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The 2021 Train Collection + The Ancient Collection

Restricted → Classified

Average profit +2 916.84₴

Invest 14 813.36₴

Average return 17 730.20₴

ROI +19.7%

Chance of profit 48%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 38 629.20₴ · profit at most −20 898.99₴ (at most -54.1%) · chance of profit at most 0%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

Nova | Red Quartz (Factory New) × 1 9% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 702.03 → 1516.39 ₴

Souvenir USP-S | Ancient Visions (Factory New) × 9 9% of the wear window fits at least ×2.63 14111.33 → 37112.81 ₴

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −14 154 ₴

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The 2021 Train Collection + The Ancient Collection

+2 916.84 ₴ +19.7% chance of profit 48%

expensive: AK-47 | Panthera onca (Factory New) · 23 744.62 ₴ · chance 45%

profit on prices without salesat least −14 154 ₴

1× Nova | Red Quartz (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0060
9× Souvenir USP-S | Ancient Visions (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0060

Variant 2 The Horizon Collection instead of The Ancient Collection

+959.48 ₴ +33.8% chance of profit 40%

expensive: M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New) · 9 387.45 ₴ · chance 30%

sells slowly

1× P2000 | Space Race (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0764
3× Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1684
6× AWP | PAW (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0056

Variant 3 The Phoenix Collection instead of The Ancient Collection

+863.62 ₴ +48.3% chance of profit 40%

expensive: AK-47 | Redline (Minimal Wear) · 6 651.70 ₴ · chance 30%

sells slowly

1× P2000 | Space Race (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0752
1× SG 553 | Pulse (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1650
8× FAMAS | Sergeant (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1650

Variant 4 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The Ancient Collection

+826.68 ₴ +26.4% chance of profit 100%

expensive: M4A1-S | Fatal Glitch (Factory New) · 4 140.99 ₴ · chance 45%

sells slowly

1× Nova | Red Quartz (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0054
9× CZ75-Auto | Hydraulics (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0762

Variant 5 The Radiant Collection instead of The Ancient Collection

+697.23 ₴ +30.3% chance of profit 100%

expensive: USP-S | Whiteout (Minimal Wear) · 3 820.60 ₴ · chance 3.3%

outcome without sales

1× P2000 | Space Race (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0742
5× M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0742
4× M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0037

Variant 6 The Gamma Collection instead of The Ancient Collection

+578.20 ₴ +42.5% chance of profit 40%

expensive: USP-S | Whiteout (Minimal Wear) · 3 820.60 ₴ · chance 3.3%

outcome without sales

1× CZ75-Auto | Syndicate (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1630
6× Sawed-Off | Limelight (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0745
3× P90 | Chopper (Factory New) buy 0.0000–0.0039

How to build

9% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 9% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

Nova | Red Quartz

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0060

702.03 ₴

at 702.03

Steam

×9

Souvenir USP-S | Ancient Visions

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0060

14 111.33 ₴

at 1 567.93

souvenirSteam

Set · 10 pcs 14 813.36 ₴ +2 916.84 (+19.7%)

What you get 5 outcomes

Profitable outcome 48%
Losing outcome 52%

in profit

best

AK-47 | Panthera onca

Factory New

27 306.31 ₴ 45.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

P90 | Run and Hide

Factory New

15 719.82 ₴ 45.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

FAMAS | Meltdown

Factory New

4 162.15 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

worst

MAC-10 | Propaganda

Factory New

3 930.38 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

USP-S | Whiteout

Factory New

22 746.83 ₴ 3.33%

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +179.67 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +1 604.52 ₴ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The 2021 Train Collection and The Ancient Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

Similar 5 crafts almost like this one

The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 1710896 · The Ancient Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 2 895.07₴ · invest 14 363.76₴
profit on prices without salesat least −14 227 ₴ rare inputs

P90 | Virus (Minimal Wear) instead of Nova | Red Quartz (Factory New); Souvenir USP-S | Ancient Visions (Factory New): float at most 0.005645 instead of 0.006005
Craft 1710174 · The Ancient Collection + The Bravo Collection · profit 2 818.58₴ · invest 15 028.09₴
profit on prices without salesat least −14 018 ₴ marketplace price rare inputs

MAC-10 | Graven (Field-Tested) instead of Nova | Red Quartz (Factory New); Souvenir USP-S | Ancient Visions (Factory New): float at most 0.003918 instead of 0.006005
Craft 1710635 · The Ancient Collection + The Prisma Collection · profit 2 779.80₴ · invest 14 169.98₴
profit on prices without salesat least −14 113 ₴ rare inputs

MP5-SD | Gauss (Minimal Wear) instead of Nova | Red Quartz (Factory New); Souvenir USP-S | Ancient Visions (Factory New): float at most 0.005963 instead of 0.006005
Craft 1710636 · The Ancient Collection + The Prisma Collection · profit 2 732.41₴ · invest 14 169.98₴
profit on prices without salesat least −14 104 ₴ rare inputs

MP5-SD | Gauss (Minimal Wear) instead of Nova | Red Quartz (Factory New); Souvenir USP-S | Ancient Visions (Factory New): float at most 0.006646 instead of 0.006005
Craft 1710694 · The Ancient Collection + The Revolver Case Collection · profit 2 717.77₴ · invest 14 310.47₴
profit on prices without salesat least −14 225 ₴ rare inputs

XM1014 | Teclu Burner (Factory New) instead of Nova | Red Quartz (Factory New); Souvenir USP-S | Ancient Visions (Factory New): float at most 0.006539 instead of 0.006005

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The 2021 Train Collection + The Ancient Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 5 outcomes

More

How to build