The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Overpass Collection

Restricted → Classified

Prices by float: this craft wasn't checked against the market overnight (only the best ones are) or there weren't enough listings — the numbers below are by average prices. «Check floats on Steam» will price it by live listings right now.

Average profit +4 535.79₴

Invest 12 603.40₴

Average return 17 139.20₴

ROI +36.0%

Chance of profit 45%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 30 172.42₴ · profit at most −13 033.23₴ (at most -43.2%) · chance of profit at most 0%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) × 5 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.47 5365.70 → 13253.27 ₴

Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Factory New) × 4 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.37 6271.70 → 14832.58 ₴

Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) × 1 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 966.00 → 2086.57 ₴

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −12 603 ₴

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Overpass Collection

+4 535.79 ₴ +36.0% chance of profit 45%

expensive: Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Factory New) · 25 992.70 ₴ · chance 45%

profit on prices without salesat least −12 603 ₴

5× Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1627
4× Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0038
1× Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1627

Variant 2 The eSports 2013 Collection instead of The Overpass Collection

+6 510.49 ₴ +45.0% chance of profit 70%

expensive: AK-47 | Red Laminate (Factory New) · 29 244.79 ₴ · chance 20%

profit on prices without salesat least −14 460 ₴

6× Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0036
4× Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0741

Variant 3 only The 2021 Mirage Collection

+5 335.50 ₴ +42.0% chance of profit 50%

expensive: Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Factory New) · 25 992.70 ₴ · chance 50%

profit on prices without salesat least −12 711 ₴

6× Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1627
4× Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0038

Variant 4 The 2021 Vertigo Collection instead of The Overpass Collection

+5 152.25 ₴ +41.5% chance of profit 50%

expensive: Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Factory New) · 25 992.70 ₴ · chance 45%

profit on prices without salesat least −12 400 ₴

6× Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1627
3× Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0038
1× Souvenir MAG-7 | Prism Terrace (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0038

Variant 5 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The 2021 Mirage Collection

+5 115.51 ₴ +67.1% chance of profit 50%

expensive: M4A1-S | Master Piece (Factory New) · 21 416.52 ₴ · chance 50%

profit on prices without salesat least −6 937 ₴

4× Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1620
1× AWP | Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0741
1× Tec-9 | Whiteout (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1620
1 more

Variant 6 The Glove Collection instead of The Overpass Collection

+5 104.94 ₴ +44.6% chance of profit 45%

expensive: Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Factory New) · 25 992.70 ₴ · chance 45%

profit on prices without salesat least −11 303 ₴

6× Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1625
3× Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0038
1× Nova | Gila (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0038

How to build

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×5

Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1627

5 365.70 ₴

at 1 073.14

souvenirSteam

×4

Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0038

6 271.70 ₴

at 1 567.93

souvenirSteam

×1

Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1627

966.00 ₴

at 966.00

souvenirSteam

Set · 10 pcs 12 603.40 ₴ +4 535.79 (+36.0%)

profit on prices without sales at least −12 496 ₴

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×4

Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1627

4 292.56 ₴

at 1 073.14

souvenirSteam

×4

Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0038

6 271.70 ₴

at 1 567.93

souvenirSteam

×2

Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1627

1 932.01 ₴

at 966.00

souvenirSteam

Set · 10 pcs 12 496.27 ₴ +3 736.07 (+29.9%)

profit on prices without sales at least −12 389 ₴

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×3

Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1627

3 219.42 ₴

at 1 073.14

souvenirSteam

×4

Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0038

6 271.70 ₴

at 1 567.93

souvenirSteam

×3

Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1627

2 898.01 ₴

at 966.00

souvenirSteam

Set · 10 pcs 12 389.13 ₴ +2 936.36 (+23.7%)

profit on prices without sales at least −12 282 ₴

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×2

Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1627

2 146.28 ₴

at 1 073.14

souvenirSteam

×4

Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0038

6 271.70 ₴

at 1 567.93

souvenirSteam

×4

Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1627

3 864.01 ₴

at 966.00

souvenirSteam

Set · 10 pcs 12 282.00 ₴ +2 136.64 (+17.4%)

profit on prices without sales at least −12 175 ₴

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1627

1 073.14 ₴

at 1 073.14

souvenirSteam

×4

Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0038

6 271.70 ₴

at 1 567.93

souvenirSteam

×5

Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1627

4 830.02 ₴

at 966.00

souvenirSteam

Set · 10 pcs 12 174.86 ₴ +1 336.93 (+11.0%)

