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The 2021 Train Collection + The Prisma Collection

Classified → Covert

Average profit +7 789.18₽

Invest 8 555.00₽

Average return 16 344.18₽

ROI +91.0%

Chance of profit 47%

If buying now (with float)

invest at least 21 016.80₽ · profit at most −4 672.62₽ (at most -22.2%) · chance of profit at most 47%

An estimate from the market at the time of the measurement: cheap lots with the needed float may have been bought out or relisted — this is a check, not a forecast. “Check floats on Steam” shows the real price now.

The float limit is tighter than the markup table — less than 30% of the wear window fits. The purchase will cost at least the shown number of times more; how much more — no data, so the investment is “at least” and the profit is “at most”.

MAC-10 | Propaganda (Field-Tested) × 1 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.16 3155.00 → 6814.80 ₽

XM1014 | Incinegator (Field-Tested) × 9 6% of the wear window fits at least ×2.63 5400.00 → 14202.00 ₽

Markup — analysis table from lot books 25–26.09.2026: how many times the N cheapest lots with the needed float cost more than the cheapest lot of the wear; it depends on what share of the wear window fits and on the number of pieces.

Check:

Buy on Sell on

profit on prices without sales If these items are never sold, the profit is at least −7 858 ₽

Craft variants

+ a third collection

Variant 1 this one The 2021 Train Collection + The Prisma Collection

+7 789.18 ₽ +91.0% chance of profit 47%

expensive: M4A4 | The Coalition (Factory New) · 134 083.75 ₽ · chance 1.7%

profit on prices without salesat least −7 858 ₽

1× MAC-10 | Propaganda (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1646
9× XM1014 | Incinegator (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1646

Variant 2 The Shadow Collection instead of The 2021 Train Collection

+1 132.77 ₽ +16.5% chance of profit 80%

expensive: USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear) · 9 250.39 ₽ · chance 40%

rare inputs

1× XM1014 | Incinegator (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1623
1× R8 Revolver | Skull Crusher (Field-Tested) buy 0.2500–0.2569
8× G3SG1 | Flux (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1623

Variant 3 The Revolution Collection instead of The 2021 Train Collection

+1 066.45 ₽ +29.4% chance of profit 100%

expensive: M4A4 | The Emperor (Minimal Wear) · 6 411.11 ₽ · chance 5.0%

1× XM1014 | Incinegator (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1618
9× UMP-45 | Wild Child (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1618

Variant 4 The Dead Hand Collection instead of The Prisma Collection

+684.51 ₽ +7.4% chance of profit 92%

expensive: M4A4 | The Coalition (Minimal Wear) · 38 683.37 ₽ · chance 1.7%

rare inputs

1× FAMAS | Meltdown (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0754
7× P90 | Deathgaze (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1657
2× P250 | Kintsugi (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0754

Variant 5 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The 2021 Train Collection

+27 114.35 ₽ +176.4% chance of profit 95%

expensive: AK-47 | Jaguar (Factory New) · 69 906.13 ₽ · chance 45%

profit on prices without salesat least −15 375 ₽

1× R8 Revolver | Skull Crusher (Field-Tested) buy 0.2500–0.2567
2× AUG | Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1618
7× P2000 | Corticera (Minimal Wear) buy 0.0700–0.0741

Variant 6 The 2021 Vertigo Collection instead of The Prisma Collection

+23 961.25 ₽ +33.1% chance of profit 90%

expensive: M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Field-Tested) · 105 831.57 ₽ · chance 90%

profit on prices without salesat least −71 877 ₽

1× MAC-10 | Propaganda (Battle-Scarred) buy 0.4500–0.4736
9× Souvenir Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard (Field-Tested) buy 0.1500–0.1820

How to build

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (by listings)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×1

MAC-10 | Propaganda

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1646

3 155.00 ₽

at 3 155.00

Steam

×9

XM1014 | Incinegator

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1646

5 400.00 ₽

at 600.00

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 8 555.00 ₽ +7 789.18 (+91.0%)

profit on prices without sales at least −16 999 ₽

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (estimate)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×2

