Crafts · The 2021 Mirage Collection
$≈
₽ RUB ₴ UAH ₸ KZT $ USD

≈ at the Steam rate on 06.10: 1 ₽ = 0.0117 $. This is a conversion, not the regional price.

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The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Achroma Collection

Restricted → Classified About the craft Craft 1706556 · ways to build: 5 The Steam fee is included. You can sell the outcome a week after crafting.
Average profit Average profitPer craft, Steam fee included: the average over all outcomes with their chances minus the investment. +109.26$
Invest InvestBy the cheapest listings of the right wear, float not counted. The real purchase — after «Check floats on Steam». 254.29$
Average return Average returnAfter the Steam fee, averaged over outcomes with their chances. 363.55$
ROI ROIProfit divided by the investment. +43.0%
Chance of profit Chance of profitThe share of outcomes (by their chances) that pay back the input. 45%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 609.96$ · profit at most −246.41$ (at most -40.4%) · chance of profit at most 0%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.
Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) × 6 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.51 143.45 → 360.07 $
Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Factory New) × 3 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.26 104.80 → 236.84 $
Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Factory New) × 1 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 6.04 → 13.05 $

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:
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To calculator I have items
profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −253 $ Which itemsIf these items are never sold, the profit is at least −253 $: Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Factory New), MP5-SD | Oxide Oasis (Factory New)

Craft variants Craft variants The same main collection (or the second one) with another partner — a different collection for balance. Numbers come from the same recount as the list. A variant at a loss is shown only if the loss is no more than 15% of the investment, the most expensive outcome brings at least three investments after the fee, and its price is confirmed by sales.

+ a third collection
Variant 1 this one The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Achroma Collection
+109.26 $ +43.0% chance of profit 45%
expensive: Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Factory New) · 579.10 $ · chance 45%
profit on prices without salesat least −253 $ rare inputs The rarest input sells 3 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 6× Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1631
  • 3× Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0040
  • 1× Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0040
Variant 2 The Horizon Collection instead of The 2021 Mirage Collection
+26.91 $ +50.1% chance of profit 30%
expensive: M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) · 209.15 $ · chance 30%
sells slowly
  • 1× Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0040
  • 4× Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1633
  • 5× AWP | PAW (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0040
Variant 3 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The 2021 Mirage Collection
+24.07 $ +40.0% chance of profit 90%
expensive: M4A1-S | Fatal Glitch (Factory New) · 92.26 $ · chance 45%
sells slowly rare inputs The rarest input sells 11 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 1× Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0059
  • 9× CZ75-Auto | Hydraulics (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0768
Variant 4 The Phoenix Collection instead of The 2021 Mirage Collection
+19.69 $ +59.7% chance of profit 30%
expensive: AK-47 | Redline (Minimal Wear) · 148.20 $ · chance 30%
sells slowly rare inputs The rarest input sells 16 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 1× Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0740
  • 2× SG 553 | Pulse (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1617
  • 7× FAMAS | Sergeant (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1617
Variant 5 The Radiant Collection instead of The 2021 Mirage Collection
+17.49 $ +38.6% chance of profit 90%
expensive: AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Factory New) · 65.27 $ · chance 90%
  • 1× Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0754
  • 5× M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0754
  • 4× M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0048
Variant 6 The Falchion Collection instead of The 2021 Mirage Collection
+14.69 $ +92.4% chance of profit 100%
expensive: AWP | The End (Factory New) · 41.12 $ · chance 40%
sells slowly
  • 4× Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0746
  • 6× Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1632

How to build Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×6
Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT
Field-Tested
buy 0.1500–0.1631
143.45 $
at 23.91
souvenirSteam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.163193f′ (normalized) 0.139450wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 80 · good ≈ 0
Market history: no data yet
×3
Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines
Factory New
buy 0.0000–0.0040
104.80 $
at 34.93
souvenirSteam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.004015f′ (normalized) 0.010852wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 87 · good ≈ 1
Market history: no data yet
×1
Glock-18 | Trace Lock
Factory New
buy 0.0000–0.0040
6.04 $
at 6.04
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.004015f′ (normalized) 0.005736wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 268 · good ≈ 3
Market history: no data yet
Set · 10 pcs 254.29 $ +109.26 (+43.0%) Average float of the set average normalized 0.087499900 result 0.070000, 0.048125, 0.087500 «No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.

What you get 3 outcomes

  • Profitable outcome 45%
  • Losing outcome 55%
in profit
best
Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox
Factory New
665.97 $ 45.00%
price without deals
Steam Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Factory New)net 579.10 you get 0.070000
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 435.28 $ (you get 378.51)) · buy orders: 485 sell on Market.CSGO: 404.53 $ to your card cheapest lot 443.57 · lots 10 on CSFloat: from 344.99 $ listings: 67 on CS.Money: ~ 393.78 $ on Lis-Skins: from 362.92 $ listings: 103
at a loss
MP5-SD | Oxide Oasis
Factory New
258.76 $ 45.00%
price without deals
Steam MP5-SD | Oxide Oasis (Factory New)net 225.01 you get 0.048125
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 220.61 $ (you get 191.84)) · buy orders: 445 sell on Market.CSGO: 188.77 $ to your card cheapest lot 206.99 · lots 6 on CSFloat: from 168.08 $ listings: 20 on CS.Money: ~ 197.10 $ on Lis-Skins: from 187.65 $ listings: 33
at a loss
worst
AWP | The End
Minimal Wear
19.55 $ 10.00%
Steam AWP | The End (Minimal Wear)net 17.00 you get 0.087500The Achroma Collection sells 361 a week sell now to a buy order: 18.78 $ (you get 16.33)) · buy orders: 2707 sell on Market.CSGO: 15.97 $ to your card cheapest lot 17.51 · lots 24 on CSFloat: from 14.79 $ listings: 129 on CS.Money: ~ 16.78 $ on Lis-Skins: from 15.73 $ listings: 292
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