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The 2021 Mirage Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection

Restricted → Classified

Average profit +6 510.49₴

Invest 14 459.78₴

Average return 20 970.27₴

ROI +45.0%

Chance of profit 70%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 35 561.47₴ · profit at most −14 591.21₴ (at most -41.0%) · chance of profit at most 0%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Factory New) × 6 5% of the wear window fits at least ×2.51 9407.56 → 23612.96 ₴

Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Minimal Wear) × 4 5% of the wear window fits at least ×2.37 5052.22 → 11948.51 ₴

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −14 460 ₴

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The 2021 Mirage Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection

+6 510.49 ₴ +45.0% chance of profit 70%

expensive: AK-47 | Red Laminate (Factory New) · 29 244.79 ₴ · chance 20%

profit on prices without salesat least −14 460 ₴

6× Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0036
4× Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0741

Variant 2 The Overpass Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Collection

+6 122.67 ₴ +46.1% chance of profit 70%

expensive: Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Factory New) · 25 992.70 ₴ · chance 30%

profit on prices without salesat least −13 272 ₴

6× Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0062
4× Souvenir AWP | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1706

Variant 3 only The 2021 Mirage Collection

+5 335.50 ₴ +42.0% chance of profit 50%

expensive: Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Factory New) · 25 992.70 ₴ · chance 50%

profit on prices without salesat least −12 711 ₴

6× Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1627
4× Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0038

Variant 4 The eSports 2013 Winter Collection instead of The 2021 Mirage Collection

+5 216.96 ₴ +57.5% chance of profit 50%

expensive: AK-47 | Red Laminate (Factory New) · 29 244.79 ₴ · chance 25%

profit on prices without salesat least −8 419 ₴

5× Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0743
5× P90 | Blind Spot (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0038

Variant 5 The 2021 Vertigo Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Collection

+5 152.25 ₴ +41.5% chance of profit 50%

expensive: Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Factory New) · 25 992.70 ₴ · chance 45%

profit on prices without salesat least −12 400 ₴

6× Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1627
3× Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0038
1× Souvenir MAG-7 | Prism Terrace (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0038

Variant 6 The Glove Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Collection

+5 104.94 ₴ +44.6% chance of profit 45%

expensive: Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Factory New) · 25 992.70 ₴ · chance 45%

profit on prices without salesat least −11 303 ₴

6× Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1625
3× Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0038
1× Nova | Gila (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0038

How to build

5% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 5% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×6

Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0036

9 407.56 ₴

at 1 567.93

souvenirSteam

×4

Galil AR | Orange DDPAT

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0741

5 052.22 ₴

at 1 263.06

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 14 459.78 ₴ +6 510.49 (+45.0%)

What you get 4 outcomes

Profitable outcome 70%
Losing outcome 30%

in profit

Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox

Factory New

29 891.61 ₴ 30.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

worst

MP5-SD | Oxide Oasis

Factory New

11 614.29 ₴ 30.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

best

AK-47 | Red Laminate

Factory New

33 631.51 ₴ 20.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

AWP | BOOM

Factory New

24 688.68 ₴ 20.00%

price without deals

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +1 661.26 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +5 364.42 ₴ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The 2021 Mirage Collection and The eSports 2013 Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

Similar 3 crafts almost like this one

The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 1710883 · The Ancient Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 7 876.90₴ · invest 14 154.91₴
profit on prices without salesat least −14 155 ₴ rare inputs

Souvenir USP-S | Ancient Visions (Factory New) instead of Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Factory New); Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Minimal Wear): 5 pcs instead of 4; Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074100 instead of 0.074137
Craft 1711706 · The Anubis Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 7 117.38₴ · invest 11 045.18₴
profit on prices without salesat least −11 045 ₴ rare inputs

Nova | Sobek's Bite (Factory New) instead of Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Factory New); Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Minimal Wear): 6 pcs instead of 4; Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074656 instead of 0.074137
Craft 1737711 · The Operation Broken Fang Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 7 080.11₴ · invest 11 476.81₴
profit on prices without salesat least −11 477 ₴ rare inputs

UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Factory New) instead of Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Factory New); Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Minimal Wear): 6 pcs instead of 4; Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074123 instead of 0.074137

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The 2021 Mirage Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 4 outcomes

More

How to build