Crafts · The 2021 Mirage Collection
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The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Harlequin Collection

Restricted → Classified About the craft Craft 1706974 · ways to build: 5 The Steam fee is included. You can sell the outcome a week after crafting.
Average profit Average profitPer craft, Steam fee included: the average over all outcomes with their chances minus the investment. +9 140.83₽
Invest InvestBy the cheapest listings of the right wear, float not counted. The real purchase — after «Check floats on Steam». 22 052.91₽
Average return Average returnAfter the Steam fee, averaged over outcomes with their chances. 31 193.74₽
ROI ROIProfit divided by the investment. +41.5%
Chance of profit Chance of profitThe share of outcomes (by their chances) that pay back the input. 45%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 52 832.76₽ · profit at most −21 639.03₽ (at most -41.0%) · chance of profit at most 0%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.
Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) × 6 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.51 12288.00 → 30842.88 ₽
Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Factory New) × 3 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.26 8976.78 → 20287.52 ₽
USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Factory New) × 1 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 788.13 → 1702.36 ₽

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:
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To calculator I have items
profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −21 855 ₽ Which itemsIf these items are never sold, the profit is at least −21 855 ₽: Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Factory New), MP5-SD | Oxide Oasis (Factory New)

Craft variants Craft variants The same main collection (or the second one) with another partner — a different collection for balance. Numbers come from the same recount as the list. A variant at a loss is shown only if the loss is no more than 15% of the investment, the most expensive outcome brings at least three investments after the fee, and its price is confirmed by sales.

+ a third collection
Variant 1 this one The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Harlequin Collection
+9 140.83 ₽ +41.4% chance of profit 45%
expensive: Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Factory New) · 49 604.97 ₽ · chance 45%
profit on prices without salesat least −21 855 ₽ rare inputs The rarest input sells 3 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 6× Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1631
  • 3× Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0040
  • 1× USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0040
Variant 2 The Horizon Collection instead of The 2021 Mirage Collection
+1 880.12 ₽ +38.6% chance of profit 30%
expensive: M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) · 17 915.19 ₽ · chance 30%
sells slowly float out of reach There are enough lots, but the needed float can't be reached with them: the craft can't be put together with the promised wears right now.
  • 1× USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0040
  • 4× Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1633
  • 5× AWP | PAW (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0040
Variant 3 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The 2021 Mirage Collection
+1 636.86 ₽ +30.2% chance of profit 90%
expensive: M4A1-S | Fatal Glitch (Factory New) · 7 902.74 ₽ · chance 45%
sells slowly rare inputs The rarest input sells 11 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 1× USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0059
  • 9× CZ75-Auto | Hydraulics (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0768
Variant 4 The Phoenix Collection instead of The 2021 Mirage Collection
+1 552.27 ₽ +51.5% chance of profit 30%
expensive: AK-47 | Redline (Minimal Wear) · 12 694.23 ₽ · chance 30%
sells slowly rare inputs The rarest input sells 16 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 1× USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0740
  • 2× SG 553 | Pulse (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1617
  • 7× FAMAS | Sergeant (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1617
Variant 5 The Radiant Collection instead of The 2021 Mirage Collection
+1 157.21 ₽ +28.4% chance of profit 90%
expensive: AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Factory New) · 5 591.22 ₽ · chance 90%
  • 1× USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0754
  • 5× M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0754
  • 4× M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0048
Variant 6 The Overpass 2024 Collection instead of The 2021 Mirage Collection
+642.78 ₽ +14.2% chance of profit 45%
expensive: AWP | Crakow! (Factory New) · 7 174.07 ₽ · chance 45%
sells slowly rare inputs The rarest input sells 8 times a day: slow to buy up, the price will move while you buy.
  • 1× USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0788
  • 6× AUG | Eye of Zapems (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0788
  • 3× XM1014 | Monster Melt (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0077

How to build Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×6
Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT
Field-Tested
buy 0.1500–0.1631
12 288.00 ₽
at 2 048.00
souvenirSteam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.163193f′ (normalized) 0.139450wear 0.1500–0.3800on the market 80 · good ≈ 0
Market history: no data yet
×3
Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines
Factory New
buy 0.0000–0.0040
8 976.78 ₽
at 2 992.26
souvenirSteam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.004015f′ (normalized) 0.010852wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 87 · good ≈ 1
Market history: no data yet
×1
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
Factory New
buy 0.0000–0.0040
788.13 ₽
at 788.13
Steam
BuyLis-SkinsCSFloatMarket.CSGO
Purchase detailsexact upper edge 0.004015f′ (normalized) 0.005736wear 0.0000–0.0700on the market 325 · good ≈ 9
on the market with this float, usually ~9, new per day — can't tell yet, cheapest usually 2 300.00 ₽ · little data: 0.0 d.
Set · 10 pcs 22 052.91 ₽ +9 140.83 (+41.5%) Average float of the set average normalized 0.087499900 result 0.070000, 0.048125, 0.052500 «No higher than» is a guarantee: take every position at the upper limit — you get exactly what is shown.

What you get 3 outcomes

  • Profitable outcome 45%
  • Losing outcome 55%
in profit
best
Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox
Factory New
57 045.72 ₽ 45.00%
price without deals
Steam Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Factory New)net 49604.97 you get 0.070000
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 37 285.67 ₽ (you get 32 422.32)) · buy orders: 485 sell on Market.CSGO: 34 651.69 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 37 995.28 · lots 10 on CSFloat: from 29 551.19 ₽ listings: 67 on CS.Money: ~ 33 730.45 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 31 087.04 ₽ listings: 103
at a loss
MP5-SD | Oxide Oasis
Factory New
22 164.94 ₽ 45.00%
price without deals
Steam MP5-SD | Oxide Oasis (Factory New)net 19273.86 you get 0.048125
by lot · 0 sales per day
sell now to a buy order: 18 897.19 ₽ (you get 16 432.33)) · buy orders: 445 sell on Market.CSGO: 16 170.07 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 17 730.35 · lots 6 on CSFloat: from 14 397.42 ₽ listings: 20 on CS.Money: ~ 16 883.22 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 16 073.75 ₽ listings: 33
at a loss
worst
M4A1-S | Party Animal
Factory New
2 280.00 ₽ 10.00%
Steam M4A1-S | Party Animal (Factory New)net 1982.61 you get 0.052500The Harlequin Collection sells ≈168 a week — 6 of 7 days measured sell now to a buy order: 2 333.22 ₽ (you get 2 028.88)) · buy orders: 4203 sell on Market.CSGO: 1 960.17 ₽ to your card cheapest lot 2 149.31 · lots 15 on CSFloat: from 1 778.26 ₽ listings: 148 on CS.Money: ~ 1 864.78 ₽ on Lis-Skins: from 1 965.85 ₽ listings: 511
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