FAMAS | Meltdown

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0747

6 525.96 ₽

at 3 262.98

Steam

×2

MAC-10 | Propaganda

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0747

8 675.36 ₽

at 4 337.68

Steam

×6

R8 Revolver | Skull Crusher

Field-Tested

buy 0.2500–0.2577

4 586.46 ₽

at 764.41

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 19 787.78 ₽ +881.71 (+4.5%)

profit on prices without sales at least −10 096 ₽

6% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (by listings)

Price understated: only 6% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×2

FAMAS | Meltdown

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0744

6 525.96 ₽

at 3 262.98

Steam

×7

XM1014 | Incinegator

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1628

4 200.00 ₽

at 600.00

Steam

×1

R8 Revolver | Skull Crusher

Field-Tested

buy 0.2500–0.2572

764.41 ₽

at 764.41

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 11 490.37 ₽ +6 295.58 (+54.8%)

profit on prices without sales at least −12 719 ₽

5% of lots fit ≈ enough for 0 contracts · hard (by listings)

Price understated: only 5% of lots fit, and a rare float costs more than a regular one. The database has the item's average price, without float — the real purchase will cost more.

×3

FAMAS | Meltdown

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0740

9 788.94 ₽

at 3 262.98

Steam

×2

XM1014 | Incinegator

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1616

1 200.00 ₽

at 600.00

Steam

×5

R8 Revolver | Skull Crusher

Field-Tested

buy 0.2500–0.2565

3 822.05 ₽

at 764.41

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 14 810.99 ₽ +4 416.73 (+29.8%)

What you get 8 outcomes

Profitable outcome 47%
Losing outcome 45%
About break-even 8%

at a loss

worst

Five-SeveN | Angry Mob

Factory New

8 855.00 ₽ 45.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

M4A4 | The Emperor

Factory New

25 420.55 ₽ 45.00%

price without deals

Steam

about break-even

Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Emerald)

Factory New

9 622.48 ₽ 1.67%

pricier variants exist

Steam

about break-even

Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Phase 1)

Factory New

9 622.48 ₽ 1.67%

pricier variants exist

Steam

about break-even

Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Phase 2)

Factory New

9 622.48 ₽ 1.67%

pricier variants exist

Steam

about break-even

Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Phase 3)

Factory New

9 622.48 ₽ 1.67%

pricier variants exist

Steam

about break-even

Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Phase 4)

Factory New

9 622.48 ₽ 1.67%

pricier variants exist

Steam

in profit

best

M4A4 | The Coalition

Factory New

154 196.31 ₽ 1.67%

price without deals

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +6 017.64 ₽ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +7 343.90 ₽ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items enter their float — I'll pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The 2021 Train Collection and The Prisma Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set is its share in the chances. Your items are counted at market price in the full profit — you could sell them; separately shown is how much money you need to buy the rest now.

Third collection add one more to the craft's pair — it may pay more

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried — 1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest — and all outcome wears; the best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates the five most promising exactly.

Similar 1 craft almost like this one

The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes — profit and investment differ by less than 0.5%; or the same nine items with a different tenth — profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%; or the same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler — profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 1737812 · The Operation Hydra Collection + The Prisma Collection · profit 8 526.03₽ · invest 10 276.28₽
profit on prices without salesat least −10 276 ₽ rare inputs

Dual Berettas | Cobra Strike (Field-Tested) instead of MAC-10 | Propaganda (Field-Tested); XM1014 | Incinegator (Field-Tested): float at most 0.164162 instead of 0.164620

How to read these numbers

«No higher than» — a guarantee, not a wish. The limits are calculated together: take all items at the upper bound at once — you get exactly what's shown. Take better — you get better.

f' — the same float, scaled to 0–1 by the skin's own range. Same as on csfloat.

Fees. The seller gets the listed price divided by 1.15, not multiplied by 0.85 — the fee is included in the buyer's price.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but sell you'll get it in seven days: during the week the price will move, and the number shown is an estimate at calculation time, not cash in hand.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the lot price and the sale price. Purchases — at the cheapest lot, and that is a lower bound: buying ten you climb the order book. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The 2021 Train Collection + The Prisma Collection

If buying now (with float)

How to build i Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then the most accessible. A tab makes the way current — the tiles and outcomes are recalculated for it.

What you get 8 outcomes

More

How to build