What you get 3 outcomes

Profitable outcome 45%
Losing outcome 55%

in profit

best

Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox

Factory New

29 891.61 ₴ 45.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

MP5-SD | Oxide Oasis

Factory New

11 614.29 ₴ 45.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

worst

M4A1-S | Master Piece

Minimal Wear

10 324.16 ₴ 10.00%

price without deals

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +98.83 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +3 504.83 ₴ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The 2021 Mirage Collection and The Overpass Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

Similar 10 crafts almost like this one

The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 1707123 · The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Phoenix Collection · profit 4 695.97₴ · invest 11 799.84₴
profit on prices without salesat least −11 545 ₴ rare inputs

FAMAS | Sergeant (Field-Tested) instead of Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested); Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested): float at most 0.165205 instead of 0.162744; Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Factory New): float at most 0.004627 instead of 0.003878
Craft 1706993 · The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Huntsman Collection · profit 4 653.64₴ · invest 12 013.54₴
profit on prices without salesat least −11 935 ₴ rare inputs

AUG | Torque (Factory New) instead of Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested); Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested): float at most 0.165922 instead of 0.162744; Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Factory New): float at most 0.004846 instead of 0.003878
Craft 1707281 · The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Spectrum Collection · profit 4 599.29₴ · invest 11 759.75₴
profit on prices without salesat least −11 642 ₴ rare inputs

M249 | Emerald Poison Dart (Factory New) instead of Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested); Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested): float at most 0.170088 instead of 0.162744; Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Factory New): float at most 0.006114 instead of 0.003878
Craft 1706894 · The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Gallery Collection · profit 4 595.70₴ · invest 11 786.07₴
profit on prices without salesat least −11 742 ₴ rare inputs

P90 | Randy Rush (Factory New) instead of Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested); Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested): float at most 0.166231 instead of 0.162744; Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Factory New): float at most 0.004940 instead of 0.003878
Craft 1706752 · The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Chroma 2 Collection · profit 4 594.41₴ · invest 11 708.88₴
profit on prices without salesat least −11 647 ₴ rare inputs

UMP-45 | Grand Prix (Field-Tested) instead of Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested); Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested): float at most 0.168540 instead of 0.162744; Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Factory New): float at most 0.005642 instead of 0.003878
Craft 1707261 · The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Snakebite Collection · profit 4 559.90₴ · invest 11 723.10₴
profit on prices without salesat least −11 702 ₴ rare inputs

Negev | dev_texture (Factory New) instead of Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested); Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested): float at most 0.166135 instead of 0.162744; Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Factory New): float at most 0.004910 instead of 0.003878
Craft 1707067 · The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Operation Broken Fang Collection · profit 4 513.27₴ · invest 11 970.49₴
profit on prices without salesat least −11 849 ₴ rare inputs

UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Minimal Wear) instead of Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested); Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested): float at most 0.165828 instead of 0.162744; Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Factory New): float at most 0.004817 instead of 0.003878
Craft 1707239 · The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 4 494.05₴ · invest 11 889.96₴
profit on prices without salesat least −11 747 ₴ rare inputs

MP7 | Special Delivery (Factory New) instead of Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested); Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested): float at most 0.166100 instead of 0.162744; Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Factory New): float at most 0.004900 instead of 0.003878
Craft 1706623 · The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Arms Deal 2 Collection · profit 4 458.80₴ · invest 12 109.00₴
profit on prices without salesat least −11 783 ₴ rare inputs

Nova | Graphite (Factory New) instead of Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested); Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested): float at most 0.171210 instead of 0.162744; Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Factory New): float at most 0.006455 instead of 0.003878
Craft 1707378 · The 2021 Mirage Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 4 335.34₴ · invest 12 397.19₴
profit on prices without salesat least −11 906 ₴ rare inputs

Sawed-Off | Orange DDPAT (Field-Tested) instead of Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested)

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Overpass Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 3 outcomes

More

How to build