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The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Gamma Collection

Restricted → Classified

Average profit +93.27$

Invest 272.48$

Average return 365.76$

ROI +34.2%

Chance of profit 45%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 662.32$ · profit at most −296.56$ (at most -44.8%) · chance of profit at most 0%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) × 4 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.37 95.64 → 226.18 $

Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Factory New) × 5 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.47 174.66 → 431.42 $

Sawed-Off | Limelight (Minimal Wear) × 1 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 2.19 → 4.72 $

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −269 $

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Gamma Collection

+93.27 $ +34.2% chance of profit 45%

expensive: Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Factory New) · 579.10 $ · chance 45%

profit on prices without salesat least −269 $

4× Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1645
5× Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0044
1× Sawed-Off | Limelight (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0750

Variant 2 The Horizon Collection instead of The 2021 Mirage Collection

+30.32 $ +111.8% chance of profit 47%

expensive: M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) · 209.15 $ · chance 13%

sells slowly

6× P90 | Chopper (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0043
4× Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1641

Variant 3 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The 2021 Mirage Collection

+26.19 $ +45.3% chance of profit 93%

expensive: M4A1-S | Fatal Glitch (Factory New) · 92.26 $ · chance 45%

sells slowly

1× P90 | Chopper (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0058
9× CZ75-Auto | Hydraulics (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0766

Variant 4 The Phoenix Collection instead of The 2021 Mirage Collection

+20.15 $ +58.0% chance of profit 33%

expensive: AK-47 | Redline (Minimal Wear) · 148.20 $ · chance 30%

sells slowly

1× Sawed-Off | Limelight (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0743
9× FAMAS | Sergeant (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1625

Variant 5 The Radiant Collection instead of The 2021 Mirage Collection

+19.74 $ +56.3% chance of profit 73%

expensive: M4A4 | Desolate Space (Factory New) · 79.25 $ · chance 13%

rare inputs

4× P90 | Chopper (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0035
1× USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0740
5× M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0740

Variant 6 The Overpass 2024 Collection instead of The 2021 Mirage Collection

+17.73 $ +45.4% chance of profit 80%

expensive: AWP | Crakow! (Factory New) · 83.75 $ · chance 35%

sells slowly

1× Sawed-Off | Limelight (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0744
2× P90 | Chopper (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0038
7× AUG | Eye of Zapems (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0744

How to build

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×4

Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1645

95.64 $

at 23.91

souvenirSteam

×5

Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0044

174.66 $

at 34.93

souvenirSteam

×1

Sawed-Off | Limelight

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0750

2.19 $

at 2.19

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 272.48 $ +93.27 (+34.2%)

profit on prices without sales at least −11 $

8% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 8% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1684

23.91 $

at 23.91

souvenirSteam

×7

Sawed-Off | Limelight

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0764

15.30 $

at 2.19

Steam

×2

P90 | Chopper

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0056

7.43 $

at 3.71

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 46.63 $ +28.71 (+61.6%)

profit on prices without sales at least −39 $

8% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 8% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×2

Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1679

47.82 $

at 23.91

souvenirSteam

×5

Sawed-Off | Limelight

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0762

10.93 $

at 2.19

Steam

×3

P90 | Chopper

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0054

11.14 $

at 3.71

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 69.88 $ +41.76 (+59.8%)

profit on prices without sales at least −66 $

8% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 8% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×3

Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1675

71.73 $

at 23.91

souvenirSteam

×3

Sawed-Off | Limelight

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0761

6.56 $

at 2.19

Steam

×4

P90 | Chopper

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0053

14.85 $

at 3.71

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 93.13 $ +54.81 (+58.9%)

profit on prices without sales at least −198 $

7% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 7% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×4

Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1655

95.64 $

at 23.91

souvenirSteam

×3

Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0047

104.80 $

at 34.93

souvenirSteam

×1

Sawed-Off | Limelight

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0754

2.19 $

at 2.19

Steam

×2

P90 | Chopper

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0047

7.43 $

at 3.71

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 210.04 $ +83.11 (+39.6%)

What you get 5 outcomes

Profitable outcome 45%
Losing outcome 55%

in profit

best

Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox

Factory New

665.97 $ 45.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

MP5-SD | Oxide Oasis

Factory New

258.76 $ 45.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

P2000 | Imperial Dragon

Factory New

28.11 $ 3.33%

Steam

at a loss

M4A4 | Desolate Space

Factory New

91.14 $ 3.33%

Steam

at a loss

worst

SCAR-20 | Bloodsport

Factory New

15.45 $ 3.33%

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week -5.38 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +70.62 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The 2021 Mirage Collection and The Gamma Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

Similar 36 crafts almost like this one

The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

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profit on prices without salesat least −267 $ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −267 $ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −268 $ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −274 $ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −271 $ rare inputs

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Craft 1706713 · The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Breakout Collection · profit 93.35$ · invest 273.29$
profit on prices without salesat least −271 $ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −276 $ rare inputs

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Craft 1706815 · The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit 93.03$ · invest 272.25$
profit on prices without salesat least −270 $ rare inputs

