection
profit on prices without salesat least −29 416 ₽rare inputsThe rarest input sells 0 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.pricier variants existPattern (phase, design) and float change the price: some items sell for more. Counted at the usual price of the wear.
profit on prices without salesat least −24 560 ₽rare inputsThe rarest input sells 1 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.pricier variants existPattern (phase, design) and float change the price: some items sell for more. Counted at the usual price of the wear.
profit on prices without salesat least −28 929 ₽rare inputsThe rarest input sells 1 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.pricier variants existPattern (phase, design) and float change the price: some items sell for more. Counted at the usual price of the wear.
1× MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)buy0.0700–0.0740
profit on prices without salesat least −26 623 ₽rare inputsThe rarest input sells 1 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.pricier variants existPattern (phase, design) and float change the price: some items sell for more. Counted at the usual price of the wear.
1× Souvenir M4A4 | Red DDPAT (Minimal Wear)buy0.0700–0.0745
3× Souvenir USP-S | Ancient Visions (Minimal Wear)buy0.0700–0.0745
6× Souvenir USP-S | Ancient Visions (Factory New)buy0.0000–0.0040
How to build
Ways to build
5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.
!
8% of lots fit≈ enough for 0contracts · hard (estimate)
Price understated: only 8% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
×9
MAC-10 | Case Hardened
Minimal Wear
buy0.0700–0.0765
(≈0% of this wear's listings)
25 933.05 ₽
at 2 881.45
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.076511f′ (normalized) 0.076511wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 26 · good ≈ 0
Market history: no data yet
×1
Nova | Rising Skull
Factory New
buy0.0000–0.0056
(3% of this wear's listings)
831.17 ₽
at 831.17
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.005697f′ (normalized) 0.011395wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 59 · good ≈ 1
on the market with this float, usually ~2,
new ~0.0 per day, cheapest usually 5 491.82 ₽ · little data: 2.9 d.
Set · 10 pcs26 764.22 ₽
+3 539.85
(+13.2%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.069999900result 0.056000, 0.005600, 0.121000, 0.035000, 0.070000«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
!
profit on prices without salesat least −21 613 ₽
!
7% of lots fit≈ enough for 0contracts · hard (estimate)
Price understated: only 7% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
×7
MAC-10 | Case Hardened
Minimal Wear
buy0.0700–0.0756
(≈0% of this wear's listings)
20 170.15 ₽
at 2 881.45
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.075609f′ (normalized) 0.075609wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 26 · good ≈ 0
Market history: no data yet
×3
Dual Berettas | Marina
Minimal Wear
buy0.0700–0.0756
(≈0% of this wear's listings)
1 995.00 ₽
at 665.00
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.075609f′ (normalized) 0.056910wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 51 · good ≈ 0
Market history: no data yet
Set · 10 pcs22 165.15 ₽
+2 412.96
(+10.9%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.069999900result 0.056000, 0.005600, 0.121000, 0.035000, 0.070000«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
!
profit on prices without salesat least −16 753 ₽
!
7% of lots fit≈ enough for 0contracts · hard (estimate)
Price understated: only 7% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
×1
MAC-10 | Case Hardened
Field-Tested
buy0.1500–0.1651
(under 1% of this wear's listings)
2 656.92 ₽
at 2 656.92
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.165138f′ (normalized) 0.165138wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 28 · good ≈ 0
Market history: no data yet
×4
MAC-10 | Case Hardened
Minimal Wear
buy0.0700–0.0752
(≈0% of this wear's listings)
11 525.80 ₽
at 2 881.45
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.075265f′ (normalized) 0.075265wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 26 · good ≈ 0
Market history: no data yet
×4
Dual Berettas | Marina
Minimal Wear
buy0.0700–0.0752
(≈0% of this wear's listings)
2 660.00 ₽
at 665.00
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.075265f′ (normalized) 0.056145wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 51 · good ≈ 0
Market history: no data yet
×1
Nova | Rising Skull
Factory New
buy0.0000–0.0046
(3% of this wear's listings)
831.17 ₽
at 831.17
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.004607f′ (normalized) 0.009214wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 59 · good ≈ 1
on the market with this float, usually ~2,
new ~0.0 per day, cheapest usually 5 491.82 ₽ · little data: 2.9 d.
