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The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Ancient Collection

Restricted → Classified

Average profit +4 540.69₴

Invest 12 710.54₴

Average return 17 251.23₴

ROI +35.7%

Chance of profit 45%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 30 178.74₴ · profit at most −12 927.51₴ (at most -42.8%) · chance of profit at most 0%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) × 6 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.51 6438.84 → 16161.48 ₴

Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Factory New) × 3 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.26 4703.78 → 10630.54 ₴

Souvenir USP-S | Ancient Visions (Factory New) × 1 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 1567.93 → 3386.72 ₴

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −12 711 ₴

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Ancient Collection

+4 540.69 ₴ +35.7% chance of profit 45%

expensive: Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Factory New) · 25 992.70 ₴ · chance 45%

profit on prices without salesat least −12 711 ₴

6× Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1629
3× Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039
1× Souvenir USP-S | Ancient Visions (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039

Variant 2 The eSports 2013 Collection instead of The 2021 Mirage Collection

+7 876.90 ₴ +55.6% chance of profit 75%

expensive: AK-47 | Red Laminate (Factory New) · 29 244.79 ₴ · chance 25%

profit on prices without salesat least −14 155 ₴

5× Souvenir USP-S | Ancient Visions (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0035
5× Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0741

Variant 3 The Overpass Collection instead of The 2021 Mirage Collection

+6 519.24 ₴ +49.1% chance of profit 100%

expensive: AK-47 | Panthera onca (Factory New) · 23 744.62 ₴ · chance 30%

profit on prices without salesat least −13 272 ₴

6× Souvenir USP-S | Ancient Visions (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0068
4× Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1725

Variant 4 The eSports 2013 Collection instead of The Ancient Collection

+6 510.49 ₴ +45.0% chance of profit 70%

expensive: AK-47 | Red Laminate (Factory New) · 29 244.79 ₴ · chance 20%

profit on prices without salesat least −14 460 ₴

6× Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0036
4× Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0741

Variant 5 The Overpass Collection instead of The Ancient Collection

+6 122.67 ₴ +46.1% chance of profit 70%

expensive: Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Factory New) · 25 992.70 ₴ · chance 30%

profit on prices without salesat least −13 272 ₴

6× Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0062
4× Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1706

Variant 6 only The 2021 Mirage Collection

+5 335.50 ₴ +42.0% chance of profit 50%

expensive: Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Factory New) · 25 992.70 ₴ · chance 50%

profit on prices without salesat least −12 711 ₴

6× Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1627
4× Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0038

How to build

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×6

Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1629

6 438.84 ₴

at 1 073.14

souvenirSteam

×3

Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0039

4 703.78 ₴

at 1 567.93

souvenirSteam

×1

Souvenir USP-S | Ancient Visions

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0039

1 567.93 ₴

at 1 567.93

souvenirSteam

Set · 10 pcs 12 710.54 ₴ +4 540.69 (+35.7%)

What you get 4 outcomes

Profitable outcome 45%
Losing outcome 50%
About break-even 5%

in profit

best

Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox

Factory New

29 891.61 ₴ 45.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

MP5-SD | Oxide Oasis

Factory New

11 614.29 ₴ 45.00%

price without deals

Steam

about break-even

AK-47 | Panthera onca

Minimal Wear

14 135.29 ₴ 5.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

worst

P90 | Run and Hide

Minimal Wear

9 089.92 ₴ 5.00%

price without deals

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week -128.51 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +3 454.59 ₴ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The 2021 Mirage Collection and The Ancient Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

Similar 5 crafts almost like this one

The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 1707314 · The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Spy Tech Collection · profit 4 632.95₴ · invest 11 733.29₴
profit on prices without salesat least −11 608 ₴ rare inputs

CZ75-Auto | Hydraulics (Factory New) instead of Souvenir USP-S | Ancient Visions (Factory New); Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163351 instead of 0.162910; Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Factory New): float at most 0.004063 instead of 0.003929
Craft 1707072 · The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Operation Hydra Collection · profit 4 599.28₴ · invest 12 405.67₴
profit on prices without salesat least −12 217 ₴ rare inputs

SSG 08 | Death's Head (Factory New) instead of Souvenir USP-S | Ancient Visions (Factory New); Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163002 instead of 0.162910; Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Factory New): float at most 0.003957 instead of 0.003929
Craft 1704230 · The 2018 Inferno Collection + The 2021 Mirage Collection · profit 4 575.57₴ · invest 11 720.42₴
profit on prices without salesat least −11 666 ₴ rare inputs

MP7 | Fade (Factory New) instead of Souvenir USP-S | Ancient Visions (Factory New); Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162318 instead of 0.162910; Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Factory New): float at most 0.003748 instead of 0.003929
Craft 1706674 · The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Bank Collection · profit 4 514.67₴ · invest 11 745.21₴
profit on prices without salesat least −11 727 ₴ rare inputs

AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Factory New) instead of Souvenir USP-S | Ancient Visions (Factory New); Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163351 instead of 0.162910; Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Factory New): float at most 0.004063 instead of 0.003929
Craft 1706708 · The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Bravo Collection · profit 4 412.55₴ · invest 12 440.20₴
profit on prices without salesat least −12 019 ₴ rare inputs

USP-S | Overgrowth (Minimal Wear) instead of Souvenir USP-S | Ancient Visions (Factory New); Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested): float at most 0.161928 instead of 0.162910; Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Factory New): float at most 0.003630 instead of 0.003929

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Ancient Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 4 outcomes

More

How to build