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Craft 1706925 · The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Genesis Collection · profit 92.93$ · invest 271.80$
profit on prices without salesat least −270 $ rare inputs

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Craft 1706860 · The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Falchion Collection · profit 92.76$ · invest 271.45$
profit on prices without salesat least −270 $ rare inputs

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Craft 1706724 · The 2021 Mirage Collection + The CS20 Collection · profit 92.64$ · invest 271.49$
profit on prices without salesat least −271 $ rare inputs

M249 | Aztec (Minimal Wear) instead of Sawed-Off | Limelight (Minimal Wear); Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162039 instead of 0.164546; Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Factory New): float at most 0.003664 instead of 0.004427
Craft 1707272 · The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Spectrum 2 Collection · profit 92.61$ · invest 271.98$
profit on prices without salesat least −270 $ rare inputs

XM1014 | Ziggy (Minimal Wear) instead of Sawed-Off | Limelight (Minimal Wear); Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested): float at most 0.161627 instead of 0.164546; Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Factory New): float at most 0.003538 instead of 0.004427
Craft 1706904 · The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Gamma 2 Collection · profit 92.45$ · invest 272.28$
profit on prices without salesat least −269 $ rare inputs

SG 553 | Triarch (Minimal Wear) instead of Sawed-Off | Limelight (Minimal Wear)
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profit on prices without salesat least −269 $ rare inputs

P90 | Wave Breaker (Minimal Wear) instead of Sawed-Off | Limelight (Minimal Wear); Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested): float at most 0.164151 instead of 0.164546; Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Factory New): float at most 0.004306 instead of 0.004427
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profit on prices without salesat least −270 $ rare inputs

UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Minimal Wear) instead of Sawed-Off | Limelight (Minimal Wear); Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162660 instead of 0.164546; Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Factory New): float at most 0.003853 instead of 0.004427
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profit on prices without salesat least −271 $ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −273 $ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −271 $ rare inputs

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profit on prices without salesat least −270 $ rare inputs

USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear) instead of Sawed-Off | Limelight (Minimal Wear); Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162170 instead of 0.164546; Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Factory New): float at most 0.003703 instead of 0.004427
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profit on prices without salesat least −275 $ rare inputs

Glock-18 | Royal Legion (Minimal Wear) instead of Sawed-Off | Limelight (Minimal Wear)
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profit on prices without salesat least −271 $ rare inputs

PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod (Minimal Wear) instead of Sawed-Off | Limelight (Minimal Wear)
Craft 1707130 · The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Prisma 2 Collection · profit 92.04$ · invest 271.64$
profit on prices without salesat least −270 $ rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Enforcer (Minimal Wear) instead of Sawed-Off | Limelight (Minimal Wear)
Craft 1707195 · The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 92.02$ · invest 271.13$
profit on prices without salesat least −270 $ rare inputs

R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Minimal Wear) instead of Sawed-Off | Limelight (Minimal Wear)
Craft 1707022 · The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Kilowatt Collection · profit 91.84$ · invest 271.22$
profit on prices without salesat least −270 $ rare inputs

Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Minimal Wear) instead of Sawed-Off | Limelight (Minimal Wear)
Craft 1707355 · The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 91.54$ · invest 273.30$
profit on prices without salesat least −273 $ rare inputs

Sawed-Off | Highwayman (Minimal Wear) instead of Sawed-Off | Limelight (Minimal Wear)
Craft 1707182 · The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Recoil Collection · profit 91.54$ · invest 271.37$
profit on prices without salesat least −270 $ rare inputs

R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Minimal Wear) instead of Sawed-Off | Limelight (Minimal Wear)
Craft 1707173 · The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Radiant Collection · profit 91.52$ · invest 276.86$
profit on prices without salesat least −270 $ rare inputs

M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Factory New) instead of Sawed-Off | Limelight (Minimal Wear); Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested): float at most 0.171410 instead of 0.164546; Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Factory New): float at most 0.006516 instead of 0.004427
Craft 1706766 · The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Chroma 3 Collection · profit 91.41$ · invest 272.41$
profit on prices without salesat least −271 $ rare inputs

CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Minimal Wear) instead of Sawed-Off | Limelight (Minimal Wear)
Craft 1706557 · The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Achroma Collection · profit 90.43$ · invest 275.53$
profit on prices without salesat least −271 $ rare inputs

AK-47 | Breakthrough (Minimal Wear) instead of Sawed-Off | Limelight (Minimal Wear); Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162039 instead of 0.164546; Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Factory New): float at most 0.003664 instead of 0.004427
Craft 1707375 · The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Winter Offensive Collection · profit 89.09$ · invest 278.06$
profit on prices without salesat least −276 $ rare inputs

Dual Berettas | Marina (Minimal Wear) instead of Sawed-Off | Limelight (Minimal Wear); Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested): float at most 0.166428 instead of 0.164546; Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Factory New): float at most 0.004999 instead of 0.004427

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Gamma Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 5 outcomes

More

How to build