Set · 10 pcs17 673.89 ₽
+1 178.26
(+6.7%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.069999900result 0.056000, 0.005600, 0.121000, 0.035000, 0.070000«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
!
profit on prices without salesat least −11 785 ₽
!
6% of lots fit≈ enough for 0contracts · hard (estimate)
Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
×1
MAC-10 | Case Hardened
Field-Tested
buy0.1500–0.1639
(under 1% of this wear's listings)
2 656.92 ₽
at 2 656.92
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.163915f′ (normalized) 0.163915wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 28 · good ≈ 0
Market history: no data yet
×2
MAC-10 | Case Hardened
Minimal Wear
buy0.0700–0.0748
(≈0% of this wear's listings)
5 762.90 ₽
at 2 881.45
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.074840f′ (normalized) 0.074840wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 26 · good ≈ 0
Market history: no data yet
×7
Dual Berettas | Marina
Minimal Wear
buy0.0700–0.0748
(≈0% of this wear's listings)
4 655.00 ₽
at 665.00
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.074840f′ (normalized) 0.055200wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 51 · good ≈ 0
Market history: no data yet
Set · 10 pcs13 074.82 ₽
+51.38
(+0.4%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.069999900result 0.121000, 0.035000, 0.070000, 0.056000, 0.005600«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
!
profit on prices without salesat least −14 288 ₽
!
6% of lots fit≈ enough for 0contracts · hard (estimate)
Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.
×1
Souvenir M4A4 | Red DDPAT
Minimal Wear
buy0.0700–0.0745
(≈0% of this wear's listings)
2 758.40 ₽
at 2 758.40
souvenirSteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.074545f′ (normalized) 0.149090wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 21 · good ≈ 0
Market history: no data yet
×3
MAC-10 | Case Hardened
Minimal Wear
buy0.0700–0.0745
(≈0% of this wear's listings)
8 644.35 ₽
at 2 881.45
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.074545f′ (normalized) 0.074545wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 26 · good ≈ 0
Market history: no data yet
×6
Dual Berettas | Marina
Minimal Wear
buy0.0700–0.0745
(≈0% of this wear's listings)
3 990.00 ₽
at 665.00
SteamBuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGOPurchase detailsexact upper edge 0.074545f′ (normalized) 0.054545wear 0.0700–0.1500on the market 51 · good ≈ 0
Market history: no data yet
Set · 10 pcs15 392.75 ₽
+596.43
(+3.9%)
Average float of the setaverage normalized 0.069999900result 0.056000, 0.005600, 0.121000, 0.035000, 0.070000«No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.
Another set, profit no worse than the best by%
What you get
5 outcomes
Profitable outcome 45%
Losing outcome 55%
in profit
best
SSG 08 | Death Strike
Factory New
54 119.27 ₽45.00%
price without deals
SteamSSG 08 | Death Strike (Factory New)net 47060.23you get 0.056000
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 36 224.25 ₽
(you get 31 499.34)) · buy orders: 391
sell on Market.CSGO: 34 876.17 ₽ to your card
cheapest lot 38 241.42 · lots 4
on CSFloat: from 27 351.49 ₽listings: 30
on CS.Money: ~ 26 510.33 ₽
on Lis-Skins: from 26 802.43 ₽listings: 28
at a loss
UMP-45 | Fade
Factory New
22 164.94 ₽45.00%
price without dealspricier variants exist
SteamUMP-45 | Fade (Factory New)net 19273.86you get 0.005600
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 19 678.44 ₽
(you get 17 111.68)) · buy orders: 757
sell on Market.CSGO: 17 328.00 ₽ to your card
cheapest lot 19 000.00 · lots 19price ignores float
on CSFloat: from 15 338.80 ₽listings: 44
on CS.Money: ~ 15 740.54 ₽
on Lis-Skins: from 15 329.38 ₽listings: 51
at a loss
AWP | Redline
Minimal Wear
6 355.21 ₽3.33%
SteamAWP | Redline (Minimal Wear)net 5526.27you get 0.121000The Winter Offensive Collectionsells 40 a weeksell now to a buy order: 5 747.95 ₽
(you get 4 998.21)) · buy orders: 1915
sell on Market.CSGO: 4 764.50 ₽ to your card
cheapest lot 5 224.24 · lots 64
on CSFloat: from 4 411.39 ₽listings: 681
on CS.Money: ~ 4 960.46 ₽
on Lis-Skins: from 4 637.53 ₽listings: 596
sell now to a buy order: 6 264.32 ₽
(you get 5 447.23)) · buy orders: 2678
sell on Market.CSGO: 5 180.63 ₽ to your card
cheapest lot 5 680.52 · lots 44
on CSFloat: from 4 616.12 ₽listings: 408
on CS.Money: ~ 5 022.99 ₽
on Lis-Skins: from 4 608.41 ₽listings: 245
sell now to a buy order: 2 709.03 ₽
(you get 2 355.67)) · buy orders: 535
sell on Market.CSGO: 2 331.93 ₽ to your card
cheapest lot 2 556.95 · lots 28
on CSFloat: from 2 323.05 ₽listings: 64
on CS.Money: ~ 2 294.78 ₽
on Lis-Skins: from 2 335.04 ₽listings: 84
More
In a week, when the outcome can be sold
from outcome price history
In a bad week+537.47 ₽a worse week happens one time in ten
In a typical week+2 633.43 ₽historical median
If you repeat
10 000 simulations over the outcome odds
I already have items
enter their float — I'll pick what to buy
Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The 2021 Dust 2 Collection and The Winter Offensive Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.
Third collection
add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more
All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.
Similar
19 crafts almost like this one
The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.
Craft 1705962
· The 2021 Dust 2 Collection + The Clutch Collection · profit 3 921.62₽
· invest 26 066.93₽
profit on prices without salesat least −25 929 ₽rare inputspricier variants exist
Negev | Lionfish (Factory New) instead of Nova | Rising Skull (Factory New); MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076609 instead of 0.076511
Craft 1706317
· The 2021 Dust 2 Collection + The Radiant Collection · profit 3 914.13₽
· invest 26 495.33₽
profit on prices without salesat least −25 936 ₽rare inputspricier variants exist
M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Factory New) instead of Nova | Rising Skull (Factory New); MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076792 instead of 0.076511
Craft 1706137
· The 2021 Dust 2 Collection + The Horizon Collection · profit 3 911.52₽
· invest 26 667.40₽
profit on prices without salesat least −25 939 ₽rare inputspricier variants exist
AWP | PAW (Factory New) instead of Nova | Rising Skull (Factory New)
Craft 1706395
· The 2021 Dust 2 Collection + The Snakebite Collection · profit 3 902.21₽
· invest 26 096.59₽
profit on prices without salesat least −26 050 ₽rare inputspricier variants exist
Negev | dev_texture (Factory New) instead of Nova | Rising Skull (Factory New); MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076765 instead of 0.076511
Craft 1706174
· The 2021 Dust 2 Collection + The Kilowatt Collection · profit 3 899.74₽
· invest 26 054.05₽
profit on prices without salesat least −25 951 ₽rare inputspricier variants exist
Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Factory New) instead of Nova | Rising Skull (Factory New); MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076721 instead of 0.076511
Craft 1705754
· The 2021 Dust 2 Collection + The Ancient Collection · profit 3 874.13₽
· invest 27 903.32₽
profit on prices without salesat least −27 903 ₽rare inputspricier variants exist
Souvenir USP-S | Ancient Visions (Minimal Wear) instead of Nova | Rising Skull (Factory New); MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.077970 instead of 0.076511
Craft 1706323
· The 2021 Dust 2 Collection + The Recoil Collection · profit 3 870.79₽
· invest 26 069.98₽
profit on prices without salesat least −25 980 ₽rare inputspricier variants exist
M249 | Downtown (Factory New) instead of Nova | Rising Skull (Factory New); MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076765 instead of 0.076511
Craft 1705920
· The 2021 Dust 2 Collection + The CS20 Collection · profit 3 869.87₽
· invest 26 175.96₽
profit on prices without salesat least −26 125 ₽rare inputspricier variants exist
M249 | Aztec (Factory New) instead of Nova | Rising Skull (Factory New); MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076885 instead of 0.076511
Craft 1706500
· The 2021 Dust 2 Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit 3 851.72₽
· invest 26 484.73₽
profit on prices without salesat least −26 411 ₽rare inputspricier variants exist
MAG-7 | Praetorian (Factory New) instead of Nova | Rising Skull (Factory New); MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076395 instead of 0.076511
Craft 1706068
· The 2021 Dust 2 Collection + The Genesis Collection · profit 3 833.97₽
· invest 26 263.05₽
profit on prices without salesat least −26 097 ₽rare inputspricier variants exist
Nova | Ocular (Factory New) instead of Nova | Rising Skull (Factory New); MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.077088 instead of 0.076511
Craft 1705986
· The 2021 Dust 2 Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit 3 830.95₽
· invest 26 313.13₽
profit on prices without salesat least −26 085 ₽rare inputspricier variants exist
MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New) instead of Nova | Rising Skull (Factory New); MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.077088 instead of 0.076511
profit on prices without salesat least −26 041 ₽rare inputspricier variants exist
XM1014 | Monster Melt (Factory New) instead of Nova | Rising Skull (Factory New); MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076885 instead of 0.076511
Craft 1706339
· The 2021 Dust 2 Collection + The Revolver Case Collection · profit 3 795.73₽
· invest 26 313.08₽
profit on prices without salesat least −26 127 ₽rare inputspricier variants exist
XM1014 | Teclu Burner (Factory New) instead of Nova | Rising Skull (Factory New); MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076765 instead of 0.076511
profit on prices without salesat least −26 060 ₽rare inputspricier variants exist
Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Factory New) instead of Nova | Rising Skull (Factory New); MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.077088 instead of 0.076511
Craft 1706262
· The 2021 Dust 2 Collection + The Overpass Collection · profit 3 787.04₽
· invest 27 776.59₽
profit on prices without salesat least −27 777 ₽rare inputspricier variants exist
Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) instead of Nova | Rising Skull (Factory New); MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.079575 instead of 0.076511
profit on prices without salesat least −26 169 ₽rare inputspricier variants exist
XM1014 | Black Tie (Factory New) instead of Nova | Rising Skull (Factory New); MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076885 instead of 0.076511
Craft 1705732
· The 2021 Dust 2 Collection + The Achroma Collection · profit 3 752.06₽
· invest 26 450.55₽
profit on prices without salesat least −26 098 ₽rare inputspricier variants exist
Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Factory New) instead of Nova | Rising Skull (Factory New); MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076829 instead of 0.076511
Craft 1706492
· The 2021 Dust 2 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 3 557.99₽
· invest 26 548.77₽
profit on prices without salesat least −26 549 ₽rare inputspricier variants exist
Sawed-Off | Highwayman (Factory New) instead of Nova | Rising Skull (Factory New); MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.077088 instead of 0.076511
profit on prices without salesat least −27 395 ₽rare inputspricier variants exist
P90 | Death Grip (Field-Tested) instead of Nova | Rising Skull (Factory New); MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.077999 instead of 0.076511
How to read these numbers
«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.
f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.
Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.
The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.
Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.
